Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 231935
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
335 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...
Scattered convection continues to develop over SE GA this afternoon
but very isolated over NE FL at this time, except around Hamilton
county/north Columbia. Models are doing a poor job in general on
this trend and expect that convection will increase as it slowly
progresses southeast through late aftn from areas near Jesup GA to
near Jasper FL. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are the main
threats.

For tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected
through the evening hours inland areas west of I-95 and mainly north
of I-10. Some weak convection could linger around midnight to about
2 AM over SE GA where leftover boundaries works on any residual
instability available, in addition a weak sfc trough extending SW to
NE over southern GA. Otherwise through the night expect a gradual
increase in mean layer moisture at or above what occurred last
night. However, not anticipating much in the way of fog at this
time. Lows generally in the mid 70s, with light southwest to south
winds.

Thursday...A weak front is expected to push slowly south over GA
while ample moisture is available over the region. A sfc trough will
remain south of the front over SE GA into the Suwannee Valley area.
Weak tropical wave over the ern Gulf of Mexico and over portions of
the FL peninsula drifts west to northwest. Moisture levels will be a
little higher and sea breezes will be active. Will likely go with
scattered coverage around the 30-50 percent range, though some model
blends suggest likely POPs now with the latest guidance but not
ready to buy into that for now. Highs forecast in the lower to mid
90s...with heat indices topping out near 105.

.SHORT TERM /Friday and Saturday/...

A weak tropical wave will lift north along the Atlantic coast of
the Florida peninsula on Friday. Enough deep layer moisture will
be in place on Friday to keep scattered showers/storms in the
picture. Onshore flow will develop across our area with
northeasterly winds increasing on Saturday as the tropical wave
interacts with high pressure wedge along the east coast of the
United States. The wave will likely become a weak and broad closed
low east of our Florida coastal waters on Saturday with a trough
extending back across the central Florida peninsula.

Deep, rich tropical moisture and increasing coastal convergence
will bring an increase in rain chances to parts of the area on
Saturday. Drier air aloft will work into our northwestern zones on
Saturday and keep parts of southeast Georgia completely dry.
Numerous showers/storms, however, are expected across portions of
northeast Florida, especially along and south of a line from
Gainesville to St Augustine, closer to the surface trough. The
onshore flow will bring us some relief from the heat on Saturday
with below normal daytime temps.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

The low should move steadily northeast away from our area on
Sunday and Monday with troughing continuing to extend back across
the Florida Peninsula. Onshore flow and lingering tropical
moisture will continue to support below normal daytime temps and
scattered/numerous showers/storms across northeast Florida. Lower
chances of rain will continue across portions of inland southeast
Georgia, especially in and around the area from Alma to
Hazlehurst.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and a few storms have started this
afternoon. Using model trends, and radar have included some brief
TEMPO groups for KJAX and KVQQ for MVFR and gusty winds. Another
round of scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday, mainly aftn
hours. Otherwise...prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...A south to southwest wind flow will continue through late
Thursday night before a frontal boundary sags southward into the
region on Friday. A southeasterly flow expected rest of this
afternoon into early evening with some sustained winds around 15
knots over the nrn waters which will veer and slowly decrease by
sunrise Thursday. On Friday and Saturday...broad low pressure just
south/southeast of the waters and the front dropping into south GA
and north FL will bring winds around to the northeast to even north.
As the low slowly moves northeast over the Wrn Atlantic, winds could
approach SCA conditions late Saturday which may continue into Sunday
night. Highest chance of SCA (20 kt) looks to be Sunday at this
time...with guidance suggesting better than 50 percent chance of SCA
over the nrn half of waters. Seas are forecast to push upwards to 5-
8 feet Saturday night into Sunday...highest in the offshore waters.

Rip currents: A persistent and long period east southeasterly ocean
swell will keep a moderate risk of rip currents in place at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  74  91 /  30  40  40  30
SSI  78  91  78  88 /  20  40  30  40
JAX  75  93  76  89 /  20  50  20  40
SGJ  75  92  77  88 /  20  40  20  40
GNV  74  94  75  91 /  30  50  20  50
OCF  74  93  75  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Shuler



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