Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 170005
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS AND
SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS COULD DELAY MANY AREAS FROM
SEEING THE LOW CLOUD LAYER UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLIES WILL DECREASE TURN MORE FROM THE ESE TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING THE CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR OR LOWER
CATEGORIES. WHILE ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS...
EXPECT THE WESTERLY OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALOFT TO ENHANCE BUOYANCY
AND KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE UPDATE FOR LATER TONIGHT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
AN IFR CEILING DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK OUT WEST TO DRT AND AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THAT COULD FURTHER REDUCE
CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIR
ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF TEXAS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
WIND SHIFT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TRANSITION TO
A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BRIEFLY SHIFT
OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND THE MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACROSS
TEXAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN EXPECTED. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WE SEE NO REASON TO ALTER AT THIS TIME.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...WE DID EXTEND THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
WE/LL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA (VAL VERDE COUNTY) DUE TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
REGION THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              54  74  58  79  59 /  -   20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  51  74  57  79  57 /  -   20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  58  81  57 /  -   10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  72  57  78  57 /  -   20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  83  62  82  64 /  -   -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        52  72  57  78  58 /  -   20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             56  81  61  84  62 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  74  57  80  57 /  -   10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   55  75  58  80  58 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  78  60  82  60 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  80  61  83  61 /  -   10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






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