Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 270345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
845 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS... An unsettled pattern will continue through the first
half of the week, with breezy and cool conditions combined with
widespread rain and snow showers. Dry weather and a warming trend
is then forecast Wednesday through the end of the week.


A period of wet, cool, and breezy weather remains in store for
mid-day Monday through early Tuesday. Forecast for this period
looks in good shape.


.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...For tonight, a strong mid-level
inversion is forecast to set up near the San Francisco peaks.
Strong southwesterly wind gusts around 40 mph will likely develop
downwind of the peaks, primarily across Doney Park in the 2am-8am
Monday period. Trash/recycling bins could be thrashed about if not
secured properly. Winds will continue to increase across northern
Arizona Monday as a low pressure system approaches from the
Pacific. For now will hold off on a wind advisory for the Little
Colorado River valley from Winslow to Cameron Monday afternoon as
marginal wind advisory conditions are forecast (gusts to 40 mph).

The main story continues to be the copious amounts of moisture
forecast to stream over northern Arizona Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. The latest models continue to paint a wet picture for
northern Arizona. Given the warm moisture source region, snow
levels should be relatively high Monday afternoon and night,
generally ranging from 5500-7000 feet across northern Arizona.
Snow levels should begin to drop Tuesday. However, precipitation
chances will also taper off from west to east with post-frontal
scattered showers expected.

Given this set-up, went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning
for areas along the Mogollon Rim including Flagstaff, Forest
Lakes, and Alpine Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A winter
weather advisory was issued Monday afternoon through Tuesday for
the North Rim, Black Mesa, and Chuskas including Jacob Lake,
Shonto, Tsaile, and Sawmill.

Both Yavapai and Gila counties will likely see mainly liquid
precipitation through the duration of this event, with
approximately 1 to 2 inches of liquid forecast. Creek and streams
in Yavapai and Gila counties will likely be running high by
Tuesday. However, no major flooding is expected.

Precipitation chances should taper off Tuesday night. A drying and
warming trend is then forecast to commence Wednesday, and
continue through the end of this week with above normal high
temperatures expected Thursday through the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...

Through 12Z...Widespread ceilings 5000-7000 above ground level with
areas of MVFR ceilings over the high terrain. Starting around
07Z...localized wind gusts to 40 knots northeast of terrain

After 12Z...An approaching storm system will produce widespread MVFR
conditions with areas of IFR conditions across the mountains.
Surface winds southwest 15-25 knots gusting locally to near 40
knots. Rain and snow showers on the increase 18Z-00Z west of a
Prescott-Flagstaff-Grand Canyon line. Snow level around 6000 feet.
Widespread rain and snow, heavy at times, 00Z-06Z over most or
northern Arizona, producing IFR/LIFR conditions. Snow level
6000-7000 feet. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory from 5
PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ011-039.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday FOR

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR




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