Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
907 AM MST Wed Oct 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions under high pressure are
expected through at least Thursday. In fact, temperatures by
Thursday will range from 10 to almost 15 degrees above normal. A
slight chance of showers will return by Friday and into next


Northern Arizona will experience warm and mostly clear weather
today. Significant short-term forecast updates seem unnecessary
at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /319 AM MST/... Warm and dry conditions will
continue across the area as a large scale ridge builds over the
four corners area through Thursday. Expected temperatures to climb
well above seasonal averages for this time of year over the next
few days. The ridge will slowly move eastward with its axis
expected to be over the panhandle of Texas around midday Friday.
This will allow for shortwave energy to impact the Arizona late
Friday and Saturday. Most of the moisture looks to briefly impact
the Kiabab Plateau before glancing north into Utah. Isolated
showers, breezy winds, and increasing clouds will likely be the
biggest impact for most of the population centers from this

Quasi-zonal flow reestablishes itself behind the shortwave trough,
with some breezy conditions possible early next week as another
round of energy moves over central Utah and the pressure gradient
tightens in response. The bulk of the stronger winds should remain
north of the Utah-Arizona line, but there is a chance for some
gusty winds late Sunday and early Monday if the system moves
slightly farther south. There is some potential for week
instability towards the middle of the week but confidence is
rather low at this point due to the week signal this far into the
model solution. Have kept some low chances for precip in the
forecast due to model spread, and subsequent runs should allow
for the pops to be increased or decreased accordingly.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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