Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 191407
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1007 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER WEATHER TODAY WITH WAVES OF MODERATE RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

.UPDATE...

SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SHIELD OF HIGH
CLOUDS BLANKETING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN OVER SE GA
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TODAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WAS OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH A SHALLOW NE
FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE GA/SC COAST...SW
ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY. ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG NEAR HOMERVILLE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...AND FOG HAS SINCE LIFTED INTO A STRATUS DECK. THERE WERE
2 AREAS OF PRECIP TO MONITOR THIS MORNING. ONE WAS A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF
THE GA COAST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND THE OTHER
WAS LIGHT RAIN STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
FL ZONES. THE 12Z JAX RAOB CONTINUED TO SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AT 500 MB AROUND
-11 DEG C.

FOR THE UPDATE...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ANTICIPATE A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTORMS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN LIGHT RAIN TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES TO 60% FOR THE COAST AND OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TSTORMS ADVERTISED GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
AND LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER THE AREA. IF A STORM DOES MANIFEST...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER
OUR NW GA ZONES THIS AFTN WHERE MORE HEATING WILL OCCUR. HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY NEAR THE LOW/MID 80S OVER OUR NW GA ZONES...TO THE
LOW 80S OVER NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH SSI AND CRG BY
MID MORNING...WITH PROGRESSION INLAND TOWARD JAX AND VQQ. PRECIP WILL
ALSO EDGE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF TOWARD GNV INTO THE EARLY AFTN. CONTINUED
WITH VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH TEMPO MVFR PERIODS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH MID AFTN. REMOVED TSTORM MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN ABUNDANT DRY
AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS LIMITING INSOLATION.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDE TS AT TERMINALS AS NEEDED. AFTER
SUNSET... PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM W-E. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS TO SSI AND CRG...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT NE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EAST INTO THE AFTN 10-15 KTS. COMBINED SEAS WERE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FT...WITH SOME 3-4 FT POSSIBLE OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT
AS FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE ENE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SAT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. LINGERING SWELLS OF 2 FT WITH
10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK TODAY.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH LINGERING SWELLS WILL
LIKELY KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  68  83  66 /  50  30  50  40
SSI  80  71  81  72 /  60  60  70  60
JAX  82  70  83  69 /  60  50  60  60
SGJ  80  70  82  71 /  60  50  70  60
GNV  82  66  85  67 /  60  30  50  50
OCF  82  67  85  68 /  60  30  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH






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