Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 060545
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
945 PM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CORE OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES TO INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDGE CORE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A REX
BLOCK PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY...THE 00Z
MODELS FORECAST THE BLOCK TO BECOME TILTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND ULTIMATELY OPEN. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS
FORECAST THE RIDGE CORE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY...AND HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED FRIDAY/S VALLEY HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...SO DID NOT CHANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 108 PM PST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A "REX BLOCK" PATTERN OVER
THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS VERY
STABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST
MODELS KEEP A RIDGE OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THEN
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS
PROJECTED BY DETERMINISTIC MODELS (LATEST MODEL RUN) AND THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH INCORPORATE MANY MODELS AND MODELS RUNS.

GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVING INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN IF THE SYSTEM
PENETRATES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALL IN ALL CONTINUED DRY
AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-05       84:1929     46:1981     57:1890     31:1971
KFAT 03-06       86:1899     48:1952     54:2011     31:1971
KFAT 03-07       84:1899     48:1918     57:1986     30:1969

KBFL 03-05       86:1929     50:1981     58:1975     30:1923
KBFL 03-06       82:1972     51:1958     57:1972     30:1903
KBFL 03-07       83:1993     51:1919     63:1975     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...99
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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