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000
FXUS64 KEWX 111401
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
AJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH WARMER FOR THIS AFTENOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM LIFR OUT WEST TO IFR ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN
TO THE N AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT EARLIER AT DRT DUE TO ITS TYPICAL PREFRONTAL SFC TROF. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT AUS BECAUSE OF THE N TRAJECTORY AND THE FUNNELING EFFECT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HILL COUNTRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY WITH MORNING FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS STARTING
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. BELOW THIS FEATURE THERE
IS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVELS ARE WARMER AND
MOISTER THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS A DRYLINE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL. THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THIS WILL BRINGING DRIER...WARMER AIR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE DRY AIR WILL PRECEDE THE
FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL USHER
IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS WE GIVE BACK THE 15 TO
20 DEGREES WE GAINED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME A WEAK RIDGE WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
BEGIN A WARMING PATTERN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS FORECAST WILL EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW SOME RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS WINDS
REACH CRITICAL LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  46  66  39  68 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  43  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  45  64  36  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  41  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  49  68  42  68 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  41  63  34  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  46  69  37  68 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  44  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  48  64  36  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  49  68  40  68 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  49  68  39  67 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...
KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12