


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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721 FXUS63 KEAX 140758 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Areas of dense fog this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory in effect for portions north central to central Missouri and eastward until 9 am. * Hot and humid conditions return Wednesday with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values of 100-105. * Chances for showers and storms return late Wednesday and continue Thursday into Friday. Strong storms looks possible Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 This morning, areas of dense fog have formed as a very humid air mass resides over the area. With no changeover in the air mass from yesterday, crossover temperatures range from the middle 60s in the western third of the forecast area to around 70 degrees in our eastern two-thirds. With early morning lows forecast to be in the middle 60s, crossover temperatures could be exceeded by 5 or more degrees in our eastern zones. As of 07Z, observations are already reporting spotty dense fog. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery also shows fog spreading in the river valleys and possibly building out of the valleys. With additional cooling to go before sunrise, it`s likely we`ll see areas of dense fog from several hours before sunrise to an hour or two after. So have issued a dense fog advisory through 9 AM to account for this. Confidence in dense fog lowers further west but will monitor for possible expansion to the west. Conditions will be close to normal Monday with a warming trend into Wednesday. By Wednesday, strong warm and moist advection will help temperatures climb into the middle 90s for most of the forecast area. Dewpoints will likely range from the upper 60s to middle 70s during the afternoon hours. This will lead to uncomfortable humidity levels, resulting in heat index values climbing as high as 105 across the area. If these trends continue, a heat advisory may be needed for most, if not all of the forecast area Wednesday. Storms may move into northern MO Wednesday evening/ Wednesday night with a possible MCS moving along a front draped from central KS into southeastern NE and southern IA. That front moves southward during the day Thursday and likely becomes the focus for renewed convection. Models show nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE Thursday afternoon, with 20 to perhaps 30 kts of deep layer shear. Forecast soundings show 1-1.5 km deep inverted-V with some mid-level dry air helping to lead to large values of downdraft CAPE. Given this environment, it looks like strong storms are possible with potential for a few severe storms. The main hazards look like strong/damaging winds. Additionally, freezing levels near 15K ft and precipitable water values over 2 inches indicate heavy rain is possible. For the remainder of the forecast, ensemble mean upper-level flow suggest very broad ridging across the southern half of the CONUS. Stronger upper-level flow, which is nearly zonal in nature, will reside across the northern tier of the CONUS. With the absence of stronger ridging, and stronger, nearly zonal flow, just north of the area, it looks like there will be a small chance for precipitation nearly every day Friday through Monday. The best chances will be across the northern portions of the forecast area, closer to the stronger flow and storm track, with decreasing chances further south. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Currently VFR at all terminals under clear skies with light and variable winds. Guidance has trended much more bullish on fog development by early Monday morning, so now have the KC metro terminals with 2SM and BR from 9z to 14z. At STJ, have 1SM and BR from 8z to 14z, with a TEMPO group for 1/2SM FG and VV002 from 9z to 12z Monday. It is possible that some, if not all, terminals could see VIS fall to 1SM or less during this time period, and amendments will be issued as necessary. Fog should mix out by around 14z Monday, returning terminals to VFR. Light winds (6 knots or less) should continue through the period, with winds becoming easterly or southeasterly by mid to late Monday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ005>008- 014>017-022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Williams