Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 290130
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
930 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridging over the region will weaken on Monday as a frontal
boundary slowly slides into the area. The front will stall over
the area Tuesday with chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Will cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch at 930 pm. Convection has
moved east of the area. Short wave trough trigger moving
through the area with lift now east of the area. lows around 70
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will continue moving toward the area on Monday
as the upper level ridge further weakens. Monday night the
front will move into the forecast area and stall across the area
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Main focus for the short term will
be convective potential as well as potential for severe
thunderstorms. Instability on Monday will be moderate to strong
with LIs around -5 and CAPE around around 1500 J/Kg. With dry
air in the mid and upper levels there will be potential for
damaging winds and with wet bulb zero rising to around 12 KFt
the potential for hail will be lower. With intersecting
boundaries and instability into Monday night expect scattered
convection into the overnight hours. SPC continues to have the
area under a slight risk for Monday as well. Temperatures Monday
afternoon will be in the lower 90s with lows Monday night in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday will be similar...however with the front stalling over
the area expect the best chances for convection to along and
south of the front. Instability Tuesday will be strong and with
dry air persisting in the mid and upper levels will again see
potential for damaging winds and lower threat of hail. With a
weak pressure gradient there is also potential for a sea
breeze...models currently depict this remaining near the coast
and triggering convection however if this moves further inland
this could trigger additional convection. Tuesday afternoon
highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in good agreement into next weekend as the weak
surface front remains stalled over the region and a series of
weak upper level disturbances cross the area. This will keep
chances of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast each day through Sunday. Concern with convection for
Thursday onward will be potential for heavy rainfall as high
pressure over the western Atlantic will result in southerly flow
and open the area to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures through the long term will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

A majority of the thunderstorm activity has ended with the loss
of daytime heating this evening. No fog is expected to develop
overnight due to a 25 knot low level jet. A frontal boundary
near the area will promote a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing and exact
location is too low to include in current TAF issuance. Winds
will be light overnight and will pick up after daybreak on
Monday out of the west-southwest to around 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will stall over the
region through early next week. The front will help support
scattered thunderstorms and possible restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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