Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 030805
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM ERIKA WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ALONG GLYNN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
CIRCULATION...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALSO NOTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY
84...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE NEAR HAZLEHURST.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND A LACK OF A SEA BREEZE MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES 100-105F.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE EVENING HOURS...THEN
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AS PWAT`S ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 2 INCHES.
SHOULD STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE INLAND WHERE SEA BREEZES MERGE.
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE
UNDER 90 AT THE COAST BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE SOUTH
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE. HAVE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. HWY
301 WHERE NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL MERGE WITH WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SOME STORMS THERE MAY BE STRONG AS A RESULT AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. NE FLOW
BEHIND FRONT RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE MAX TEMPS STAY IN THE 80S WHILE AREAS WELL
INLAND STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADE INTO THE
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A SFC RIDGE WILL WEDGE
DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL FORM
OFFSHORE CREATING NELY TO E FLOW SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN A POTENTIAL WET PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA WITH SCATTERED
POPS ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER. A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
PATTERN EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS AND A RIDGE
MOVES IN ACROSS CNTL AND SOUTH FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE LOCATED CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF GLYNN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...AND A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KSSI THIS
AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE IS NOT FORECAST...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOWER WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING...BRING A LIGHT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
SSI  87  76  89  76 /  20  20  30  30
JAX  90  75  92  73 /  20  20  40  30
SGJ  92  75  89  75 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  92  73  92  72 /  30  20  50  40
OCF  92  74  91  73 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/


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