Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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157
FXUS66 KEKA 061215 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW AREAS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG PARTS
OF THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAKING FOR A MOSTLY VFR
DAY. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP COASTAL AIRFIELDS VFR TONIGHT. INTERIOR VALLEYS,
HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE GOOD TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM THIS MORNING AS THE DIMINISHING WESTERLY SWELL ALLOWS THE SEA
STATE TO FALL BELOW 10 FT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A
NEW WESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
THE SEA STATE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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