Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 250904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SUNNY DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUR ENTIRE CWA
SHOULD STILL EXPERIENCE MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...
WHICH MEANS NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

310K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH WITH ENHANCED 75KT JET
SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS ITERATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PWATS STRUGGLE TO REACH ONE HALF INCH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AT FAIRLY HIGH LEVELS. WITH 75KT JET
DIVERGENCE AVAILABLE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
VALLEYS UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WELL DEFINED NARROW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SEEN WITH THE SYSTEM
EARLIER THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF GJT BUT ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE ALONG I-70 FROM ABOUT RIFLE AND EAST. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. KEPT
CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST MONDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...IF
NOT BELOW FREEZING...IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WHICH HAVE NOT ALREADY EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL. MODELS...ESPECIALLY EC...
STILL SHOWING A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO THIS COULD BE AN IMPORTANT
FACTOR WHEN CONSIDERING ANY FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING.

GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GFS BRINGS NEXT MIGRATORY
UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WHILE EC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
CWA. EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DRY FOR OUR CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IMPLIES A FASTER RATE OF
WARMING THAN THE EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 BY 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JRP
AVIATION...JRP



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