Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 061739
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

Band of mid-level clouds associated with a subtle short-wave
continue to stream southward into central Illinois this
morning...primarily between the I-55 and I-57 corridors.  This
band will gradually shift eastward and dissipate today. As
surface high pressure slides off to the east, west-southwest winds
will bring considerably warmer conditions into the area.  Adjusted
highs down by a degree or two based on expected mixing up to
around 800mb, resulting in afternoon highs ranging from the middle
70s across east-central and southeast Illinois...to around 80
degrees in the Illinois River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

High pressure and sfc ridge will slowly move south, but will still
dominate the weather across the CWA today. Skies will remain mostly
sunny through the day, even with a small patch of clouds coming in
from the north. Mid level ridging off to the west will allow some
return flow and warmer temps in the west/northwest, with temps
reaching above normal levels for early May. Mid 70s should be
present in the east, while lower 80s will be possible in the
northwest. Winds will be westerly through the period as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

Shortwave currently seen on water vapor imagery over northern
Alberta/Saskatchewan will be dropping southeast and forming a closed
low over northern Ontario on Saturday. A cold front ahead of it will
be pushing through the forecast area on Saturday. Much of the
associated precipitation will be immediately along the front, where
CAPE levels are expected to rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
during the afternoon. Would not be surprised to see some storms
approaching severe levels along and south of I-72 in the afternoon.
Have increased PoP`s to around 60% during the afternoon from about
Lincoln-Bloomington southeast to Paris.

Evening model suite continues to support the front hanging up in a
northwest-southeast fashion from Nebraska to Kentucky, where it
becomes parallel to the upper flow between the low north of the
Great Lakes and the remnants of a ridge traversing the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will
be common south of a Rushville-Paris line through Saturday night,
but there will be a sharp northern edge to the rain, and the far
northern CWA may stay dry Saturday night. However, the front will be
lifting northward on Sunday, as the upper low currently just
northwest of Los Angles pushes into the central High Plains.
Associated moisture surge will bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday night.

While the original low shears out over South Dakota on Tuesday,
another one will form in its place out of a trough moving out of the
Pacific Northwest. Although the surface system from the earlier low
should be out of the area by Wednesday, there will not be much of a
break before the next system, so rain chances will continue past mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. A
cold front currently extending from northern Minnesota into the
Dakotas will sag southward over the next 24 hours. Skies will
initially be clear this evening: however, increasing mid-level
moisture along/ahead of the approaching boundary suggests ceilings
of around 12000ft developing at KPIA by 09z...then further south
to KSPI/KDEC by around 15z. Winds will remain W/SW...but will
increase to between 10 and 15kt ahead of the front Saturday
morning. Any scattered convection will hold off until after 18z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes



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