Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 281804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PST SUN DEC 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRISK AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA
DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS GOING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AHEAD OF THE MID
WEEK COLD LOW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY
FOR VALLEY ZONES AND THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID 30S AROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SEATTLE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH OREGON
AND CALIFORNIA THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND ARRIVE IN SO CAL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WED. THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING WERE EVEN COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WITH THICKNESSES NOW DROPPING TO AROUND 523DM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY EARLY WED WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -6C. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN LA COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES OVER
AND THE EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT MTN
SLOPES. ELSEWHERE IT`S NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR PRECIP DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE SO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. ACROSS COASTAL LA COUNTY A SLIGHTLY BETTER SET
UP TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE BRIEF UPSLOPE SO BETTER CHANCES THERE
FOR SOME PRECIP.

THE TWO LIKELY BIG IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NE MTN SLOPE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED AND THE VERY COLD LOW TEMPS NEW YEARS MORNING. WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW EVENT,
THOUGH IT MAY BE A TOUCH EARLY TODAY.

COLD WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISHING SHOWERS
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BACK TO COOL DRY WEATHER FOR THE XTND PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER DRY NW FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE TROF TO THE EAST AND AN EAST
PACK RIDGE TO THE WEST. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS/FG AT KPRB AFTER 12Z
MON...OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.

KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
28/1000 AM PST.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE
LOCAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY. SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATER MON
NIGHT AND CONT THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS TUE NIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

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