Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.