Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HEADING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN STATES, AS
WELL AS A COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WAS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND PROVIDED BY
OTHERWISE EFFICIENT, FULL INSOLATION. THE MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE SPATIALLY THIS AFTERNOON; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LIMITED SURFACE MIXING THAT OCCURS, BUT DROP OFF RAPIDLY AROUND 5 PM
TO LIGHT AS THE SUN ANGLE RAPIDLY DECLINES.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY MAY CROSS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FREEZE WARNING REQUIREMENTS. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
SHOWS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 15 UTC
FRIDAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES COOLER
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, WE WILL
NOT UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT RATHER WAIT FOR
FOLLOW UP RUNS TO BETTER CHOOSE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON
06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
AS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS LOCATED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  35  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



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