Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281727
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Showers will increase across the area as moisture of tropical
origins moves onshore through early this week. A strong cold
front is expected to move across the Carolinas late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight has been declared
in the Atlantic but its projected path recurves back out to sea
well before land. There are no projected near term impacts based
on its distance from the forecast area and projected path.
Otherwise, shower are finally breaking out along the coastal
zones, moving from NE to SW along the coast while exhibiting a
slow inland drift. Forecast remains in good shape with only minor
tweaks to the near-term grids. Previous discussion from early this
morning follows:

Mid-level swirl starring in water vapor movies this morning was
migrating landward into the Carolinas, ushering an infusion of
elevated precipitable water content. The vorticity limb was
offering upper support and sensors aboard satellites depicted
PWAT`s near 2 inches streaming SW along the outer banks. Radar was
sensing echoes offshore moving toward the SW around the Cape Fear
region at present, and portions of this convection will move
ashore through morning. Diurnal heating today will play a large
role in a transition from ocean to land convection, beginning over
the coastal interior 1-2 PM, migrating inland through the early
evening. Snarled in the upper flow remains the low level
circulation of former Fiona near 31.5N 69W, tilted back quite a
ways east from the upper low center, so she is not a factor today.
Convection will taper inland with diurnal cooling, but isolated to
scattered ocean showers will still be moving onshore through the
period. Maximums 86- 89 near the coast, and 89-92 deeper inland
today, mins 72-75 Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headline this period, `Tropical
showers with Fiona stalling off the NC coast late Monday into
Tuesday`. Rain chances are good this period as precipitable waters
remain in the 2- 2.2 inch range as moisture off the western
Atlantic continues to ebb ashore. Diurnal heating will play a
large role, expanding interior shower coverage in the afternoons
to early evening, while isolated to scattered convection moves
onshore through the period. Showers and clouds may keep maximum
temperatures tempered into the middle to upper 80s most locations
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Mid to upper trough begins to dig down from
the Great Lakes as it moves east Wed into Thurs. This will push a
cold front southeast into the Carolinas and toward local area by
late Thurs into Fri. But, initially it will act to push remnant
moisture from Fiona eastward and pull up tropical low/wave that
was meandering in the Gulf. This may diminish chc of shwrs closer
to the coast and may see some dry air move down from the north in
northerly flow on Wed into early Thurs, but then front should
makes its way down into the area on Thurs. The tropical low moving
up from the south may interact with front moving southward to
produce increased shwrs/tstms in low level on shore flow Fri into
Saturday. Overall forecast may easily change as it depends on many
features affecting the area and their timing and interactions.

Uncertainty exists in the forecast as the tropical wave/low was
initially supposed to make its way north earlier during mid week
but now forecast to track north later in week. Temps and dewpoints
will drop off next weekend behind cold front and may also be
affected by increased clouds and shwrs in possible unsettled
weather heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z...High pressure along the coast and recently formed
tropical depression #8 offshore will combine to persist moist NE
winds through the valid period. This will create VFR to at times
MVFR cigs, especially near the coast, along with showers and
isolated tstms. The inland terminals may see a few showers today,
but it is drier further west and have opted to leave out any mention
of MVFR or showers at FLO/LBT through tonight. The strongest winds
will be near the coast as well, but NE winds around 10 kts are
expected at all TAF sites.

Tonight, showers/tstms will decrease in coverage but may continue to
develop offshore and move towards the coast. Have not included this
in TAF for uncertainty and it will need to be monitored. More
stratus is possible again tonight, but not expected to be as
widespread as last night due to less cool advection behind the
dissipated boundary. Some fog is also possible, favored inland,
through daybreak before a similar day develops after daybreak on
Monday with NE winds around 10 kts and MVFR/VFR cigs/showers.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as
tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR
Wed/Thu. Shower potential increases again beginning Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight has been declared
in the Atlantic, but there are no projected near term marine
impacts based on its distance from the forecast area and
projected path.

Latest obs continue to show NE winds of around 10 kts with 3 ft
seas over the coastal waters. This fits in well with the current
forecast. No changes needed with the latest update. Previous
discussion from early this morning follows:

In terms of wind, welcoming marine conditions, with just a bit of
E swell to be mindful of in shallower water areas. Otherwise light
NE-E winds on tap 10 KT perhaps a gust up to 15 KT this afternoon
near shore. Showers and a few TSTMS will move from NE to SW today
through tonight and radar updates are encouraged as some of the
storms will pack wind, heavy rain and a few cloud to sea lightning
strikes. Today we should witness the `fore-runners` leading long
period swell from Gaston, perhaps at first 18-19 seconds, but
decaying to 14 seconds tonight. Sea heights from Gaston 1 foot or
less today but up to 2 feet tonight in 13-14 second intervals.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Light winds to prevail this period but an
increase in sea heights is likely, due to swell waves from Fiona
and Gaston, with only a light wind chop expected both days. Seas
should hold in a 3-4 ft range this period but 5 ft outer portion
in E-SE swell. Wave faces will not be steep. Showers and isolated
TSTMS are expected Monday and Tuesday, as former Fiona approaches
the 0-20 NM waters but stalls offshore late Monday and Tuesday
before moving north toward or offshore of the outer banks of NC.
No advisories this period but remember that winds and waves are
always higher in and near TSTMS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Tropical wave/trough extending up from gulf
into the southeast waters, will produce lighter and more variable
winds across the waters. Winds should be more northerly closer to
the coast but may see E-SE winds at times depending on position
and timing of this feature as well as a cold front pushing down
from the north late Thurs into Friday. Overall expect winds mostly
from the E-NE 10 kts or less initially. Seas between 2 and 4 ft will
continue to be dominated by a slowly diminishing longer period
swell up to 13 seconds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ


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