Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 050816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROPICAL LOW
THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE FA LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...AN AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...AND THUS COULD ONLY GO WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE POPS THRU THIS EVENING. THE W TO WNW
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FLOW ALOFT...WILL AID THE HEATING PROCESS
ACROSS THE SFC OF THE FA TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE HOTTER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
WIDESPREAD 90S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FA...INCLUDING
THE AREA BEACHES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE PINNED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THIS MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE
INCLUDED THE COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE
COAST IN THIS NEW HEAT ADVISORY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE
60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...THUS KEEPING HEAT
INDICES IN CHECK AND BELOW THRESHOLDS. THE ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA THAT SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND...TO
AROUND AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STAGE MAY BE SET FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING COMES OVERNIGHT AT
WHICH TIME THE INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED. MOST LOCALES SHOULD END
UP WITH SOME NEEDED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY  IF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS AS THE FORCING LOOKS QUITE STRONG. WITH THE
FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE QUITE
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
PUSH IN FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ANOTHER FAIRLY HEALTHY IMPULSE ALOFT
WILL KEEP SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... ANY COOL AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORT
TERM FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SEEMS THAT MOISTURE RETURN
WANTS TO GET UNDERWAY ALREADY BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS WANT TO BRING
SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE PICTURE BUT GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO OUR WEST THIS MAY BE OVERDONE EARLY ON.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH AND FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS...THOUGH
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY FROM BR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS
SUNRISE. IF WINDS GO CALM AND HAVE A CHANCE TO DECOUPLE THAN FOG
WILL BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM TO AVIATORS THIS AM. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS ALONG WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING EITHER
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR ALONG THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROF THEN
MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON AND/OR
EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
ILM NC WATERS THRU 6 AM TODAY...MAINLY FOR PESKY SEAS THAT WILL
BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

THE AREA WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA COASTS...AND WEAK TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS. A MODEST SFC PG WILL RESULT IN SW-WSW WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THRUOUT THE PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 7 SECONDS. CONVECTION THREAT TODAY
THRU TONIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... WIND AND SEAS BUILDING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS SUCH CONDITIONS JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY BUT ITS DECELERATING NATURE WILL NOT MAKE FOR THE CLEANEST
OF FROPAS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN AS A RESULT
AND SOME SLIGHT PREFRONTAL VEERING MAY OCCUR. THE SHARPER WIND
SHIFT THEN COMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WAVES MAY STEEPEN EVEN AS
OVERALL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT CONTINUES TO DROP OFF.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD LEAVES BEHIND A VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
PINNING DOWN A WIND DIRECTION AT THIS TIME IS RATHER TRICKY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALMOST BE CERTAINLY BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS. SEAS
WILL THUSLY SETTLE TO

NEAR MINIMAL VALUES FOR THE OCEAN AT 2 FT OR
LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/CRM



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