Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 092332
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 7 TO
10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN
TEXAS TONIGHT. SFC DEW PTS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT RH VALUES STILL BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. SHAVED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS GENERALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SE TX. 500
HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP IS ON TAP. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL AS PRESSURES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE SATURDAY
OR SAT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE. DON`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE MSTR RETURN AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXTENDING TO ONLY 850 MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. COULD STILL GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
UNDER THE CAP ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SHARPER
WITH THE S/WV TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THESE
FEATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY DRIER. MSTR LEVELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
AND WITH CAPPING EVIDENT...FEEL THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. 43

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND...WITH RED RIVER VALLEY PRESSURES LOWERING...
THE MID INTO LATE WEEK WIND PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF MORE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING GULF SCEC CONDITIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. LOWERING SOUTHERN PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND PICK SEAS BACK UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIDE LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET BELOW NORMAL. LOW TIDE IS
ONGOING SO TIDE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER REACHES OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS MIGHT BE DROPPED WITH THE MARINE UPDATE AT 930
PM.  31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERN CORRIDOR WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE TRUNCATED TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE INTERIOR LOW
TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE BY
WEEK`S CLOSE AND THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON 50
PERCENTILE RANGE GOING INTO MID FEBRUARY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  69  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  65  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.