Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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976
FXUS65 KFGZ 030336
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
836 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDING. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FLAGSTAFF SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PRODUCE DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALONG WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID EVENING RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPATED TO REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH- NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST- NORTHEAST
FLOW FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP.
SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION...BETWEEN 06Z-15Z
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TC
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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