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000
FXUS63 KEAX 251703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Early this morning the radar is active north of the area with a two
complexes of thunderstorms evident. The first is moving from
southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and is decaying
however, this may bring some light showers or an isolated
thunderstorm into extreme northwestern Missouri early this morning.
A second complex is moving through central Iowa and is moving
southeastward. This complex has held together overnight and it may
clip the northeastern CWA bring thunderstorms during the morning
hours.

By late morning, showers will exit the region and we will watch the
heat build across the area. Cooler temperatures will be across the
northeastern CWA where morning showers and clouds will hold on
longer with warmer temperatures across the western CWA. 850mb
temperature this afternoon will range from 22C-26C...this will yield
high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the
eastern CWA and highs in the mow to mid 90s across the western CWA.
Factor in dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat indices
will range from 102 to 107 across the western CWA. AS such a heat
advisory has been issued through 7PM this evening.

Tonight, a cold front will approach the area and stall from southern
Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas. A
shortwave is expected to move across Iowa and into northeastern
Missouri. This will bring the chance for thunderstorms across the
northeastern CWA after midnight tonight.

Saturday, the area remains in the warm sector where 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 22C-26C allowing for highs in the
low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will again be in the lower 70s yielding
heat indices from 100 to 105. Any storm develop should be suppressed
by a cap in place during the day. Saturday night, a strong upper
level trough will dig from the southern Canadian Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This will force the cold front through the area.
Forcing along this front Saturday night continue to look weak as the
better upper level support remains north of the CWA. However, if
storms can initiate there is the potential for storms to become
severe as conditions will be quite unstable with 2500-3500J/kg of
CAPE available.

By Sunday morning the cold front will have shifted south of the area
while the upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will be much more manageable with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. A secondary cold front will shift through the area
early on Monday with much cooler July air in behind it with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday the aforementioned
upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley leaving the area under
cooler northwest flow aloft and temperatures remain cool with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday will provide the next chance
for precipitation beyond Saturday night as models are advertising a
upper shortwave moving into the area in northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period across northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Winds will become less gusty
overnight but remain mixed with speeds still around 12 kts. Winds
should become gusty again tomorrow but not quite as strong as today.
There is a small chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
However, there is a strong cap in place so thinking there is a much
better chance we`ll remain dry. Have left out any mention from the
forecast as probabilities are too low to even carry a VCTS group at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB