Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 311807
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.NEAR TERM...
BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MSAS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH A LOW NE OF BRUNSWICK. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING TO OUR NORTH ALONG THIS AXIS. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION IS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
STEERING FLOW IS PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE NE. THE NAM
SHOWS A DOUBLE BARREL LOW FROM SFC TO 925 MB LOCATED OVER SE GA
AND EAST-CENTRAL FL WITH A MESO-HIGH IN BETWEEN. THIS EXPLAINS THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE SERN
ZONES...AND A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POPPING IN THIS AREA. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NWD OVER OUR ERN ZONES...WITH OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 20% THERE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA INTO THE EVENING
AND ANY ACTIVITY NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WILL END WITH SUNDOWN.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S. LOWS ELSEWHERE
WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH THE TROUGHS APPROACH...RESULTING IN POPS RETURNING TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS. WILL USE SCATTERED COVERAGE AREA WIDE FRIDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST
TO THE TROUGH AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE/NO SHWRS OVERNIGHT
OVER LAND AREAS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED...WITH READINGS MAINLY
AROUND 90. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FOR THE LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHINESS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TO LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP CHANCES WILL PREVAIL FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY DUE TO VERY LOW CHANCES NEAR THE TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR AT VQQ...JAX OR GNV LATE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN A DOMINANT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. NOCTURNAL SURGE TONIGHT WILL BOOST
WINDS TO NEAR CAUTION CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THIS HIGHER
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SW ON MON/TUE.

RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RISK IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  93  74  92 /  20  40  30  50
SSI  78  88  77  86 /  10  30  30  40
JAX  71  92  74  91 /  20  30  30  50
SGJ  75  90  75  89 /  10  40  30  50
GNV  69  93  71  92 /  20  30  30  50
OCF  70  93  72  92 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/ALLEN




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