Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 242036
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
236 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Tuesday)

A vigorous upper-level low pressure system continues to lift across
the northern plains late this afternoon, with a narrow plume of mid
and high level moisture extending across eastern WY wrapping around
the back side of the system. We still have plenty of H25 jet energy
over the area today with much of the CWA in the left exit region of
a 120-knot jet through at least 06z. This should continue to result
in scattered to numerous showers through this evening. Temperatures
may become cold enough for snow along/west of the Laramie Range but
dynamics and moisture availability should not support accumulations
like we saw last night. Beyond 12z Sunday, considerable drying will
occur beneath a building upper-level ridge w/ no chances for precip
through the remainder of the period. A warming trend is expected as
H7 temperatures slowly climb back to around +10C by Mon/Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A quiet weather pattern is expected next week with mainly dry
conditions through the end of the week. All models show the upper
level ridge axis remaining over Great Plains through Thursday
before some shortwave energy begins to lift northeast across the
Rocky Mountains by Friday. High temperatures will generally be in
the 70`s to low 80`s across most of the forecast area...with the
warmest temperatures across the lower elevations of western
Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming. Highs may remain in the upper
60`s west of Interstate 25 later in the week as some mid to high
clouds enter the region. For late Friday and Saturday...there is a
chance of some shower activity and isolated thunder across the
mountains and eastern plains as two shortwave disturbances move
out of the Great Basin region. Kept POP around 20 percent in those
locations with slightly cooler temperatures. Further out...models
indicate a rather strong storm system moving across the Pacific NW
for the weekend with 700mb temperatures ranging from -5c to -10c
behind the cold front. This will likely be the next system to
monitor as winds and winter weather impacts are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through Sunday morning)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

MVFR conditions will likely continue at KRWL this afternoon and into
this evening with low CIGS and scattered rain showers. VFR
conditions will prevail at KLAR and KCYS...but periods of MVFR CIGS
are expected as rain showers push further east and dissipate near
the Laramie Range. VFR will continue across the western Nebraska
terminals with West winds shifting into the northwest with gusts up
to 30 to 35 knots this afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

No fire weather concerns over the next few days w/ cooler afternoon
temperatures and resultant higher minimum RH values. Winds over the
next 12 to 24 hours will be breezy at times, but overall conditions
will be outside of critical thresholds.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH


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