Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 040215
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.  A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STORM IN VERY
NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY...THE AREA IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IT SEEMS
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A 700MB JET PRECLUDED ACTIVITY EARLIER IN
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND IS NOW KEEPING A LID ON THINGS CWA
WIDE NOW. THE FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AND THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS MORESO ALONG THE COAST
VERY LATE. I HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO ADDRESS. I HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY UPWARD BASED ON CLOUDS AND SLOWING MOVING COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER
COLD POOL SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO RIGHT AROUND 70 ON
THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 50. STEEP LAPSE
RATES INDUCED BY THE UPPER COLD POOL WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE
BUT BLOCK IS SHORT LIVED AND BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK MID LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BE HEADING EAST. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE FRI WHEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. PRESENCE OF ANY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE COLD 5H LOW OVER NC/VA WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT THE BEST
ACTIVITY MAY END UP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN BELOW CLIMO FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SAT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL COLD AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE AFTERNOON SHOWERS LESS LIKELY. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN MORE ON SUN AS THE 5H RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW/SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH MON/TUE BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL
MOVE BEFORE STALLING. THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR SO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO SAT WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO SUN THROUGH TUE. IF THE COLD
FRONT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED TEMPS COULD END UP NEAR
CLIMO MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINANT VFR THIS VALID
PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS
AT TIMES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR THE FIRST PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SW WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED PREVENTING ANY FOG.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH AND THIS
WILL SPAWN RENEWED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WHERE TEMPO
MVFR/-TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...LIKELY
NOT CROSSING OFFSHORE UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD...SO THE FORCING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST IN
A SCATTERED NATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE COAST...AND GUIDANCE HAS DECENT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER INLAND AND
HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK THERE...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO AVIATION
OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THEY FLUCTUATE
FROM SW...TO NW...AND THEN BACK TO WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI.
VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP/ADVECT INTO THE WATERS VERY
LATE AND MAY DISTORT WINDS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ULTIMATELY BECOMING WEST AND NW BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLD SURGE FOLLOWING FROPA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRI WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT INTO SAT.
GRADIENT DOES START TO RELAX SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STARTS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS SAT IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LATE DAY SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 2 TO 4 FT
FRI AM TO 2 TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENTUALLY DROPS SEAS TO 2 FT OR LESS SAT BUT DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...JDW



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