Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN


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