Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 300809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
409 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Today will be rather breezy along the coast, especially at the
beaches where southeast winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph at
times. The onshore flow will once again make for comfortable
conditions out at area beaches Today. Inland heat will be tempered
a bit today due to an increase in clouds, with a healthy cumulus
field and steady stream of high clouds combining to filter out a
good bit of insolation. Locations well inland will not be as hot
as yesterday, but temps will still top out around 90 degrees, a
good eight degrees above normal. Not expecting any records to be
broken today.

Strong upper ridge will hold its own today as upper trough
approaches upstream. Strong capping inversion aloft and
significant dry air in the mid levels will continue to inhibit
convection, but increased low level moisture could support a few
low topped isolated showers along the seabreeze well inland this
afternoon. Any shower activity should be relatively short-lived
and very localized, with the focus shifting westward through
early this evening.

Tonight will be yet another mild and muggy evening with breezy
conditions continuing through the evening hours, particularly near
the coast. Winds will slowly begin to veer towards the south late

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...

An upper level trough will dig southward into the the Lower
Mississippi River Valley with a frontal system moving east along
the upper Gulf Coast. The frontal system will be loosing its
support as it transits the area with general rainfall amounts
between a trace to .75 inches possible with the highest amounts
over coastal Georgia. Of course some locally higher amounts are
possible with local convection but this is not a system likely to
help with the wildfire situation and will have to be alert for
cloud to ground lightning which could ignite more fires.

The front will become quasi-stationary across central and south
Florida with weak high pressure building over the frontal area.
Still might see a few showers over the southern portions of the
forecast area but again general rainfall rates will be low. The high
will begin to push offshore as the next system begins to form over
the lower Mississippi River Valley.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Saturday...Clouds will be on
the increase as the rain shield from the developing low begins to
spread over the upper Gulf coast and Florida Panhandle. On Thursday
the best chance of rain will be over the northwestern portions of
the area with some sea breeze front convergence over the Florida
peninsula and coastal southeast Georgia. Thursday night and Friday
the frontal system and pre-frontal squall line will transit the
area but again general rainfall rates look to be low once again
with rainfall totals through Saturday morning for both systems
being between .5 to 2 inches with the higher amounts indicated by
the European model run.



JAX radar shows strong southerly winds just off the surface, so
amendments were made to add LLWS at all TAF sites this morning.
These stronger winds will mix down to the surface after sunrise,
making for a breezy and gusty day.

A scattered to broken layer of stratocumulus clouds will continue
to stream northward across the area early this morning. Ceiling
heights will generally range between 1000 and 2000 feet through
mid-morning and then lift through the day as mixing increases.
VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals by mid to late



Solid SCEC conditions today will near SCA criteria late this
afternoon through tonight, but conditions should remain just
below SCA criteria.

Small craft advisory conditions will kick in Monday afternoon and
then continue Monday night. A weak cold front will move through
the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning with winds quickly
veering to the north and decreasing behind the front as high
pressure moves in.

Winds/Seas will begin to increase again on Thursday as a stronger
frontal system approaches the area.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to increased onshore flow
Moderate Risk is expected again on Monday.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dispersions will remain high again today due to
breezy conditions. Smoke from the West Mims wildfire will drift to
the northwest across southeast Georgia today. Minimum RH`s will
remain above 40 percent with hot and humid conditions continuing.
Winds will become south to southwest with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night ahead of an approaching
cold front. Will need to be on the alert for cloud to ground
lightning strikes on Monday with relatively light precipitation
from the frontal passage.


AMG  89  70  85  58 /  20  10  50  30
SSI  82  73  82  67 /  10  10  30  40
JAX  86  71  89  66 /  10  10  30  40
SGJ  84  73  86  68 /  10   0  20  50
GNV  90  70  89  66 /  10  10  20  40
OCF  91  70  89  68 /  10  10  20  40




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