Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270509
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1109 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH KCLL AND KUTS BY AROUND 13Z. LIKED A BIT FASTER PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT THAT EARLIER FORECASTED OVER THE REMAINING SITES AND
WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST RAP13 MODEL. THIS MEANS THE FRONT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO REACH KCXO BY 20Z...KIAH BY 21Z...AND KHOU BY 23Z. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH KLBX AND KGLS BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SEA FOG FORMING SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO
KGLS BY 14Z. IF SO...THE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER IN PLACE UNTIL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE KCXO AND KIAH SITES
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...AND THEN
BECOME BREEZY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 HOURS LATER. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT IS NOW
PAST LUBBOCK AND IS FORECASTED TO BE AT COLLEGE STATION AROUND 9
AM TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECASTED TO BE AT HOUSTON
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP THIS EVENING
RIGHT AROUND THE COAST UP INTO HARRIS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS PRECIP. NEW RAP SEEMS TO BE
CATCHING ON WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS. GENERAL THINKING IS FOR THE
PRECIP TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. NEW 0Z LCH SOUNDING HAS A PRETTY GOOD CAP AROUND 700 MB
SO EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN THUNDER FREE OVERNIGHT. GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS ERODE THE CAP A BIT AND SUPPORT THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOMORROW.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  63  42  53  38 /  50  60  40  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  72  47  53  40 /  60  70  50  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  70  50  53  48 /  50  70  70  60  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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