601
FXUS62 KILM 061339
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will peak today into Tue.
For later Tue into Thu, could see the warmest temps of this
Spring season as ridging aloft, troffing across the inland
Carolinas and Atlantic high pressure situated offshore all
combine to provide an extended period of SW. A cold frontal
passage accompanied with showers and thunderstorms will occur
Thu into Fri, followed by cooler and drier weather for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Little change required to going forecast this morning other than
tweaks to reflect latest conditions. Still expecting scattered
showers and storms this afternoon and evening with the greatest
chances inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Onshore southerly flow could be enough for convection to push
isolated convection onshore this morning. Or the other
alternative, by or after sunrise and the days heating commences,
convection may break out along the immediate coast, ie. frictional
convergence from the increased moist southerly flow and then
push inland. This mostly a Jul thru early Sep occurrence.
Another mid-level s/w trof will move SW to NE across the
Carolinas this afternoon and early evening. Have indicated POPs
peaking at 50-60 across locations away from the immediate coast
during the mention time-line. With flow in the low-levels
veering to the SW after the s/w trofs passage, and NW in the mid
and upper levels later tonight, look for the convective threat
to wane rather quickly after sunset with not much left, if any,
by midnight tonight. Boundary later tonight will be active
keeping winds at the sfc active and the threat for widespread
fog at a minimum, even across locations that receive rainfall.
Highs today will break into the 80s across all locations,
except may hold in the upper 70s at the immediate beaches.
Tonights lows, widespread 60s to 70 at the immediate coast.
This thanks to local SSTs now in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Classic setup for very warm temperatures in place for the short
term. A mid level ridge will be overhead while Bermuda High
pressure sits off the coast. The surface pattern will be
responsible for importing the warmth and moisture whilst the mid
level anticyclone acts to cap convection from being widespread.
The ridging aloft probably won`t be 100% successful in it`s
convection suppression though, as it`s hard to prevent a diurnal
thunderstorm with highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints around
70. A few mesoscale boundaries should manage isolated coverage
of storms. Inland locales will be favorable for initiation but
with an eastward storm motion the coast may not escape a storm
or two, the end result being 30-ish POPs area wide on Tuesday. A
little bit of mid level dry air tries to sneak in from the west
on Wednesday for some slightly lower rain chances. The slight
down-tick in convective coverage and subtle WAA should push most
places away from the water to a high of 90 if not a few degrees
higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front approaches Thursday and mid level ridge axis moves
offshore for WSW flow aloft. Thunderstorm coverage should
return to a roughly 30 percent areal coverage that typifies the
date. Timing continues to be iffy regarding an upper trough
that pushes the front through the area, with a line of strong
thunderstorms defiantly not out of the question, though the
presence of daytime instability more favorable should a
slower/Friday solution verify. Timing issues aside, the front
will usher in some cooler air that will lead to temperatures
being below normal for most of the weekend. Departures will only
be a few degrees but with such a warm week leading up to FROPA
it will be quite noticeable.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Bermuda high pressure will keep a moist southerly-southwesterly
flow across the area terminals with convection drifting onshore
this morning. Further development will occur along the sea
breeze later this morning, affecting the coastal terminals,
before finally pushing inland. Meanwhile, inland terminals
will see convection moving in from the west as well as firing
up as yet another mid-level s/w trof pushes across later this
aftn and this evening. Will identify shra time line but keep
VCTS to highlight the ltg threat at all terminals. Winds
generally SSW-SW 5 to 10 kt thru the period, hier at the
coastal terminals due to sea breeze action into the evening

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Tue. Otherwise, looking
at VFR dominating late Tue into Thu with limited convection.
Flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri from convection
ahead of a strong cold front. Clearing later Fri with VFR
dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Bermuda high`s center to slide further
offshore from the Carolinas this period. A sfc trof will develop
across the western Carolinas later tonight. The sfc pg will
slowly tighten thru the period as a result, yielding a
noticeable increase to the wind speeds this period, outside of
the sea breeze. In addition, the tweaking of the sfc pressure
pattern will veer wind directions from S to SW. Seas to also
reflect with a general 2 to 4 ft accommodating the waters. SE
wave at 5 to 7 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum.

Tuesday through Friday Night...The extended initializes with a
large area of high pressure off the coast. Wind waves will be
southwesterly with a much lesser swell component. The swell
energy may increase a bit Wed into Thursday as the center of the
high moves eastward and a longer fetch develops into the
Southeast Coast. As the swell continues and a cold front
approaches a few advisory- worthy 6 ft seas could materialize
Thursday and/or Thursday night. This front pushes through Friday
though some exact timing uncertainties do exist. A veer to NW
expected post-FROPA steepening wave faces and shutting down the
swell-brining fetch.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB