Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 061725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS PORTRAYED IT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN IOWA ZONES...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EXTENDING BACK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH SHOWERS LIGHTENING UP.
DEPENDENT ON TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH BEFORE 15Z AS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND GOOD MIXING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IT WILL BE A
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE FREE OF CLOUDS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY TRAJECTORIES ALOFT
MAY BRING THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
HAZY SKY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 10C...AND WETTER
GROUND THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN CHANGE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA. PATTERN
IS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED...SO LITTLE TO QUIBBLE WITH OVER THE LOW
CHANCE POPS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE. PATTERN CHANGE
WILL ALLOW WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD BACK INTO
THE REGION...WITH 80S LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND EVEN SOME
90S POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY. TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO SHUNT SMOKE
OFF TO OUR EAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. MAY HAVE TO WATCH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AGAIN THOUGH...AS MODELS POINTING TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER FETCH OF SMOKE
OVER THE AREA AND IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3SM OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE TO 3-5SM BY 21Z
AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE GENERAL AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAF FORECASTS...PLUS EXTENDING THIS MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION
THROUGH THE COMING NIGHT. OTHERWISE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ON THEIR WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CEILINGS 1-3K FEET OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 22Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 07/00Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
07/15Z- 18Z WITH HEATING AND MIXING HELPING WITH SMOKE DISPERSION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...


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