Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 050406
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
906 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. ..WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS STRONGER CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS WEAKENED...AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES AND MOVING EASTWARD. WILL FINE-TUNE PRECIP AND
CLOUD FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /401 PM MST/... WE HAVE SEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AROUND HEBER-OVERGAARD...SHOW LOW...AND
SNOWFLAKE...WITH STEADILY DECREASING COVERAGE TO THE WEST AND
NORTH. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EARLIER RATHER THAN
LATER..ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...WITH STORMS PERHAPS LIMITED TO EASTERN ARIZONA FROM
ABOUT MID-WEEK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A KPGA-KINW. THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL FAVOR CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. EXPECT CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS RESULTING IN A MARKED DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/AT
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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