Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 212321
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
Splendid spring weather continues, in February. A clear sky will
continue this afternoon, with temperatures approaching record
levels in the mid to upper 70s. SW downslope winds of 10-20 mph at
midday will weaken by sunset.
Tonight...Increasing mid/high clouds and a light downslope SW
wind of 5-15 mph will work together to keep temperatures again
unseasonably mild for February. Expecting all locations to remain
above freezing, ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE.
Wednesday...Continued unseasonably warm, with 70s for all zones
during the afternoon, near 80 along the Oklahoma border. Per GFS
soundings, introduced a period of mid/high overcast for several
hours during the morning. Winds will be variable in direction,
starting out SW in the morning, light and variable during the
afternoon, then increasing from the SE late in the day in response
to lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
Dry weather will prevail across SW Kansas. The only exception to
this is a possible period of rain or wet snow across the far NE
counties Thursday evening. With dry weather persisting, that only
leaves winds, temperature swings and fire weather concerns for
Thursday...Strong shortwave over southern Utah at 6 am will race
into western Kansas by 6 pm. As a result, strong cyclogenesis is
expected across SW KS during the afternoon hours (12z ECMWF
depicts 988 mb surface low near Kinsley around 4 pm). Exactly
where this surface low tracks Thursday will have an impact on
temperatures, wind fields, and where the fire danger will be
highest. Along with WFOs AMA/OUN, increased winds south and SW of
Dodge City, where gusts near 40 mph are likely from Elkhart to
Liberal. Critical fire conditions are likely across far SW zones,
potentially extremely critical along the Oklahoma border.
A healthy temperature gradient is expected, ranging from near 60
north to near 80 south. An increase in clouds for a time Thursday
morning, followed by clearing behind the departing surface
Thursday night...12z ECMWF continues to clip Trego/Ellis counties
(I-70 corridor) with wraparound rain and/or wet snow for several
hours Thursday evening. GFS, with its further north cyclone track,
is completely dry across these areas. After coordination with
ICT/GLD/GID, kept the slight chance pops offered by the model
blend. System looks very progressive, which will make meaningful
precipitation across our NE zones difficult to achieve. Primary
impact Thursday night will be strong cold gusty NW winds behind
the cold front.
Friday...Windy and sharply colder. Any wraparound light snow
expected to remain north of SW KS, although stratus may invade the
northern zones. Temperatures actually below normal for a change,
struggling into the low to mid 40s, with wind chills in the 20s
and 30s. Not unusual for late February, but this winter it will be
Friday night/Saturday morning...Cold. Models show consistency
with Canadian surface high settling directly over SW KS. A hard
freeze for all, with teens common across the NW CWA.
This weekend...Continued dry with slowly moderating temperatures.
Much warmer temperatures expected again early next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
Weak upper level ridging will be in place over the central High Plains
through the period. This also translates to a weak surface pressure
gradient across central and western Kansas. Surface winds will be
light and variable through the period but could increase to around
10 knots from the northwest late in the period. There could also
be some marginal LLWS conditions toward sunrise on Wednesday.
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
Unseasonably warm temperatures and low relative humidity
persists today and Wednesday in SW Kansas. However, wind will
be less than 20 mph both days. Despite relatively light wind,
elevated fire weather conditions exists for most of the fire zones
today and far Southwest Kansas tomorrow during the day.
Critical fire weather conditions will exist on Thursday day,
however, what locations will be affected most depends on where a
surface low tracks, which will greatly increase winds up to 40
mph in these locations. Currently, the thinking is that critical
fire conditions are likely across far SW zones, potentially
extremely critical along the Oklahoma border. Essentially, burning
activities on Thursday is strongly advised against.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 79 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 39 77 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 44 80 45 68 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 42 81 46 72 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 44 75 41 61 / 0 0 0 10
P28 42 79 46 76 / 0 0 10 0