Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 252037
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
133 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2016
Other than the possibility of isolated afternoon or evening
thunderstorms near the Sierra crest, dry weather will be the rule
across the central California interior. Temperatures will run around
average through the weekend and into early next week.
Longwave trough axis positioned to the east of the region and
a North Pacific high in place to the northwest of central
California puts us right in the middle of things with a dry
northerly flow keeping things quiet. Temperatures are running
very close to average across the area. This set up reminds me of
the story of the three bears with our porridge just right. The
only fly in the ointment or rather porridge will be a weak
shortwave that will move through the region tomorrow on the
western periphery of the longwave trough to our east. This could
allow for a cooler push of marine air for the northern parts of
the San Joaquin valley tonight as the marine layer was topping out
around the 2000 foot mark last night and an increase in onshore
flow accompanying this short wave should allow for an increase in
this layer height overnight ahead of this short wave passage. The
shortwave will also increase instability over the Sierra crest
allowing the potential for a few convective developments tomorrow
afternoon, however, moisture will be minute keeping the risk on
the very slight side.
A shot of ridging will move into the region from the southwest
beginning this weekend which will allow an upward trend in high
temperatures through Tuesday. A stronger shortwave is progged to
move into the region by the middle of next week which could lower
temperatures to slightly below average with the synoptic cooling
and increase in clouds to further keep temperatures cooler. An
increase in thunderstorm activity will also need to be monitored
for the mountain areas especially if enough moisture can be
entrained into the system. Timing and strength of this shortwave
is questionable though as previous model runs have not been
consistent which is keeping my enthusiasm and confidence lower.
Smoke from wildfires will reduce visibilities to MVFR in some areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.