Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 181947
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north
as a warm front tonight into Monday morning. Bermuda high
pressure will be in control Monday night through Thursday
bringing near record high temperatures. Another frontal boundary
may affect the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: Surface front is south of the cwa, with weak
high pressure north of the area bringing northeasterly winds.
Clouds and an isolated shower with low qpf will be possible
across the southern counties closer to the front. Central and
northern counties will remain dry forecast will be on tap for
the remainder of the day. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70
degrees.

Tonight: The surface high moves further east, allowing the low-
level winds to turn more easterly. This will bring moisture
back into the area. It will also allow the surface front to the
south to begin slowly pushing back north as a warm front through
the night. Weak isentropic lift overnight will bring additional
cloud cover and isolated showers. However, the highest rain
chances will remain further off to the west and north through
the night. Will only have a slight chance to possible low chance
pops across the western and northern counties late tonight.
Remaining portions of the cwa will remain dry through the night.
Fog may become an issue late tonight and towards morning with
the warm front moving through, and with the increase in low-
level moisture. For now have only included mention of patchy fog
late tonight, but can not rule out more widespread fog
formation towards sunrise on Monday. Kept lows in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night...frontal boundary will begin Monday
just north of the forecast area and slowly move northward away
from the area through Monday night. This will result in mostly
cloudy skies and patchy fog to start the day with the fog
burning off by mid morning. During the afternoon hours high
pressure will begin building into the region with the upper
level ridge also building over the eastern US. While the
southeasterly surface winds and southerly winds aloft will
transport moisture into the area the inversion will take time to
burn off resulting in stratus clouds persisting into the
afternoon hours and little time for diurnal heating to develop
cumulus clouds. As such expect mostly cloudy skies through
midday becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. Monday night
the moisture will remain through the night and with a developing
inversion and light winds aloft expect fog to again develop
during the early morning and sunrise hours. Temperatures Monday
will range from the upper 60s over the northern and western
Midlands to the upper 70s in the southern CSRA...with overnight
lows in the middle to upper 50s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...high pressure will continue building
into the region with southerly flow from the surface through the
mid levels. This will again keep Gulf moisture flowing into the
forecast area with the strong inversion taking through the
midday hours to again burn off. This will again result in mostly
cloudy skies during the morning with decreasing clouds through
the afternoon. Tuesday night a short wave will move northward
from the Gulf of Mexico through central GA and into Upstate SC.
This will keep the short wave just west of the forecast area
however there is potential for some showers mainly in the
northern CSRA and western Midlands Monday night. Temperatures
will be in the mid 70s to around 80 for afternoon highs with low
60s for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue in good agreement with high pressure off the
coast of the Carolinas and an upper level ridge dominating the
region. A cold front will move toward the region Wednesday night
and Thursday then stall just west of the forecast area as the
high pressure and upper level ridge push the system northward.
The front will move northward Thursday night through early
Saturday with the next front approaching Saturday night and
Sunday. Have taken a cautious approach for Saturday night and
Sunday as the GFS remains more progressive while the ECMWF again
keeps the front just to the northwest of the area. Temperatures
through the long term will be well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions can be expected at all taf sites through the
afternoon hours as a cold front stalls out just south of the
area. An isolated shower may be possible closer to the front
near ags/dnl/ogb, but will keep out of tafs for now. As the
front begins to slowly push back northward later tonight, and
Atlantic moisture moves back inland on easterly low-level winds,
ceilings are expected to begin dropping back down into mvfr
between 02-04z, then ifr conditions after 04z. Visibilities will
also be deteriorating towards sunrise on monday. With the
combination of both ceilings and visibilities dropping late
tonight, can not rule out the possibly of lifr conditions
developing by Monday morning. Best chance for scattered showers
should remain well west and north of all taf sites, while
isolated showers possible through the night elsewhere as the
front moves through. Have not mentioned any showers in current
forecast due to limited coverage.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of showers/restrictions
through Wednesday associated with onshore flow, isentropic lift,
and then another approaching cold front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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