Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 051825 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED A FEW DEGREES AS SUNSHINE IS
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH NOON BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF -RA MAINLY EAST OF A KCOT TO KHDO TO KERV LINE...WITH
-FZRAPL NORTH OF A KHDO TO KSAT TO K3T5 LINE...WILL MOVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY 18Z. HAVE TEMPOS FOR -FZRAPL AT KAUS AND FOR -RA AT
KSAT/KSSF UNTIL 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z...LEAVING VFR SKIES WITH FEW MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NLY
WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING AND THEN 5
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EXCEPT WINDS WILL TURN TO ELY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
THROUGH OUR CWA AND STRETCHED FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO LAREDO AND UP
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. STRONG NORTH WINDS WERE
BRINGING COLDER...DRIER AIR. PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
LESS THAN ANTICIPATED AND GENERALLY PRECEEDED THE COLD AIR. WINTER
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED. ONGOING PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END BY NOON. WILL DOWN GRADE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND CANCEL WINTER PRODUCTS
WEST OF KERR TO MEDINA COUNTIES. WILL ALSO SHORTEN THE ADVISORY TO
9 AM. BEYOND THIS MORNING...A SPLIT WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TONIGHT. FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CHILLY AND BREEZY AS THE NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE. COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
AND THEN THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR
CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  28  51  34  53 /  10  -   -    0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  26  50  33  53 /  10  -   -    0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  28  50  36  55 /  10  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            39  25  48  31  52 /  10  -    0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  30  50  38  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        40  25  49  31  53 /  10  -    0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  27  52  38  57 /  10  -   -    0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  27  51  34  53 /  10  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  28  50  36  54 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  29  51  37  55 /  10  -   -    0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  29  51  39  56 /  10  -   -    0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



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