Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 AM MST Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A significant decrease in storm coverage will continue
Thursday and Friday. A return to more active monsoon conditions is
expected this weekend and into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Some mid and high level clouds are streaming
northward across northern Arizona this morning. Otherwise, the
weather is quiet. Thursday is expected to be another below normal
monsoon day in terms of convective activity. However, we are
expecting a bit more shower and thunderstorm development than
yesterday. Storms will develop first across the higher terrain
with the steering flow generally taking storms to the north and
east. The area with the best chance to see showers and storms
today will be in the eastern portion of the area including the
White Mountains. Similar conditions are anticipated on Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms, favored over the eastern
portion of the area.

The presence of an inverted trough to the south will turn the
flow aloft to the southeast over the weekend. This will advect in
more moisture over the region with an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. Latest model guidance suggest this
pattern may persist into early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions to prevail through
this morning. Scattered showers will develop in the afternoon and
evening starting after 18Z. Best chances are expected across the
mountains of east-central AZ, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible in
the stronger storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Typical late morning to early evening thunderstorms
are expected today and Friday, though overall coverage may be a bit
below monsoonal normals.

Saturday through Monday...Moisture is forecast to increase across
Arizona with a greater chance for showers and storms expected across
the fire district.






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