Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301617
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
917 AM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY WITH OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(405 AM MST)...

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CROSSING ARIZONA. MAX
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN HALVES OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO SHOULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BRIEF
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY.
THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
FASTEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY
WARM LAYER ALOFT (ON SATURDAY) AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW
LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...THE
LATEST PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS OUT OF
ARIZONA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAX AND MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PERIODIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ/DL
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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