Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will exit the area by early Tuesday with
cold temperatures and lighter winds behind it. Some warming will
occur on Wednesday before another storm system moves in Thursday
and Friday. This will bring cooling temperatures and a chance of
rain and showers. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm over
the weekend.


.UPDATE...Current radar imagery indicates a band of rain and snow
showers east of a line from Payson to Winslow to Window Rock.
These showers are associated with a cold front that is forecast to
slowly move eastward through the remainder of the evening and
overnight hours. In addition, radar and low level water vapor
imagery indicate that some showers have formed in the cold pool
behind the front. As a result, probabilities of precipitation have
been raised into the chance category for the remainder of the
evening along the Coconino and Kaibab Plateaus.

In addition, wind speeds have significantly decreased across the
majority of northern Arizona this evening. As a result, the Wind
Advisory covering areas north of the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains has been cancelled.


.PREV DISCUSSION /258 PM MST/...A strong cold front currently
stretching from northern Navajo County to southeast Coconino
County will continue to move east tonight. Strong southwesterly
winds which have routinely gusted between 50-60 mph today will
rapidly decrease behind the front. Precipitation rates will
diminish behind the front early this evening from Flagstaff
westward. Along the front expect a burst of heavier precipitation
along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains before showers
diminish early Tuesday morning. Very cold and dry air will spill
in behind the front with 700 mb temperatures falling to between
-13 to -16 C. This will lead to below normal temperatures Tuesday
with the coldest night of the week expected to be Tuesday night
when some spots could see below zero temperatures. Some slight
moderation in temperatures is expected Wednesday.

The next chance for precipitation and gusty southwest winds will
be late Thursday evening into Friday as another trough of low
pressure approaches from the northwest. Long range models differ
slightly on how far south to dig the trough out. As a result,
have settled for a middle of the road approach still keeping a
slight chance for rain and mountain snow in for Friday with the
highest chances along and south of the Mogollon Rim and along the
Kaibab Plateau. Chances will decrease into Saturday morning
before a return to a calmer weather pattern and warm up in
temperatures for the rest of the weekend and into early next


.AVIATION...For the 06z package...A cold frontal boundary continues
to move across eastern Arizona producing steady snow for areas
along/east of a KPAN-KRQE line. Areas of MVFR and local
IFR conditions through around 12Z in these areas. Elsewhere through
12Z, there will be isolated snow showers with localized MVFR and
brief IFR conditions possible, mainly from KFLG northward. Clearing
conditions area-wide Tuesday morning with generally west winds 10-
15kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Rain and mountain snow showers will continue through
this evening before tapering off from west to east. The most snow
accumulation is forecast along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Dry and much colder weather will follow for Tuesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Below normal temperatures and an
unsettled weather pattern will remain over Arizona with a chance for
additional precipitation returning on Thursday and Friday. By
Saturday, a return a drier pattern and warming trend for the weekend
and early next week.



Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for AZZ016-017.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ004-




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