Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301506
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWA
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH LEAVES THE CWA BASICALLY DRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AREA WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SLIGHT
WARMING EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SOME FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL...BUT
CONFIDENCE TO HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PLACE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









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