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000
FXUS63 KEAX 101702
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Today - Tuesday: nice to finally be able to talk about warm weather
for a change. A nearly zonal flow pattern aloft combined with a
pronounced west to southwest boundary layer winds should yield our
warmest day of this winter season. The resulting downslope component
in the boundary layer winds will allow 925mb temperatures of 16C-18C
to overspread the CWA today. Sunday max temperatures within this
temperature range were in the lower to mid 70s and believe we`ll see
similar readings today, even with the high clouds present.

The southern half of the CWA should be able to eke out one more day
of 70 degree weather before a cold front drops south through the CWA
in the afternoon. North of the front temperatures will be 15-20
degrees colder. A shortwave currently moving into the Pacific
Northwest will track east through the Central Rockies on Tuesday. A
developing southerly low level jet will pull modest amounts of low
level moisture northward into central MO. Inspection of NAM BUFR
soundings shows some narrow CAPE of several hundred J/kg by
afternoon within the warm sector. This may be sufficient to support
a few convective cells so feel justified in mentioning slight chance
of thunder within the warm sector on Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday Night: May have a brief bout of winter weather during the
night as a second shortwave over central Canada dives southward
through the Upper Mississippi River Valley and enhances lift within
a post-frontal baroclinic band. Boundary layer temperatures will
remain well above the freezing mark for the first half of the night
for all rain. However, the thermal profile shows the pronounced
low-level warm nose will likely be eradicated during the night
allowing for a gradual phase transition to a rain/snow mix and
eventually all snow. Hard to say if ground temperatures will be cold
enough to allow for much snow accumulation. Best bet for measurable
snowfall favors the northeastern counties.

Wednesday - Friday: Modified northwest flow with a weak shortwave
passing just north of the CWA. Moderate cold air advection will be
somewhat offset by plenty of sunshine on Wednesday. However, below
average temperatures are a near certainty. Fortunately this will be
short-lived as southerly flow returns by Thursday with above average
temperatures both Thursday and Friday. The above noted shortwave
passing north of the CWA on Friday will be accompanied by a weak cold
front which will pass through the CWA. Airmass looks rather dry so
will leave PoPs for now.

Saturday - Sunday: This will be the period most likely to contain
the next potentially significant precipitation event. GFS and ECMWF
show a rather robust positively tilted upper trough diving southeast
through the Rockies on Saturday. Both models try to close off the
bottom of the upper trough into a closed low. However, much
uncertainty exists on whether or not this will occur and if so how
far south does it finally happen. There remains a pretty decent
spread on where precipitation is generated so for now will use the
blended model approach which favors 30-40% PoPs and a return to
below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Outside of wind
shift expected early this evening, any other notable wind
speed/direction changes and precipitation chances will occur after
18Z Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ043>045-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair