Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK TO
MODERATE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MID TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED...MODERATELY LARGE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE. BUT TREND IS FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS AS FRONT/MOISTURE
APPEARS FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT FOCUS IN
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE.
BUT FRONT AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG COASTAL CAROLINA
AND MODELS TRENDING DRIER FOR MIDLANDS/CSRA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING CHANCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH FOCUS IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.

VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TAF SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 30/04Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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