Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 020836
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...EAST
OF I-35. CONVECTION INITIATION HAS BEEN ALONG 925-850MB BOUNDARY
AND BEEN ENHANCED BY STEEPER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. FARTHER WEST
AND NORTHWEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WAS GENERATING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
WINTER GARDEN AREA CLOSER TO 850MB FRONT. TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND
HRRR SUGGEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR FROM 09Z-15Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...
SO CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
PRODUCING HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT MOVES
EAST AND 850MB BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH.

MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH WIND. HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL...ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S
ELSEWHERE. CLEARING TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING
NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

BY LATE FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP FARTHER EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE DAMPENS AND PULLS AWAY AND THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST ADVANCES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  54  76  54  82 /  50  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  52  75  51  81 /  50  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  53  77  51  82 /  50  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  50  74  52  81 /  40  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  55  81  57  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  51  74  52  80 /  40  10   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  53  79  51  84 /  50  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  53  76  52  81 /  50  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  55  75  52  80 /  40  10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  54  77  53  83 /  50  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  56  79  54  83 /  50  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN


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