Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1224 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest through
Saturday. It will remain dry through Saturday. The high will move
offshore sunday night. A strong and complex storm system will likely
bring soaking rains to the area early next week. The passage of a
cold front late next week will usher in the coldest and driest air
of the season thus far.


As of 930 AM Friday...Weak confluent flow aloft across the Eastern
United States and dry surface high pressure will maintain benign
weather conditions across the forecast area. Other than some
scattered cirrus, clear skies will persist. Max temp schemes from
the 1200 UTC soundings imply highs around 60 to the lower 60s today
most locations. High pressure will continue to ridge across the
area through tonight. While decoupling is expected a light wind
overnight with some cirrus would be enough to prevent optimal
radiational cooling conditions.


As of 300 AM Friday...Chilly high pressure will build across the
Carolinas, reinforcing the chilly airmass Saturday. The high will
then push off the coast Sunday night. An energetic and wet southern
stream system will be organizing along the Gulf Coast late in the
period. A warm front is expected to develop, extending from an area
of low pressure along the western Gulf Coast and then up along the
southeast coast Sunday night. Warmer air aloft will override the
chilly air at the surface and we will begin to see isentropic
upglide increase Sunday and then moreso Sunday night. Sunshine will
begin to fade behind increasing higher clouds later Saturday and
Saturday night. Clouds will lower and thicken Sunday with cloudy
skies by Sunday night. Rain could break out as early as Sunday
afternoon across portions of the area with rain expected throughout
Sunday night. A good soaking is possible early next week.

High temperatures will be below normal through the period, mainly in
the mid and upper 50s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s
Saturday night with some locations as cool as the mid 30s. Lows
Sunday night will moderate to the 40s.


As of 340 AM Friday...To kick off the first full week of
December, anticipate showers across the area Monday morning into
Tuesday as a low pressure system continues to makes its way
from Texas towards the OH valley through the early part of the
week. Differences persist between the ECMWF and GFS, both
temporally and spatially, and thus confidence remains low attm
on the total rainfall expected as well as the duration of the
rainfall across the area. For now have kept with the GFS trend,
keeping rainfall across the area Tuesday and tapering off
Tuesday night. As the system moves out of the picture, focus
turns towards the west as another trough develops by midweek.
Again, differences arise between the ECMWF and GFS for this
system and so the question becomes will there be enough moisture
for another round of precipitation with the cold front towards
the end of the week, or will this feature become moisture
starved by the time it reaches southeastern NC and northeastern
SC. For now will carry low POPs for Thursday afternoon.

Anticipate high temperatures in the low to mid 60`s through
Thursday with overnight low`s in the 40`s. Overnight Thursday,
colder air will quickly infiltrate in behind the cold front
with overnight lows expected to dip into the 30`s.


As of 12Z...VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast
period as high pressure ridges into the area from the southern
Great Lakes. Winds will be rather light generally less than 10
knots except for KMYR. Directions will generally be north with
a west to northwesterly flow after 20 utc. Overnight winds will
be light with a northerly wind of 6 to 10 knots from the north
on Saturday morning. Models are indicating the only clouds with
expected are cirrus clouds moving in late Saturday morning at or
above 20,000 feet

Extended outlook...Clouds and precipitation expected to return at
the end of the period with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions
late Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR.


As of 930 AM Friday...High pressure will prevail across the waters
today and tonight. Initial northerly winds will back to a northwest
direction during the day. A minor surge will build southward across
the waters overnight allowing winds to increase again late.
Choppy/steep 3 to 5 ft seas this morning will improve some this
afternoon, then a return of the steep conditions.

As of 300 AM Friday...Surface high pressure will be reinforced by a
stronger area of high pressure building into the area from the NW
tonight and Saturday. This high will persist across the area into
Sunday. This high will then push offshore Sunday night. Weather
conditions are expected to deteriorate Sunday night and Monday as an
energetic southern stream system begins to organize along the Gulf
Coast. A developing warm front is expected to extend eastward from
low pressure along the Gulf coast and then up along the southeast
coast. N winds Sat will be on the order of 15 to 20 kt with winds
diminishing during the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes
due to the center of the high gaining proximity. The wind direction
will remain from the N Saturday night and then veer to the NE on
Sunday. Where the warm front is able to push through, winds will
continue to veer Sunday night, making it all the way around to the S
by Monday morning. Wind speeds will generally be 10 to 15 kt
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft
Saturday with some 5 ft seas possible across the outermost northern
waters. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft for the remainder of the period.

As of 340 AM Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect unsettled weather Monday into
Tuesday with showers moving across the waters. Northeast winds
10 to 15 kts will continue on Monday, veering to the southeast
and then southwest through Tuesday and Tuesday night as a
boundary associated with a low pressure system well inland lifts
north across the waters. Seas 2 to 4 ft on Monday will increase
to 4 to 6 ft in the outer waters on Tuesday and Tuesday night.





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