Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 040930
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH SIERRA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A DISCONTINUOUS BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO AND THROUGH INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANCHORED BY A
LOW NEAR 36N/138W. THIS PATTERN HAS CREATED A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

THE MARINE LAYER HAD DEEPENED TO OVER 4000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD
THIS MORNING...AND MARINE AIR SPILLING THROUGH PACHECO PASS WAS
CAUSING GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR LOS BANOS. WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB WERE
GUSTING TO 30 KTS AS MARINE AIR PUSHED THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA
AND INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AT 08Z /0100 PDT/ THIS MORNING...
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
DOWN AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES FROM 08Z MONDAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW AND BEING EJECTED THROUGH THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THIS VORTICITY MAY BRING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN WINDS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY. WHILE 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ARE NOT FORECAST TO RISE THURSDAY...1000-500-MB
THICKNESSES DO INCREASE FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE FRIDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE ONLY
CHANCE...ALBEIT MEAGER...FOR PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND REACH THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER TROUGH TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE RESULTING PATTERN HAS STRONG SIMILARITIES TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED.

THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956
KFAT 08-05      110:1895     83:1957     79:1998     51:1950
KFAT 08-06      110:1902     78:1999     77:1998     54:1950

KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
KBFL 08-05      110:1998     85:1957     84:1909     52:1899
KBFL 08-06      110:1990     79:1999     85:1978     54:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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