Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 232314
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
714 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region will
extend southward into our area through Monday. High pressure will
weaken a bit as Hurricane Maria moves northward off the Carolina
coast Monday through Thursday. Above normal temperatures will cool
for the end of next week behind a moisture limited cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A dry airmass remains in place through the overnight hours.
Even with mostly clear skies tonight, with the dry air in place
and some low-level mixing from a weak nocturnal jet, widespread fog
is not expected since conditions not ideal. Expect mostly clear
skies and temperatures in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge over the Northeastern and Mid Atlantic States
will continue extending into the Carolinas through Monday. A weak
upper low will drift westward along the Gulf Coast states as Maria
moves northward well off the FL/GA coast. Aside from increased waves
and swells along the coast no impacts are expected from Hurricane
Maria. Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley
will extend across much of the eastern half of the country. A north
to northeast low level wind flow will keep a relatively dry airmass
across the region. Models have been consistently showing above
normal temperatures with with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models show a pattern shift taking place for the latter half of next
week. The trough/ridge over the west/east on Tuesday will transition
to a ridge/trough over the west/east by Friday.

Surface high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the
Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday will weaken as Maria moves
northward off the Carolina coast through Thursday. Although the
official track of Maria has shifted slightly westward, Maria is
forecast to remain offshore with no impacts for Midlands and
CSRA...other than an increase in clouds and wind. A moisture limited
frontal boundary moving through on Friday will bring cooler
temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure ridging into the mid-Atlantic will continue to
push drier air into the region. Models suggest a stronger low
level jet and drier low levels overnight than the previous
night. Scattered mid and high clouds are also expected
through the night, which will limit radiational cooling.
Therefore, the threat of widespread fog appears low. However
fog prone areas, including AGS, may still see some shallow
ground fog or low stratus given light winds and persistence
forecasting. Model guidance is consistent suggesting VFR
conditions at all TAF sites.

Scattered mid and high clouds expected again on Sunday, but high
pressure and mid-level capping inversion should limit
convection.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus possible each morning...mainly at the fog prone
sites AGS and OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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