Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

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