Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 030329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
829 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...For tonight, scattered rain and snow showers to
continue across northern Arizona, and then linger over White
mountains early Saturday morning. Otherwise expect dry weather
conditions with a warming trend through the weekend. A strong
cold front may bring much colder temperatures and showers as early
as Tuesday afternoon.


.DISCUSSION...GOES Satellite water vapor imagery shows the low
center over the northern Gulf of California this evening. A few
light showers continue to develop this evening with very light
precipitation amounts. The low center will continue to move
southeastward deeper into central Mexico on Saturday before
ejecting northeastward into Texas on Monday. The southern track of
this low will keep Arizona in a weak high pressure ridge pattern
this weekend with dry weather and a warming trend.

The afternoon forecast grids look good. No evening updates.



Elsewhere clearing and drying to push in from the northwest
tonight with dry weather through Monday night. Still expecting
gusty northeast winds to develop tonight along the Mogollon Rim
and continue through Sunday morning, with the fastest speeds
(sustained 20-30 mph with higher gusts) Saturday night. Temps to
start a warming trend for the weekend, though wind chills may have
one thinking differently.

Regarding the cold front next week. The latest indications are
for a slower arrival time and the bulk of the coldest air to slide
through the 4 corners. This afternoons forecast changes for next
Tuesday were to lower Tuesdays high temps a few degrees over
Monday and confine the shower chances to areas along the Utah
border. Also bumped up Weds/Thurs temps a few degrees but not a
lot of confidence in how cold it could be next given todays model
output. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...Mostly VFR conditions across
northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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