Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122303
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...updated aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Somewhat a messy aviation period. KDDC will start VFR tonight but may
end up seeing low end VFR (sct050) by midnight or later. Some mid level
clouds will linger through the rest of the TAF period. For KGCK, MVFR
cigs expected by 06Z and continuing through mid morning. Also put a
PROB30 in from 09-12Z for freezing drizzle. Cigs may lower even to IFR
in association with this. For KHYS, MVFR to IFR cigs will prevail through
much of the TAF pd. Winds will be NE then switch S/SE and increase 15-25
kt tomorrow around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  10  10   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden


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