Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 231115
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
615 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS E OF KCOT TO KUVA TO KAQO LINE
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING LEAVING VFR SKIES WITH FEW VFR LEVEL
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE MORNING THRU EVENING. AREAS OF STRATUS
WITH MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY E OF KCOT TO KUVA
TO KAQO LINE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH VFR
SKIES BY MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE
MORNING THRU EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THE HEAT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100. THAT IS NOT THE CASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WE
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM FLORESVILLE TO GONZALES TO LA GRANGE. HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ENJOYING THE LAST WEEKEND BEFORE SCHOOL STARTS
ON MONDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVING
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LESS OF A
GRIP ON OUR TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THEY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER COMES MID WEEK. FIRST MODELS SHOW A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THESE TWO DAYS. MID RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND STALL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER FRONTS WE
HAVE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS SUMMER. MOST OF OUR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH/FRONT WILL COME FROM REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BEST LIFT LOOK
TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHING OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IT WILL DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES
CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  75 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  75 100  74 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  97  75  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  80  99  78  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  98  76  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  98  73  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  74  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  100  78 100  77 101 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  99  77  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77 100  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12





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