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000
FXUS63 KIWX 161726
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS COLD ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING FLURRIES...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE
20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

MUCH OF PREV FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH BUT
WILL COME TO A STAND STILL FOR A PERIOD AS MSTR FROM THE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE SOUTH EDGES NORTH. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME
RETURNS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE PAST HOUR OR 2 WITH
FLURRIES/VRY LGT SNOW REPORTED AT FT WAYNE AND LIMA. TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS COULD CONTINUE/EXPAND SOMEWHAT FOR A FEW HOURS SO HAVE
WENT WITH 14 POPS AND A MENTION OF FLURRIES TO COVER THINGS.
OTHERWISE UPDATE EARLIER STILL WORKING OUT FOR CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

ANOTHER BENIGN AND COLD SHORT TERM PERIOD YET SEVERAL MINOR CONCERNS
AND QUESTIONS DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND
EVEN PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING
CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WELL OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO COLD AT 06Z AND HI RES 2M
TEMPS NOT MUCH BETTER. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGGING SOUTH BUT IT IS SLOWER THAN MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. THIS IN PART DUE TO EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK RIDING EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
WEAK FGEN FORCING. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE FROM STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS IS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL WITH A
SLOW MOVEMENT EAST. HOWEVER...PCPN IS RUNNING INTO DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR AND SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POP IN WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 12Z GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND
PROXIMITY.

HAVE MADE AN ATTEMPT TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON
OVERALL TRENDS LAST FEW HOURS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...INHERITED MAX
T GRIDS FOR TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN TEMPS AT 07Z. WHILE
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...DOUBT THAT THEY CAN
REACH LOWS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED GIVEN SLOWER FALL AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. THUS WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX T GRIDS FOR TODAY DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS TO SEE SOME SUN AS CLOUDS THIN AND DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WORK IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT REBOUND OF TEMPS
WITH MID MARCH SUN BUT HIGHS STILL REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.
WHILE WEAK GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED...TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET INTO TEENS
WITH LOWER DIGITS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS. REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH LOWS
GIVEN RECENT FORECAST COLD BIAS OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR MIN T ACROSS
OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

A TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE FAIR WX AND A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MODELED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. POTENT PV
ANOMALY PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND SUPPORTIVE JET
STRUCTURE WILL FORCE A RELATIVELY DEEP SFC CYCLONE NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE A SOMEWHAT NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT BUT WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES. COULD SEE A FEW POST FRONTAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE AS
DEFORMATION/TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH WITH CAA BURST. FAIR WX
RETURNS THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
FRONTAL WAVE WORKS EAST AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
(POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH) FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE
OF THIS WAVE RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPS BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KSBN WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS COURTESY OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. AT KFWA...NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRATOCU DECK WAS OVER THE
AIRPORT WITH MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME FLURRIES. RUC/WRF SHOW
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO
GROUP THROUGH 22Z AND CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. NE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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