Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GOMEX. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE LOW ENTERS THE NE GOMEX. INSTABILITY
INCREASES SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FL...AND
WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE CATEGORICAL PRECIP. AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THE PRECIP WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH A FLOOD WATCH ON EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH TNGT.
HAVE A GROWING CONCERN ABOUT TNGT...AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINT YIELDS ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF CAPE. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INSERTED SEVERE WORDING WITH THE
TSTMS FOR NE FL THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MAINLY 60S.
FURTHER EAST WITH A BIT LATER PRECIP ONSET...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
MVFR/AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH
PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO WAVES OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NE WINDS 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SPEEDS INLAND TOWARD
VQQ/GNV. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL LEGS THROUGH TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY IMPROVING TO CAUTION NEARSHORE TNGT.
OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SCA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


RIP CURRENTS/SURF/COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
MODERATE RISK SATURDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
SURF HEIGHTS OF 6-8 FEET. WITH CURRENT TIDE LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TNGT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  55  65  50 / 100 100  60  40
SSI  66  62  69  56 / 100 100  60  40
JAX  73  61  71  55 / 100 100  50  40
SGJ  73  63  71  58 / 100 100  50  30
GNV  75  60  72  53 / 100 100  40  30
OCF  77  61  74  55 / 100 100  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET






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