Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 191803 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE OBSERVED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING. THE BREAKS WILL BRING
SOME TEMPORARY VFR SKIES TO THE REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SUSPECT MVFR CIGS WILL FILL IN BY MID-
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VFR CONTINUING OUT WEST
AT KDRT. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR...BUT
LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLOUD BASES CONTINUE
TO LOWER INTO IFR AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIFR CIGS AT KSAT AFTER 10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BEGINNING MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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