362
FXUS64 KEWX 151756
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

We have extended the Flood Watch for the Southern Edwards Plateau
and Hill Country until 9 pm. An upper level disturbance over Central
Texas combined with abundant moisture are likely to bring another
chance for heavy rain across parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau
and Hill Country. Rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could lead to
flooding over areas affected by earlier heavy rain. Additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches is
possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

As of about midnight Tuesday, scattered showers and storms
associated with an MCV near the Mexican border were beginning to
spread northward across the Rio Grande Plains and into the southern
Edwards Plateau. This activity is tapping into an overlapping
nocturnal intensification of the 850mb low level jet, which is
enhancing convergence within a plume of moist air with precipitable
water values nearing and exceeding 2 inches, corresponding to values
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Additional showers
and storms are expected over the course of the early morning hours,
with some of the high-resolution models showing a gradual spread of
the rain envelope into the western Hill Country. Boundaries left
behind by storms earlier in the evening may also concentrate
additional downpours along north-to-south lines. The modeled
atmospheric conditions indicate an environment continuing to favor
efficient rainfall, leading to high rain rates which could locally
reach 2 inches per hour at times. The 00Z HREF LPMM indicated the
highest rain totals through this morning could approach 6 inches in
localized spots as showers continue to stream northward.

Much of Tuesday morning`s rains will be falling atop sensitive soils
already moistened heavily by Monday morning`s rains, leading to an
increased potential for runoff which could trigger flash flooding.
Given these factors, it is prudent to be weather aware and have
multiple methods of receiving weather warnings.

Southwesterly deep-layer flow should cause the overall area of heavy
rain showers and storms to gradually continue northeast during the
morning along with the MCV. Evolution of the MCV itself is
uncertain, though most models move its associated vorticity
northward. There should be a general decrease in the intensity and
coverage of rain late-morning and afternoon as the low-level jet
weakens. However, rains may continue to be enhanced near the MCV as
it drifts out of our area and draws in more unstable air. Most of
the high-resolution guidance has the MCV out of the CWA by Tuesday
evening with a subsequent decrease in rain chances over the area,
though there could be some reinvigoration of isolated showers with
daytime heating over South-Central Texas towards the late afternoon
and early evening.

As we head into Tuesday night into Wednesday, the growth of
subtropical ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley is
forecast to nudge the corridor of moist air and convergence farther
to the west, displacing it away from the Gulf and leading to a
reduction in moisture and rain chances. Wednesday looks dry for
most, though ridging appears relatively weak and could allow for an
isolated shower or storm accompanying onshore flow/seabreeze over
the Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Continued extension of the mid- to upper-level Gulf coast ridge into
our area should generally support an increase in daytime
temperatures during the mid to late week with mostly dry conditions.
While medium-range ensembles show a summertime ridge pattern
developing over the course of the week, we are monitoring a tropical
disturbance currently offshore the eastern coast of Florida. As the
ridge builds, this disturbance could track west along or parallel to
the northern US Gulf coast during the latter part of the week. Most
of the model guidance does not bring this feature as far west as our
area, though it will be worth keeping an eye on. Aside from this
disturbance, which could stick around into the weekend, there is
good consensus from ensemble guidance that the broader ridging
pattern holds through the weekend and into Monday with near average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Much better flying conditions compared to 24 hours ago. We continue
to see the remnants of an MCV from earlier this morning move away
from the TAF sites. There is still the isolated chance of -SHRAs and
-TSRAs this afternoon and possibly this evening mainly for KDRT and
perhaps KSAT/KSSF. Have left mention out of this TAF forecast due to
low confidence for now. VFR conditions should prevail until 12Z at
KDRT and until the overnight when MVFR conditions return for I-35 TAF
sites. VFR conditions should then resume by early afternoon at all
TAF sites. A southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots is expected at all
TAF sites throughout the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  71  93 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  96  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  71  94 /  20   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  74  95 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  73  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-
Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-Uvalde.

&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM