Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222234
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
334 PM PDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry inland weather will continue through
Tuesday then will gradually fall back to normal values late in
the work week. Coastal areas will remain more seasonal with
morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. There will be a slight
chance for afternoon thunderstorms across the mountainous interior
through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hot temperatures have returned to northwest
California as a fairly strong ridge axis slides across the
region. This afternoon is looking like the hottest day this week
with temperatures across the interior already reaching the mid
90s. Coastal areas are seeing a very nice day but just not as
warm as previously forecasted from a few days ago. Tuesday should
see a very similar day as Monday but inland temperatures will be
cooler by a few degrees as the ridge begins to break down. Coastal
clouds are expected again tonight but expect a very nice day with
mostly sunny conditions once again for Tuesday afternoon. On
Tuesday a weak cutoff low will undercut the ridge and slowly drift
towards the western United States. This will draw modest
southeast midlevel flow and increasing moisture to the interior
mountains resulting in a few showers or thunderstorms for Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons. Looking into the second half of the
week, 500mb heights will fall as an upper low from the northwest
breaks down the ridge of high pressure. This will allow
temperatures to gradually fall to near normal values for this time
of year starting Wednesday through the end of the work week.
Afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be be a possibility as
the cutoff low eventually becomes absorbed into the upper flow.
High pressure will build over the weekend as the upper trough
tracks over the central United States. This will cause inland
temperatures to increase once again over the weekend. kml/jt

&&

.AVIATION...Looks like we are in the summer pattern of overnight
marine stratus and then daytime clearing for the Redwood Coast.
Overnight, marine stratus came in and lowered the conditions down to
LIFR for Arcata and McKinleyville. However, the extent of marine
stratus was not as great as the day before. Since this morning, the
back edge of the marine stratus was south of Crescent City. The
marine stratus was just offshore from Arcata airport. Think that
tonight will be nearly the repeat of last night, with marine stratus
moving back into Crescent City and Arcata airports potentially
dropping conditions down to LIFR. By tomorrow morning, we will have
clearing skies from north to south, where Crescent City will break
out before Arcata airport. Elsewhere, Ukiah should stay VFR through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...Changes to the previous forecast package were very minor.
Light to moderate north winds with fairly gentle seas. However, the
lull won`t last long. The north winds will increase starting
tomorrow as northelry pressure gradient tightens over the area.
Winds in the northern outside waters will likely reach gale
conditions by Wednesday morning. Seas will also build and become
fairly steep with the stronger north winds. Thus, have a small craft
advisory in effect for the outside waters for tonight, then
spreading into the inside waters by tomorrow night. Think that gale
conditions is likely for the northern outside waters by Wednesday.
Thus, issue a gale watch for the northern outside water. For the
southern outside waters, the potential for gale position is a little
bit more marginal.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ450-455.

     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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