Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
FXUS66 KEKA 241207
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
507 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to interior northwest California today. High
pressure will bring a warming and drying trend across the
interior Wednesday through Friday.
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...A melange of low and high
cloudiness cover much of the area this morning. A broad trough of
low pressure continues from S Canada to central California. Water
vapor imagery depicts 2 main upper circulations within the trough:
one S of the Bay Area, the other near 38N/129W. The presence of
the 2 circulations, along with the fact that the trough will be
gradually filling, makes the forecast a bit of a challenge today.
However, there should be enough moisture and instability to couple
with weak upward forcing to produce another round of scattered to
locally numerous showers over the interior along with a few
thunderstorms. Storm motion will be nearly stationary once again
today, although both the GFS and NAM are hinting at a slow E to W
drift over the N 1/2 of the area later today. The slow
shower/storm motion will lead to the possibility of a few locally
heavy rainfall amounts over the mountains. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be over N Trinity county and over the Yolla
Bollys. Little, if any, rain is expected along the coast, but low
clouds will linger.
The upper trough will continue to be pinched and slowly fill as it
shifts S on Wednesday. This will allow a decrease in instability
and moisture as an upper ridge edges closer to the Pacific coast.
There will be a chance for showers from the Trinity horn to the
Yolla Bollys during the afternoon and evening, but the chance for
thunder will be decreasing. Low clouds will persist over the
Redwood Coast, with peaks of sun during the afternoon possible.
Patchy valley fog will be possible each night and early morning.
Continued drying is expected into Thursday with skies becoming
partly cloudy to mostly sunny across most of the area and little
chance of additional rain. Temperatures will warm to near normal
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Tuesday)...Mostly dry and
seasonable weather is expected to persist into early next week as
a high pressure ridge remains over the E Pacific and generally
weak disturbances impact the Pacific NW. /SEC
.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions and light winds to calm
conditions will continue at KCEC, KACV and KUKI through this
morning. The lower conditions will be due to reduced ceilings
and/or visibilities. Light to moderate winds will prevail at KCEC,
KACV and KUKI this afternoon and early evening. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCEC, KACV and KUKI late this morning through the
.MARINE...Light to moderate winds and low seas will continue
across the waters through tonight as a weak pressure gradient
persists across the area. An offshore high pressure ridge will
strengthen the next few days and a weak cold front will move
through the region early Thursday morning. These systems will
gradually increase the winds and seas across the waters tonight
and Wednesday. Winds and seas will increase further Thursday as
the high pressure ridge strengthens in the wake of the cold front.
Small craft advisories are likely across the outer waters
Wednesday night through this weekend due to increasing winds and
short period seas. Small craft advisories are likely across the
northern near shore waters Friday through this weekend due to
increasing winds and across the southern near shore Thursday
through this weekend due to increasing winds and seas.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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