Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
000
FXUS66 KHNX 271045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES INLAND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER TO THE REGION
BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AT 09Z /0100 PST/ THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...NEAR PERSISTENCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ALSO WERE
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE AND THIS COULD LIMIT
DURATIONS BELOW 32 DEGREES. A FEW SITES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY ALREADY HAD FALLEN BELOW 32 DEGREES...SO WILL KEEP
THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 17Z /0900 PST/ THIS MORNING.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AND INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...DEWPOINTS WERE
ONLY IN THE TEENS. LIGHT WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT WHEN THE WINDS CEASE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. THE HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE DESERT AREAS LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE EAST-PACIFIC
RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING/S LOWS AND WILL WAIT TO SEE THE ACTUAL LOWS FOR THIS MORNING
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.

IN CONTRAST TO THURSDAY EVENING/S MODEL RUNS...THE FRIDAY 00Z MODELS
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A CLOSED
LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR WINDS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST MAINLY NORTH OF
YOSEMITE...BUT SURFACE- PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND DROPS SOUTH THROUGH INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...COULD SEE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE VALLEY-
FACING SLOPES. THE GFS DROPS 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO AROUND -8 C BY 12Z /0400 PST/ WEDNESDAY...SO SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE VERY LOW AND MOST LIKELY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...IF
NOT LOWER. THE GFS DROPS THE WET-BULB ZERO LINE DOWN TO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS A BIT MORE
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...NEW YEAR/S EVE COULD BE
VERY INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST THRU 18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY DECEMBER 27 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND
MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-27       72:1991     37:1908     55:1977     23:1962
KFAT 12-28       66:1945     35:1908     54:1977     24:1962
KFAT 12-29       69:1949     36:1908     54:1977     24:1990

KBFL 12-27       72:1991     39:1933     56:1977     23:1930
KBFL 12-28       73:1977     40:1908     58:1977     24:1930
KBFL 12-29       73:1956     40:1929     57:1977     22:1929

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.