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000
FXUS61 KGYX 131406 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS UPR
LOW SWINGS OVERHEAD AND CONTINUES -SN. LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE IS
FAVORABLE...AND CAA HAS EXTENDED THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OVER SEVERAL
HUNDRED MB. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNFL THIS MORNING AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE INCREASED 6 HOURLY TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES.


PREVIOUSLY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND SUPPLY THE ASCENT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND THE ICE FROM THE FLASH FREEZE OF LAST
EVENING.

FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO AUGUSTA TO
WATERVILLE TO THE MID COAST...EXPECT STRONG WINDS GUSTING 40 TO
50 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN AREAS WITHOUT A WINTER STORM
WARNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH STANDARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT...WITH GOOD
INTERIOR RADIATORS GETTING DOWN WELL BELOW ZERO.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL GET A WAA PATTERN GOING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY...AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
PUSH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES. CLOUDS AND A BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY AND SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY REACH NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ONLY SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKING QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY AND A MOSTLY SUNNY
BUT COLD DAY FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
SUNDAY AND ONLY REACHING THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH
FOR ST PATS.

MODEL AGREEMENT HEADS SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST. GFS TAKING THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES LOW PRESSURE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. WILL LIKELY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWEST CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 35
TO 45 KT EARLY ON. VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES UP FOR THIS MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-020>022-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ018-019-
     023>027.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ001>007.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO