Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 011722
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1122 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon with some altocu and cirrus passing through the skies.
Nly winds 10 to 20 KTs with gusts to 27 KTs will decouple 5 to 10
KTs or less tonight and then turn to NE and E at 6 to 12 KTs on
Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

MORNING UPDATE...
Hourly temperature trends were considerably out of whack in the last
hour as rapid warming is occurring despite the northerly winds.
Already seeing 70+ degrees in San Antonio up to Austin and east.
Opted to populate with the warmer euro MOS as it seems to be
the only guidance capturing the trends. This raised the entire CWA
2-3 degrees from the previous forecast highs. This also lowers Min RH
values bringing the critical values farther east into the San Antonio
area and all areas west. Will be monitoring closely for potential
need for a RFW due to these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

AVIATION...
A pre-frontal wind shift has cleared out much our the ceiling and
visibility restrictions this morning. The actual front will be pushing
through by the mid-morning hours with breezy north winds expected
for the remainder of the day behind the front. Otherwise VFR will
prevail with no major impacts undissipated.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the western half
of the country with flow over Texas from the south-southwest. At the
surface, a dryline and cold front were entering our northwestern
area. Ahead of the front winds were light and variable across our
CWA. The cold front will be about half way through our area at the
start of this period and continue through today. Moisture will be
confined to the very lowest part of the boundary layer and the front
will be dry. Drier air will move in behind the front on breezy north
to northeast winds. Surface high pressure will move across North
Texas and winds across our CWA will swing around to the east tonight.
Temperatures will be cooler today and even cooler Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
A low amplitude upper ridge will move across the southern plains
Thursday night and Friday. Dry weather will continue with near normal
temperatures. Saturday an upper level trough will move into western
Mexico and send a short wave trough into Texas. This will bring a
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Monday night a cold front will drop down through North Texas and then
through our CWA Tuesday. This front will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms with the best chances across the south and east.

FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air behind the cold front today will send relative humidity
down below 30 percent over almost all of South Central Texas and
below 20 percent over the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. Winds
will be between 10 and 15 mph. This will lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions mainly along and west of Hwy 281.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  45  66  42  68 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  42  67  40  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  44  67  42  68 /  10   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            70  39  63  39  65 /  -    0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  46  69  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  40  65  39  67 /  -    0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             82  43  68  42  68 /  -    0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  43  67  41  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  43  66  41  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  45  67  43  68 /  -    0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           81  47  67  45  68 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...TB3



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