National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KGYX 122005
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING AN
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GET STARTED
IN EARNEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL HELP GO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CENTER OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE MOVED THE CONCENSUS TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FURTHER WEST. THE EURO HAS THE CENTER PASSING
INSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40/70. QPF AMTS WILL BE .50-.80 BY ALL
MODELS WITH HIGHEST AMTS ALONG THE COAST CLOSEST TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW AND ANY COASTL FRONT THAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SNOWFALL RATIOS
CONSERVATIVELY SHOULD BE 18:1. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE NO DOUBTS OF IT BEING AN ALL SNOW EVENT.
CONFIDENCE IT FAIRLY HIGH FOR A DECENT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. THE SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR
5TH/6TH PDS SO ATTM NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. THE MID SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION WITH THE
LATEST MODEL DATA.

USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR MOST OF THE FCST AND QPF.

THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY BY SUN AFTN AND MOVES INTO MARITIMES BY
SUN NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE FA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A WAA PATTERN TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PSBL. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TUES
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE LATTER PRT OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPCECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW WILL PRODUCE A SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NGT
AND SUNDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL COME CLOSE TO GALE WARNING
CRITERIA BUT SHOULD HOLD JUST SHY AND STAY IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. THE EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF PRES
GRADIENT OF THE WINDS AND THE STRENGTH. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS WE
WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SUN AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON ANOTHER ARCTIC NWLY
FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

MARINE/POHL