Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 241439
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY THEN A COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...A DROP
IN TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
THE BAREST OF RIDGES WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP FROM KSMX TO KSBA AND THIS WILL CREATE
ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE
SBA SOUTH COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE GAVIOTA AREA.

A TROF WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT IT WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE
CLEARER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL START OUT
CLEAR BUT WILL CLOUD UP AS AN EDDY AND THE APPROACHING TROF COMBINE
TO BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WHERE THE NORTH WINDS WILL SHUNT THEM AWAY.

THE MODELS REFUSE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLN FOR FRIDAYS RAIN CHANCES THE
NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE DRY AND FCST ONLY SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHILE THE EC AND CANADIAN BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA. FEEL THE DRIER SOLNS ARE CORRECT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
HOW WEAK THE SYSTEM LOOKS ON SATELLITE BUT COULD NOT IGNORE THE TWO
WET MDLS AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THE SAN DIEGO
FORECAST OFFICE BELIEVES THE EC SOLN AND THATS WHY THERE IS A
GREATER CHC OF RAIN FOR THE OC AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. NO MATTER
WHAT HAPPENS THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER AND IT WOULD
BE SURPRISING IF ANY AREA SEES MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 5500 FEET BUT THERE WILL BE
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE
AND SLEW OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTY AS
WELL AS ALL THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. MAX TEMPS WILL PLUMMET 8
TO 15 DEGREES AND WILL FALL 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT EARLY SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE VTA/LA MTNS. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AND BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE AT
WORST PARTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE EXTRA SUNSHINE THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH WARMING AT ALL MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST. IN FACT
ALL THE LEFT OVER COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY FURTHER COOL THE INTERIOR
WITH THE ANTELOPE VLY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 60S OR ABOUT 16
DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THEN THERE WILL BE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. ON SUNDAY DRY
SLIGHTLY ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP AND HGTS WILL RISE. UNDER
SUNNY BLUE SKIES MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDLESS SKIES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THEN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE ROCKY MTNS. 584 HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ALMOST EVERYWHERE SAVE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME VLY LOCATIONS FROM
COOLING MUCH OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

ALL THE MDLS DISAGREE ABOUT THURSDAYS FORECAST BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THERE COULD BE ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1145Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR KSMX...KPRB...KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 10Z FRI
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DELAY UNTIL AFTER
12Z FRI MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS ACROSS KSMX AND KSBP
AFTER 10Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 10Z FRIDAY MORNING. 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/4:00 AM PDT...

GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR OUTER WATERS ZONES PZ673...PZ676 AND FOR INNER
WATER ZONES PZ650...PZ655 VALID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY PRE
DAWN SUNDAY MORNING...

FOR TODAY...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. INNER WATER ZONE PZ645 BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND
POINT SAL WILL EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVE. BY FRIDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD
AND COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY FOR THE
LOWER HALF OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES SOUTH OF POINT ARGUELLO
AFFECTING THE OUTER AND INNER WATERS. NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ANACAPA
ISLAND. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INNER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME PRE DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN REDEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND BETWEEN 4 AND 8 FEET ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED THERE WILL BE STEEP SEAS MAKING FOR DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS. IF YOU ARE NOT AN EXPERIENCED
BOATER...SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO AND DURING GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...KJ

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