Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250848
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVE...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. TEMPS ALOFT
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA
AND SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MOVE INLAND WITH THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE. THE SW FLOW WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO
ALLOW FOR A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO COME IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND COLLIDE WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS MAY BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND LINGER THERE LATE
IN THE DAY AND EARLY EVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 90S INLAND
AND EVEN LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP SWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE. SFC RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER S CENTRAL FL. GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. W
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE DOMINATE WITH WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS BEYOND I-95 BY LATE AFTN. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN
THE AREA AND LITTLE DYNAMICS SUGGEST NEAR CLIMO OR BELOW POP FCST
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE SE ZONES. WE HAVE ADVERTISED AROUND 20%
OVER SE GA AND 20-40% OVER NE FL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
HEAT INDICES MAINLY BELOW 105 DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HELPING
TO LOWER AFTN DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY WHEN THE HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
REALIZED. SAT NIGHT...ONLY ISOLD EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH LIGHT SWLY SFC FLOW. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE NEARLY
STATIONARY S OF THE REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A
SHEAR AXIS OVER SRN GA. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE DOMINATE ONCE
AGAIN. EVEN LOWER MEAN RH VALUES ARE PREDICTED AND TAKING AN OVERALL
AVERAGE OF THE POP FCST WE ANTICIPATE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 30% FOR NE
FL AND SE GA ATTM. THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER PER ECMWF
AND GFS AND THUS IT WILL BE A HOT ONE WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 104-108 IN THE AFTN. SUN NIGHT...A
MUGGY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ONLY AN ISOLD
SHOWER/STORM IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
ACROSS TX AND OK DURING THE WEEKEND SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER W AS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
THANKS TO A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE SLIDES SEWD ON THE W SIDE
OF THE TROUGH SUN THROUGH MON. A SFC COLD FRONT POISED OVER THE OHIO
AND TN VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH TUE ENDING UP IN SE GA TUE
AFTN/EVENING. MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY ON MON BUT MOISTURE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER SUNDAY`S...THOUGH DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. WE HAVE PAINTED CHANCES OF
ABOUT 30% AREA WIDE FOR NOW. WE CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MON IN THE MID 90S.

TUE...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT AND ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT CAPPED POPS
AT 40% FOR NOW. LOWER POPS IN SE GA DUE TO DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM
THE NW. WED AND THU...THE WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OR DRIFT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER S OVER NRN FL. A WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT AND TRANSIENT
A WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR W AND E COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW
LEVELS...THE AIRMASS LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND THUS NOT EXPECTING A
WASH OUT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHANCES SO WILL KEEP
THEM IN THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM OF CLIMATE VALUES AROUND
20-30% RANGE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING
THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND TUE DUE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR VSBY FROM PATCHY FOG AT GNV AND VQQ TIL 12Z.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE VCSH AT
GNV BEGINNING AT 13Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS AT 16Z. HAVE VCTS AT REST OF
NE FL TERMINALS AT 17Z AND AT SSI AT 19Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS FROM TS.

&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SW FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SW WINDS INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MAY HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  72  95  74 /  50  50  20  20
SSI  91  77  91  77 /  50  50  20  20
JAX  94  73  93  74 /  60  60  30  20
SGJ  90  75  90  75 /  60  60  30  20
GNV  93  72  92  72 /  50  30  30  20
OCF  93  74  93  73 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS





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