Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 160438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER AND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS LOWERED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTED ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.