Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 300525
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
125 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in
moisture for the weekend. Chances of thunderstorms will increase
through the weekend. Temperatures will lower a few degrees...however
afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s
through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Instability has weakened with sunset, and most scattered shower
activity across the east has diminished. Still can not rule out an
isolated shower anywhere across the cwa overnight, but majority of
the area will by dry for the remainder of the night. Winds weaken
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper
70s once again.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough stretching through the OH and MS valley region
will slowly shift eastward through the weekend providing a better
chance for storms than in recent days. Lee side troughing will
continue while a frontal boundary remains across the Mid-Atlantic
states, well north of the forecast area. Abundant moisture will be
across the area both Saturday and Sunday with precipitable water
values generally around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. The 12Z NAM shows weak
instability on Saturday but stronger instability on Sunday. The
biggest threats with strong storms would be damaging winds and
small hail. High temperatures are forecast above normal both days,
in the upper 90s. Heat index values will generally be around 105
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in relatively good agreement showing an
upper level trough over the eastern US on Monday with shortwave
energy circulating through it. The trough axis slips off the
coast on Tuesday as an upper ridge builds over the center of the
country. The ridge slowly shifts east through the end of the
period. A frontal boundary is forecast to be near the NC/SC border
on Monday and may be a focus for storm activity. The deepest
moisture is forecast to be in the eastern portion of the area for
Monday. Drier air will move into the area from the north for
Tuesday so have lowered pops north. Generally expect diurnally
driven isolated/scattered convection Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper ridge expands east. Above normal high temperatures are
forecast throughout the long term with values generally in the mid
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF forecast
Some mid level clouds spreading northeast from north Georgia
overnight. Winds will be light and variable through daybreak with
no low level jet. Fog not expected. Scattered afternoon cumulus. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and
evening as the upper ridge weakens with a trough moving into the
Ohio Valley. Low threat for convection to impact terminals. Winds
should pick up from the west around 10 knots after 15z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.