Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 012242
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
342 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TRINITY ALPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
INTERIOR CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE COAST SHOULD
ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)...A QUIET DAY IN TERMS OF
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AS OF 22Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS HAD PULLED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE REDWOOD AND
MENDOCINO COASTS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVER SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED SMOKE IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS RETURNS TO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. HAVE LEFT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY ATTM...WITH THE 1000 TO 500 MB RH
THE HIGHEST...AND THE EVER PRESENT MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN THE OTHER DAYS.

STRATUS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND
CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE 90S TO LOWER 100S
F...WITH 60S TO NEAR 70 F ALONG THE COAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...MODELS REMAIN NON-COMMITTAL IN THE LONG
TERM...JUMPING AROUND FROM CUT OFF LOW TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE REGION IN THE EXTENDED. THUS LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR
GHOST POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON A SOLUTION SOON TO HELP
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE
PROMOTES COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT THE COASTAL
SITES THIS MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS FOUND UP AND DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF THE US. AS OF 21Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
STRATUS HAD PULLED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL SITES...BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PUSH UP THE COASTAL
RIVER VALLEYS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXCEPT FOR
REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE NEAR THE LODGE COMPLEX IN NORTHWEST
MENDOCINO COUNTY AND IN THE UPPER TRINITY RIVER VALLEY VC K086 WHERE
SMOKE FROM THE COFFEE FIRE COULD CAUSE REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. STP

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST
WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLIES OVER THE WATERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER WATERS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH PUSHES
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST. SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 11 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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