Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 310949
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
349 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will once again favor
the higher terrain with little forcing or moisture available to
push them into the lower valleys. If any areas could be picked out
today for slightly better convective coverage it would be the
central Divide and San Juan ranges due to some weak energy
advection aloft...but confidence not really that high attm.
Tomorrow the southern mountains look slightly more favored due to
low level moisture return up the spine of the southern Divide.
Temperatures the next few days stay close to normal for late May
and early June.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Some residual moisture and energy with the exiting southern
trough will keep some convective activity over the southern San
Juans on Wednesday. By Thursday, high pressure will be
strengthening across the Desert Southwest and temperatures will
soar to near 90 in the lower valleys. Eastern Utah and most of the western
Colorado valleys look to remain dry through next weekend, but a
tap of 6+ g/kg spec humidity Gulf of Mexico moisture is forecast
to stream into the western Colorado mountains late in the weekend.
This moisture combined with above normal temperatures will likely
cause an increase in activity by Sunday and into the early
workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Shower and
thunderstorm activity coverage will be still be in the isolated to
scattered category but favored over the higher terrain. Can not
rule out some impact of gusty outflow winds or temporary ILS
conditions at KASE and KTEX but probability seems quite low.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



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