Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCAL
IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 16Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO
25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL



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