Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 051554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1054 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME- FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
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