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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231031
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
631 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the next
several days across the region. Highs today will be in the lower
to middle 70s and lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Highs may struggle to get above 70 in some areas on Thursday. The
next chance for any measurable precipitation doesn`t arrive till
possibly Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure will begin to take control of the region today with
cooler and much less humid conditions. Enough residual moisture
will exist to allow for cu field to pop late morning into this
afternoon, but dry conditions will remain. Highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s with locations along the lakeshore barely
touching 70 with the NW flow off the lake.

Skies will clear out for most locations for tonight. However,
approaching disturbance out of Minnesota will bring enough moisture
and cold air aloft to allow for some lake effect cloud cover. Still
not expecting much more than partly cloudy skies closer to the
lake.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Upper level disturbance will ride the edge of the ridge bringing
increased clouds to much of the area, especially Thursday morning.
Cold air aloft will allow for a pocket of steep mid level lapse
rates (6.5-7 C/KM) which could stir up a few light showers near the
lakeshore areas as well as isolated waterspouts over the nearshore
waters. Will leave forecast dry for the time being given, but may
need to introduce at least some slgt chc pops in Berrien/LaPorte
counties. Will be a raw day by late August standards with some
locations not even getting close to 70, especially closer to the
lake.

Quiet conditions then settle in through the bulk of the period with
the next trough beginning to edge towards the area from the west
Mon/Tues. All models shows spurious QPF from any number of factors
over the area. Confidence remains low if pops will even workout,
especially Monday. Will go ahead and hold onto pops for Mon-Tues
with diminishing trend Monday night with loss of daytime heating.
Exact impacts from what is expected to be remnants of Harvey plus
potential east coast tropical system remain to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions expected to continue through the taf period. Few-
Sct diurnal cu should develop today, more inland than near the
lake. Still decent nw flow behind strong low over Quebec should
allow nw winds to pick up to 10-20kt with diurnal heating/mixing
today.

Shrtwv over Sask will drop se into the Grtlks tonight.
This combined with some lake induced instability and light nnw
flow may result in some strato cu at SBN late tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...JT


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