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000
FXUS62 KCAE 251819
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
REVOLVES AROUND MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HOW CLOUD COVER MAY
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH OUT OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE MIDWEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
CIRRUS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THE CANADIAN SIMULATED CLOUD PRODUCT...WHICH HAS
PERFORMED WELL FOR QUITE SOME TIME...IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS AND WAS FAVORED OVER NAM/GFS. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES AND THINK THEY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN A TIED
RECORD LOW AT COLUMBIA METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND REMAINING IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST DURING
PERIOD GIVING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
AROUND 80 SUNDAY INCREASE TO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID-WEEK ON INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEAR TO DOMINATE. THIS RIDGE
APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS AND FOR
THAT MATTER ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF OVER 14 HOURS OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 90 DEGREE
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD. DID MENTION A FEW 90 DEGREE HIGHS BY
FRIDAY BUT ANY DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SEE SOME 90 DEGREE
HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD GO CALM OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. FOG POTENTIAL LOW OVERALL...ALTHOUGH
OGB/AGS MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HC
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...TTH
LONG TERM...TTH
AVIATION...HC