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000
FXUS64 KEWX 282351
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will continue most of this evening and overnight as
winds at the I-35 sites gradually veer from more E-SE at 5-10 knots
to more S-SE. Shower activity will remain southeast of the TAF sites
as drier air and weak subsidence continues on the northwest side of
the upper level disturbance off the Gulf coast. The potential for low
clouds to develop tonight will be partially dependent on the return
of S-SE flow with greater low-level moisture. The model consensus is
trending towards a more gradual veering and a brief period of low
MVFR ceilings for the I-35 sites, so we have narrowed the window from
the previous forecast to 11-15Z. Patchy fog will also be possible
due to somewhat saturated soils similar to last night. DRT will
remain VFR through the period with SE 10-15 knot winds.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
A much quieter forecast is expected for the short term period
compared to the last several days. With the upper level ridge axis
shifting east and over the area as well as a low to mid level low
pressure area over the coast of Texas, lifting and moisture are
lacking for much convection this afternoon. Some stray isolated cells
from near the coast may drift northwest into the southeast zones late
this afternoon but occasional cloud to ground lightning and briefly
heavy rain are the only concerns, if anything reaches that area.

Similar set up again tomorrow with very isolated chances for
showers/storms in the southeast zones. The upper ridge continues to
plant itself over the region with temperatures warming into the mid
90s and heat indices creeping into the triple digits.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Heat indices look to peak Friday with many locations coming very
close to heat advisory criteria, basically everywhere not on the
Edwards Plateau. Not much change is expected in the synoptic pattern
over the weekend and into early next week. By the Fourth of July,
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor
southwest to the Rio Grande.

The upper ridge will weaken slightly mid week next week, perhaps
enough to re-introduce isolated PoP chances in the southeast, but
models currently keep chances less than 20%. Thus for the next 7
days, the focus for potential weather hazards will be primarily heat.
With many folks likely to be exposing themselves to extended periods
in the heat over the weekend and through the holiday, extra
precautions should be taken for staying hydrated, protection from the
sun (shade, protective clothing, and not over-exerting).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  94  77  95  77 /  -   -    0  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  94  77  95  77 /  -   -    0  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  94  76  95  76 /   0  -    0  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            72  93  75  94  75 /   0  -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           73 100  77 100  78 /   0  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  94  76  95  76 /   0  -    0  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             72  97  76  98  76 /   0  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  93  77  94  77 /   0  -    0  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  92  78  93  78 /  -   20  20  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  96  77  96  77 /   0  -    0  10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           74  96  77  96  77 /   0  -    0  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...33