Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 190531 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY TO RAISE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE
CLOUDS INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
VENTURA/L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE COAST AND VLYS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SALINAS VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT OFF
TO THE E THRU SAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
SWRN CA BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN BUILD FURTHER INTO SRN CA THRU SUN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER BUT FLATTEN OUT FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MTNS ON SAT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SAT THRU MON. NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COAST AND SOME VALLEY AREAS THRU
MON...AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS SAT.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THRU MON. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AND
OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT NIGH THRU MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. MODERATE
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS SAT
EVENING. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT...THEN WARM FURTHER TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUN AND MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A TROF MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DYING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SPIT OUT A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TUESDAY MORNING
BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKS LIKE AT BEST A DEEP MARINE LYR/DRIZZLE
EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW. MAIN THING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL DROP A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES MOST AREAS TUESDAY. COOL AND BREEZY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS. THEN TURNING WARMER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0530Z...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND
IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS SAT. EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING SAT.

.KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 09Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT THAT
CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING.

.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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