Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 010844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SUN MORNING)...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FL
BIG BEND AND UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY MORNING
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE BIG BEND COAST AND PROPAGATE
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL MEAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR INLAND FL COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM THE FL/GA BORDER DOWN
THROUGH MARION COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVER FL WITH SOME AREAS
ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN SHOULD DIE OFF FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

BY SUNDAY MORNING... FRONTAL POSITION IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND SW
FLOW BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SW OF OUR CWA.

.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVE WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND WILL HAVE A
RETURN TO MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN NE FL AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FL TERMINALS
THROUGH 16Z. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IN GNV BY
10Z AND MOVE INTO THE NE FL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  93  73 /  60  30  40  30
SSI  84  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  40
JAX  87  75  89  74 /  80  50  60  50
SGJ  85  75  87  76 /  70  50  60  40
GNV  84  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50
OCF  84  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/PETERSON



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