Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
229 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Tropical depression two is currently about 190 miles south
southeast of Charleston and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph.
Strengthening to a tropical storm is expected tonight with the
storm reaching the Charleston coast Sunday morning. Sunday
afternoon the storm is expected to to northeasterly and move very
slowly along the coast Monday and Tuesday. Chances of rain will
increase over the area through Sunday the lower for Monday and
Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall through
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical depression 2 remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Area WSR-88D network shows showers beginning to reach the coast
with a few isolated showers reaching the eastern Midlands. Winds
currently across the area are 5 to 8 mph with winds along the
coast around 10 mph. Showers have begun moving into the far
eastern Midlands and will expand into the central Midlands late
this afternoon and the western Midlands this evening. Although
there is potential for thunderstorms currently coverage remains
limited so will remain with slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds
overnight will accelerate slowly with the eastern Midlands seeing
around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph by daybreak Sunday and lower
speeds elsewhere. Main concern overnight will be potential for
locally heavy rain...however with highest moistures not arriving
until late in the period do not expect any flooding issues
overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track for
the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the middle to upper
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.
Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening with MVFR for much of
Tropical depression 2 continues to approach the SC coast and will
be just off the CHS coast by daybreak Sunday. Clouds associated
with a large area of convection on the northwest side of the storm
continue to move onshore and will move into the taf sites over
the next several hours. Due to the isolated nature of
thunderstorms associated with the system have remained without
mention of thunder in the tafs. Main concern through the period
will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall...with the
greatest chance of heavy rain toward daybreak Sunday at
CAE/CUB/OGB. Winds will slowly accelerate overnight with gusts up
to 17 knots beginning around 10z at OGB and 14z elsewhere
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.