Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211006
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
606 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will occur over the forecast area through Saturday.
The upper feature will weaken somewhat Sunday with troughing
beginning to develop Monday. A surface pressure ridge will
extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. North
of the ridge weak troughing will be in the forecast area this
weekend. This troughing will become more pronounced and moisture
will increase early next week ahead of a cold front. It will
remain hot over the weekend and early next week with heat index
values peaking around 105.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Bermuda surface ridging will continue to extend westward along the
Gulf Coast. North of the ridge weak lee-side troughing will be in
the forecast area. The models show the upper ridge axis extending
eastward through North Carolina and more dominate in the region
with the weak upper low over the northern Gulf Coast drifting
westward and farther away from the forecast area. Deeper
moisture is depicted suppressed south of the forecast area
closer to the upper feature with mid-level temperatures slightly
higher in the forecast area compared to yesterday. The pattern
supports a diminished thunderstorm chance. All the GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF MOS have pops 20 percent or less. The high-resolution
models display isolated coverage at most. The MOS supports high
temperatures near 100 with heat index values peaking around
105...a little below the heat advisory criteria of 110. The
thunderstorm chance should further diminish tonight with the
loss of heating. The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Bermuda surface ridging will continue to extend westward along
the Gulf Coast. North of the ridge lee-side troughing will be
in the forecast area. The models show the upper ridge axis extending
eastward trough North Carolina weakening slightly Sunday. The lee-
side troughing is also depicted a little more pronounced with a
little more moisture Sunday. Still, the thunderstorm chance should
be limited by somewhat shallow moisture and relatively high mid-
level temperatures associated with the lingering ridge. The guidance
consensus supports pops around 10 percent Saturday and 20 percent
Sunday. It will remain hot. The MOS has high temperatures in the
middle 90s to near 100 with heat index values peaking around
105...a little below the heat advisory criteria of 110.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico during the medium-
range period. North of the ridge lee-side troughing is shown in
the forecast area. A slow moving front may be in the region
Tuesday through Thursday. The models display upper troughing
developing early next week with increased moisture. The pattern
supports an increased chance of thunderstorms. The GFS and ECMWF
MOS have pops 30 to 40 percent during the period. The MOS
continues to show hot conditions early in the week. Expect
highs mainly 95 to 100 with heat index values near 105. Somewhat
lower temperatures should occur during the rest of the period
associated with upper troughing and more cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for a majority of the TAF period, except
for possible MVFR visibility at OGB and AGS this morning.

Latest NAM Bufkit soundings only show a 15 knot low level jet,
and humidities at OGB and AGS are already over 90 percent, so
have included tempo groups between 08 and 12Z with MVFR
visibility. Ridging will prevail over the area today which
should limit convective potential, but cannot rule out isolated
afternoon or evening storms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation related
issues expected at this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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