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FXUS64 KLUB 272346
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR with light and/or variable winds. Recent TS have exited SW of
LBB; however, a more solidified area of TS has since organized in
the northern Panhandle and concern is increasing that these will
survive their journey south tonight, possibly reaching CDS, PVW
and LBB before 06 UTC. Omitted TS mention from the TAFs as
confidence is not high enough at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 146 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Convective initation has already occured this afternoon, firing near
a surface trough located roughly from Clovis to Borger, supported by
surface dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and, as
evident from water vapor imagery, a swath of mid/upper level
moisture. Additional popcorn type showers are dotting areas of the
Rolling Plains and South Plains within a general weakly-capped and
moist air mass. Similar to the last couple of days coverage should
remain isolated with slightly better coverage associated with the
more organized convection coming south from the Panhandle. With
diurnal heating the main driver here we should see a significant
decrease in coverage to outright dissipation with sunset.

The upper ridge will expand eastward on Thursday, and with it, mid
and upper level air noted on water vapor imagery. As a result models
returning to warmer and drier pattern. MOS seems to have a handle on
high temperatures while mentionable rain chances look to be limited
to the southern Rolling Plains where deeper moisture will linger.

LONG TERM...
The medium range forecast will be characterized by warm and humid
weather continuing and only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms...most of that being early in the extended period.
From Thursday night right into the weekend, the upper ridge centered
over the Southwestern Conus and Great Basin will keep northerly flow
aloft across West Texas with only isolated or widely scattered
diurnal thunderstorms. A seasonally significant disturbance is
depicted moving southeast around the ridge from the central Plains
into OK late Thursday night. That system has the best chance to
produce some scattered thunder across the southeastern Panhandle
into Friday morning. Also, outflow may play a part in keeping the
chance for precipitation a little higher across the north...ie the
southern Panhandle counties.

As we move into the weekend, the ridge very subtly begins to expand
to the east with rising heights to the north of us into the central
Plains. That will make precipitation harder to come by, with the
eventual establishment of 595 dm heights close to the mid Miss
valley, in addition to a secondary high center near the 4 Corners.
The result of this for W TX will be slowly increasing temperatures
and decreasing instability. Also the weak pressure gradient and
corresponding light surface wind regime that we have enjoyed will be
replaced by breezy afternoons even as early as Saturday as surface
lee side troffing helps to ramp up S/SE winds. Pops will dwindle
into the weekend and for most of next week under this ridge with the
best albeit low chance pops for the western South Plains and
southwestern Panhandle as a monsoonal flow pattern becomes better
established. Temps should be within a few degrees of 100 for much of
the period on the Caprock with even warmer readings above 100 for
our lower elevations to the east of Lubbock. James

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93


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