Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 251430 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1010 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend
before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Tuesday...Gusty northerly winds this morning will
continue to bring cool and dry air mass into area as canadian high
pressure builds south through this afternoon. Temps will make it
near 70 most places under bright October sunshine. Dewpoint temps
will continue to fall to near 40 most places with some 30s inland.
By this evening winds will diminish as high pressure settles down
over the Carolinas. This will allow winds to diminish and become
near calm heading into the overnight hours. The calm winds in
combination with very dry air mass with clear skies will lead to
cool overnight temps. Temps will drop off rapidly after sunset as
atmosphere decouples reaching down below 50 most places shortly
after midnight and getting down below 45 many places inland.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...The southern extension of a Canadian high
pressure system will slowly transit across the eastern Carolinas on
Wednesday, with consequent dry weather and below-normal temperatures
continuing through at least Wednesday afternoon. For Wednesday night
temperatures will raise back near normal as low-level flow becomes
easterly with the ridge axis passing offshore. A weak low pressure
system will move NE into New England on Thursday, dragging a cold
front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike earlier fronts, this
one will have a modest amount of moisture accompanying it, so
increased cloud cover is likely along with isolated to widely
scattered showers. As moisture is shallow and best upper support
will be passing well to the north do not expect this to be much of a
rain-maker, with only minimal QPF. CAA following FROPA will also be
minimal, so do not expect any further cool-down with this system.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday... Cold front comes through dry around the start
of the period. This boundary will really only represent a wind shift
locally as there is no appreciable cold advection in its wake. In
fact the weekend will show a warming trend each day as zonal mid
level flow and weak surface return flow persist. The latter will be
weak so there will be little to no moistening of the boundary layer.
That said the next back door cold front on Monday will be hard
pressed to bring anything other than a wind shift.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR this TAF cycle with mainly cirrus late. NNE winds
8-13 knots this morning will diminish to 5-8 knots by 20Z, then
light and variable AFT 00Z. Clear skies and calm wind overnight
may result in patchy shallow ground fog. The isolated and thin
coverage should not pose any significant VSBY constraints over
Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers between Thursday 18z and
NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 10 AM Tuesday...Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will
build down into the waters through today. This cold surge will
produce gusty northerly winds up around 15 to 20 kts with gusts up
around 25 kts and seas up to 4 to 5 ft most waters. An Exercise
Caution headline is out for all waters until noon. Conditions will
improve later today as high pressure settles over the waters, with
more benign conditions expected through tonight.
SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Benign conditions will continue across the
waters through the period with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and
seas of around 2 to 3 ft. High pressure will move across the
waters on Wednesday, with a weak cold front moving offshore on
Thursday night. Showers may accompany frontal passage, especially
Thursday afternoon and evening, but conditions are expected to
remain well below advisory criteria.
LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Northwesterly post cold frontal winds on
Friday but the absence of any strong high building in will
preclude any increase in wind speed. In fact winds will likely
weaken as the day wears on. As such seas will remain very
manageable for most mariners, generally capped at 2 to 3 ft. Wind
then turns to west or southwest as a broad and very weak ridge
axis sets up along the Gulf Coast. This could increase wind speeds
by just a few knots.