Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 230435
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona
through this Holiday weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm
enough Thanksgiving day and Friday to challenge long standing
high temperature records. Cooler and breezy conditions are
expected early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies and light winds prevail across northern
Arizona this evening. The 900 PM MST temperatures four degrees (or
less) warmer this evening and the forecast is on track. No
updates needed this evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 PM MST/...A ridge of high pressure will
continue to bring well above normal temperatures and calm weather
to northern Arizona through the weekend. For Thursday, high
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with a few
sites challenging long standing high temperature records.
Temperatures will remain well above normal for Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday with light winds and mostly sunny skies.

By Monday, temperatures will cool slightly out ahead of a trough
of low pressure approaching the area from the Pacific Northwest.
This system will bring a cold frontal boundary south into our area
between Monday and Tuesday bringing near or just below normal
temperatures and the return of cloud cover.

Models still remain somewhat uncertain about the timing of the
trough with some models moving the feature into our area as early
as Monday afternoon and some models holding the trough off until
later into Tuesday. Models do agree that this trough will pass
mainly to our north with no significant chances for precipitation
expected. As we wait for models to come into better agreement on
the timing of this system, we can anticipate winds increasing by
Monday and Tuesday as the approaching system increases pressure
gradients with gusts to 35-40 mph possible across the higher
terrain.

By Wednesday, the winds will decrease behind the trough with
temperatures warming slightly but still remaining around normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under
mostly clear skies and light winds. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to
bring unusually warm temperatures and dry conditions. Daytime high
temperatures will be between 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Saturday through Monday...Unusually warm temperatures continue
Saturday and Sunday. On Monday, a dry cold front may bring cooler
temperatures and strong southwest winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/ET
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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