Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251943
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
243 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Breezy west/northwest winds continue to pump unseasonably dry air
into central Illinois this afternoon, with dew points only in the
mid to upper 40s at 2 pm. Southeast Illinois was a holdout
earlier, but recent passage of a weak surface boundary is allowing
the dry air to move in as well. Extensive diurnal cumulus field as
far south as I-72 has brought partly sunny skies to areas north
of Peoria, but most areas still enjoying abundant sunshine this
afternoon.

The relatively cool and dry conditions will continue into Monday,
as the broad longwave trough slowly edges eastward across the
Midwest. Main item of concern will be an upper disturbance
currently just north of Minnesota, which will slide southeast into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. Another weak boundary will drop
into central Illinois Monday afternoon. CAPE`s of up to 1000 J/kg
should be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms
with this boundary, with the main focus by late afternoon closer
to the I-70 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

No significant pattern change expected until mid week, when the
western U.S. ridge flattens into a zonal flow. One more cooler/dry
day on tap for Tuesday until the warmer air spreads eastward, with
more typical temperatures and dew points for this time of year.

Second half of the weak will feature more of an active pattern, as
periodic waves traverse the country from west to east, while a
more substantial upper trough/closed low takes shape over the
Upper Midwest. Precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches late
week will enhance some of the rains that occur over the area. Some
showers and storms will be moving in as early as Wednesday
afternoon west of I-55, with the arrival of the first wave. This
boundary will become stationary in a west-east fashion as it
becomes parallel to the upper flow, resulting in an extended
period of rain chances into the first part of the weekend. Severe
weather trends a bit difficult to pick out this far out, dependent
on various MCS`s and leftover mesoscale boundaries.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Main issue is with the
gusty west/northwest winds this afternoon up to around 20 knots.
These should settle down close to sunset. Diurnal cumulus may
bring some brief ceilings around 7,000 feet this afternoon around
KPIA/KBMI but these clouds should also fade with sunset. Late in
the period, a weak boundary will be approaching central Illinois
and may be accompanied by some scattered showers, but these should
largely be after the current forecast period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart


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