Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 080254
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
454 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOL WEATHER HAVE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TURN OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/MODERATE TRADE
WINDS TO RETURN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50/S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT DEW
POINT AT THE HONOLULU AIRPORT IS 45 DEGREES F WITH THE AFTERNOON
LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWING A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY 0.6 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTED UPCOMING
LIGHT WINDS... NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50/S FOR SOME SEA LEVELS LOCATIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HONOLULU AIRPORT WILL
SEE ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR WITH FORECAST TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 60/S OVER THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL FEEL COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70/S FOR MOST SEA LEVEL AREAS.

WINDS REMAIN AT WARNING LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...AND
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS LINGER AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BRINGING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THOSE AREA. AIRMET SIERRA CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TONIGHT.
BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND AIRMET
TANGO CONTINUES FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS BUT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
THE CURRENT ROUGH SEAS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY. THE CURRENT NW
SWELL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL
BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEW NW SWELL.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN EASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK
SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION


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