Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 292227 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
327 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Strong southwest winds will develop Thursday
afternoon and continue into the evening ahead of a storm system.
The cold front will push east across the state late Thursday night
through Friday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Snow
levels will fall to 4500 to 5500 feet behind the cold front late
Thursday night into Friday, with only light accumulations for most
areas. The chance of showers will linger over eastern Arizona
through Saturday, then improving conditions return Sunday.
.DISCUSSION...After a breezy morning, winds have started to
diminish this afternoon and temperatures have warmed to above
average levels. Winds will be light overnight with seasonable low
temperatures. On Thursday, a deep low pressure system will
approach through the day with increasing winds. Winds will peak
just ahead of the cold front, mid afternoon to early evening for
NW Arizona, around mid evening for central portions including
Flagstaff, then late evening for eastern Arizona. A High Wind
Warning was issued for NW Coconino county including Grand Canyon
where gusts near 60 mph are likely. Farther east, a Wind Advisory
was issued for most of the remainder of northern Arizona. A few
gusts could hit warning criteria Winds are likely to remain
strong over far east- central Arizona through Friday morning so
the advisory continues there until 10 AM Friday. Some showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop along the cold front Thursday
evening and overnight, with snow levels falling rapidly as the
front passes, down to 4500-5500 feet. Moisture appears limited so
only looking at light snowfall amounts for locations above 6000
ft, though there could be a couple inches or more on the Kaibab
Plateau & Black Mesa. The low is a slow mover, drifting to near
four corners Friday, then into New Mexico by Saturday. Scattered
showers are expected at times into Saturday, mainly over the
northern third of Arizona with decreasing chances farther south.
A brief break in the weather is forecast for Sunday, then another
trough will approach by Monday or Tuesday. This one looks mainly
like another wind event as it is currently forecast to track a bit
farther north, with only a slight chance of showers at this time.
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through
the next 24 hours. Winds will become light overnight into Thursday
morning, then after 16Z Thursday, stronger SW winds will develop
and continue into Thursday evening. Sustained speeds of 20 to 30
kt with gusts 35 to 45 kt are expected to develop. Some localized
blowing dust could develop during the afternoon over valley
locations, especially the Little Colorado River valley near KINW.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM MST
Thursday FOR AZZ005-008-009- 012-013-015-016-038>040.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ010-011.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 10 AM MST Friday FOR AZZ014-
High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004-006-
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