Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 011941
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST...WITH A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PROVIDING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN GA WILL
ENTER INTERIOR SE GA BY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NE FL BY LATE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL ENTER
NE FL MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING SE TO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY
AFTERNOON...EXITING LATE AFTN. NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH
THE FRONTAL CROSSING THAN IS THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL USE CATEGORICAL
POPS AS THE FRONT CROSSES LATE TNGT/MONDAY. WITH SOME SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL
INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE HIGHEST PRECIP COVERAGE AREAS. LOWS
TNGT WILL BE WARM DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60SFOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH MONDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS OF 60-65 FOR SE GA AND 65-70 FOR NE
FL. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY...BUT
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW NORMAL. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
MORNING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE AND A GULF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC INCREASES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS
DIFFER WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK AND MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD RAIN
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO GA WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND COLDER AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING BACK TO AVERAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING LOWERING TO LOW END VFR BY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR SHOWERS WITH THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND CROSSING. WITH TSTMS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS 9-13 KT THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO SW 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LATE TNGT...SHIFTING
TO THE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTN...INCREASING FURTHER TNGT TO MID/HIGH END SCA WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT/MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO
SCEC NEARSHORE BY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
POSSIBLE MONDAY. WITH THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL
LEAVE CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE LEGS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCEC NEARSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A GULF LOW
CROSSES THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH ONSHORE/SIDESHORE FLOW AND
LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL. LOW RISK MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSIONS ON
MONDAY. RH VALUES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR A RED FLAG
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  60  31  54 /  90  90   0   0
SSI  57  62  37  52 /  50  90   0   0
JAX  59  66  36  56 /  40  90   0   0
SGJ  61  68  43  56 /  10  70   0   0
GNV  58  65  36  60 /  40  90   0   0
OCF  59  67  37  62 /  20  80   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA


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