Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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810
FXUS62 KILM 190602
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
102 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure today will move offshore tonight. Low
pressure and its associated front will impact the area late
tonight and on Friday. A strong area of low pressure will move
across the deep south and bring significant rainfall to the
Carolinas during the weekend. Strong thunderstorms are possible
late Sunday into early Monday. Dry conditions will return
Tuesday and Wednesday as mild high pressure builds in from the
west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM Wednesday...Will continue with a N to NE wind 5
mph or less away from the immediate coast...and 5 to 10 mph
along the immediate coast. With the influx of drier air and
little or no pcpn associated with the CFP earlier, will continue
the theme of no fog development even across locations that may
temporarily go calm at times as the center of High pressure
upstream moves closer. No tweaking applied for tonights lows
which will run in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper 40s
across the southernmost portions of the FA. Latest IR sat
imagery trends and various model rh time height displays, both
indicate mainly thin Cirrus advecting overhead overnight with
mostly clear phraseology for sky conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday... Upper ridging and weak surface
pattern to bring a sunny start to Thursday. Late in the day a
few clouds will move in from the SW ahead of the next system and
the ridging aloft moves off the coast. Highs in the low 60s
while cooler than today are still almost 10 degrees above
normal. A more precipitous increase in moisture is slated for
Thursday night. Models have been slowing with the arrival of
rain chances Thursday night. It now appears that most of the
rain is slated for Friday with a weak warm front and mid level
shortwave. QPF prospects appear marginalized by the deepest
mositure being shunted well to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Weak mid level ridge axis will move
offshore Sat, tapping GOMEX moisture for the start of next week.
Strong southwest flow, 300 mb jet exceeds 100kt at times, ahead
of deepening southern stream system will spread deep moisture
over the southeast. Precipitable water values will exceed 1.5
inches at times but there will also be some wrap around dry air
to contend with. Strong low level jet, especially later Sun and
Sun night does still pose a severe weather threat, but both the
GFS and ECMWF have trended slightly faster with the system.
Strong, veering winds ahead of the front, which is now progged
to pass Mon morning, will lead to an abundance of shear but
instability will be lacking. 850mb jet Sun night is likely to
exceed 50 kt, which if mixed to the surface would likely result
in at least a few severe storms. However, mixing will be the
problem, especially given the nocturnal timing. So while severe
weather cannot be ruled out it is more likely to be an isolated
occurrence as opposed to a widespread event.

Stacked low passes over the area Mon into Mon night. Diurnal
convection is likely, mainly in the form of isolated showers and
thunderstorms, as the cool core of the low moves into the area
during peak heating. Trough may become negatively tilted as it
exits the region Mon night but it is not likely to have an
impact on the forecast area. Mid level ridging and weak high
pressure will follow the exiting system and linger over the
southeast through mid week. The surface high has origins in the
southwest with little to no cold air present. Temperatures
through the period will remain above to well above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions throughout the taf period. Surface
high pressure will build in from the northwest early this
morning and from the north this afternoon. The center of this
high will slide off the Outer Banks this evening. Thin to opaque
cirrus will move overhead today becoming thicker with possible
altocu clouds this evening as the mid-level ridge axis moves
overhead. Looking at N to NE winds less than 10 kt except
becoming E to ESE in direction this evening.

Extended Outlook...IFR ceilings and vsbys are possible,
especially across the inland terminals Fri night into Sat
morning as a warm front and rainfall event develops. IFR
conditions possible late Sun into Mon as a strong low
pressure system impacts the area.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 PM Wednesday...Could see a few leftover 20 kt wind
gusts from the N to NE fading surge otherwise the pre-dawn Thu
hours will see a more stable N to NE wind at 10 to occasionally
15 kt. Significant seas will run in the 2 to 3 foot range, with
4 footers across the ILM NC Waters early. Wind driven waves at
4 to 5 second periods will dominate the seas. The easterly
ground swell affecting the local waters for more than a week
now, has finally degraded to the point where it is no longer
identifiable by the local and offshore buoys.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Pretty minimal wind and seas Thursday
as a weak high builds in from the north. This will initially
bring a light NE wind but as the high moves off the coast they
will veer in direction. A light SE flow Thursday night could
allow the daytime 2 ft waves to shrink even further. A warm
front will turn the wind to SW by Friday with no significant
increase in wind speed so waves won`t change much.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface and mid level ridging will
shift off the coast Sat, leaving light southerly flow over the
waters. Speeds will remain 10 kt or less into Sun before
starting to increase ahead of approaching storm system. Well
developed storm will move across the southern states Sun and
Mon, increasing low level southerly flow to a solid 20 kt Sun
night and Mon. Front associated with the low will move across
the waters late Mon with winds veering from south- southeast to
southwest late Mon and Mon night. Cold air is lacking but
gradient will keep winds 15 to 20 kt through the end of the
period. Seas 2 to 3 ft Sat into Sun start to build in response
to the increasing southerly flow. SCA headlines will likely be
needed Sun night and could continue through the end of the
period with seas approaching 10 ft at their highest.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/RJD



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