Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 220120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM APPROX OCALA TO DAYTONA BEACH. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT
NORTHWARD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LIFT/ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX
WITH TRACK NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. THIS WILL BRING
A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES. EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE BASED WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS. THE NORTHEAST WEDGE OF COOLER
AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT SOME 60S
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW OVERCAST DECK JUST OFF THE
GROUND IS PRODUCING SOME REDUCED VBSYS IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN COOLED AIR CONTINUES
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
ZFP/GRIDS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MON MORNING WILL AVERAGE AROUND
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH ISOLD HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES WHERE
HEAVIER BAND SETS UP...THE 18Z NAM IS LEANING TOWARDS THE FL/GA
BORDER WHILE THE 18Z GFS HAS MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF SPREAD ACRS
MOST OF NE FL...WITH A HEAVIER BAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY...MODELS STILL TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO TEND TO LIFT THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY TO ALMOST THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH 70S EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY 50S/60S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. SKY COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE AT ALL AND EXPECT
CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER ACROSS SE GA WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS SOUTH OF
WARM FRONT ACRS NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS DECK LOCKED IN TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS COASTAL WEDGE SLOWS THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT. LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
EVEN SOME VLIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN
STRATUS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT WE WILL LEAVE TSRA OUT UNTIL WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND LOCATION. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN ON TUESDAY MORNING AND
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE THOUGH THAT GNV WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE COASTAL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NORTHEAST WEDGE OF WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LATE
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BI-SECT COASTAL WATER
WITH NE WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS SE GA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH
FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS NE FL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING MODERATE RISK ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  58  55  70 /  70  70  50  80
SSI  54  60  59  67 /  80  80  50  60
JAX  56  68  60  76 /  90  80  40  60
SGJ  60  69  62  73 /  90  80  40  50
GNV  61  74  62  77 /  90  80  50  50
OCF  63  75  63  78 /  80  70  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/WALSH




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