Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1248 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY. TYPICAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX READINGS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS APPEARS
LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES OF
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN
WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM SATURDAY...SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 4.5 FT
ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL





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