Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
607 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 607 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The deformation zone forcing is quickly weakening and have allowed
much of the winter weather advisory to expire. An additional half
inch to inch of snow will be possible across the Bemidji, Detroit
Lakes, Fosston area and will keep the advisory going here. Will
watch trends and cancel early if current trends continue.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

700mb low near Fargo will propagate northeast through the morning
hours. Radar/Satellite imagery indicating a deformation zone
snowband has set up in this area with enhanced snowfall rates.
Mesoscale forcing parameters are all weak and do not anticipate
organized banding. As such, the winter weather advisory looks on
track with most areas receiving 3-5 inches. Main impact looks to
be snow covered roads. High pressure builds into the region this
afternoon along with clearing sky. Main challenge for tonight will
be min temps, but wind chills will warmer than wind chill advisory

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Saturday-Sunday...Upper level trough over southern CA will move
out into the Central Plains on Sat. System will move into western
Great Lake states by Sun morning. System becomes negatively tilted
with better than 200 meter height falls. Surface low expected to
deepen rapidly Sat night but system will remain quite far south
and east of the area. However expect winds to increase mainly over
the eastern zones for Sat night into Sun. Also snow will fall
over the southeast two thirds of the area Sat afternoon and Sat
night. The most snow is forecast again over the far southeast

Next system is currently located over the gulf of AK. System will
move across the area Mon. System may produce very light snow in the
far northern zones Sun night.

Monday-Thursday...Longwave trough remains over the western US.
Longwave ridge over the southeast US retrogrades a bit through the
period. Long wave trough over northern Canada shifts to the other
hemisphere. Upper air pattern relaxes a bit through the period.

Split flow develops over North America as another trough re-
establishes over the Desert Southwest and waves keep moving across
the Northern Plains. Relatively zonal flow much of the period and
trending toward southwest flow aloft at the end of the period.
Another trough moves through the area Tue with little snow expected.

High temperatures were increased zero to three degrees for Mon, Tue
and Wed. Little change to Thu from yesterdays run.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

MVFR cigs/vsby and light snow moving to the east. Anticipate most
areas will be VFR very soon, or by mid-late morning. Watching an
area of MVFR cigs across northwest North Dakota moving to the
southeast, likely to affect Devils Lake this afternoon.


MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ002-



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