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000
FXUS66 KEKA 192235
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
312 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER RAIN PRODUCING TROUGH RETURNS TO NORTHWEST CA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXITING TROUGH STILL PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO ALLOW ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW STILL CONTAINS ENOUGH
ENERGY TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND A STRAY SHOWER TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND COASTAL RANGE. BUT BY FRIDAY
RAPID RIDGING ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OREGON, ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW
MAY KEEP COASTAL CLOUDS OUT OF DEL NORTE COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE
MENDOCINO COAST, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE HUMBOLDT COAST CAN CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EACH MORNING.

BY SUNDAY, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD BRING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE
UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA/OR COAST. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN DEEP, MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER FOR NW CALIFORNIA...BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE GROWING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING WET WEATHER
AS GFS AND EURO COME INTO AGREEMENT. HAVE UPPED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS DROPPED TEMPERATURES DUE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
MODERATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
INCREASE LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KCEC AND KACV THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSEQUENTLY NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
ON THURSDAY. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS
AND/OR INCREASE IN THE  WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
SHORT PERIOD SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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