Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261834
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HOURLY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEPER WARMING TREND THAN FORECAST
AND WITH 70S ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ALONG I35 CORRIDOR...WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED THE MAX T GRID. RUC MODEL SEEMED TO DECENTLY
DEPICT MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH THAT
FOR THE MOST PART. CONTINUING TO CLOSELY MONITOR WINDS ON THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS DEWS IN THE TEENS ARE BEING SEEN THERE
RESULTING IN VERY LOW RH VALUES.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE W/SW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 20
KT FOR KAUS WITH KSAT/KSSF SLIGHTLY LESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT PIVOT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 16Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FROM 5-15MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS RH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OUT THERE.
HOURLY T GRIDS WERE A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO COMPENSATE. MAY NEED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE
DEGREES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  65  44  71  55 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  66  44  71  53 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  62  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  66  44  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  63  43  70  54 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  66  42  72  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  65  43  71  53 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   41  65  45  71  56 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  66  47  72  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           42  67  46  73  53 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





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