Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231105
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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