Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 011119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO START WITH AT LEAST. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AREA WITH SHREDS AS FAR NORTH AS KMAF AT DAYBREAK. WE
COULD YET SEE A FEW SMALLER PATCHES FORM NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB
IN THE UPCOMING TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT CHANCES FOR CEILINGS APPEAR
MINIMAL. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
MIX OUT JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SO WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS FOR KPVW IN PARTICULAR NEAREST THE MAXIMUM...LESSER
SO AT KLBB. INVERSIONS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER CHANCES TODAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS
COULD APPROACH KPVW AND KCDS VERY LATE TONIGHT...DID NOT INCLUDE
WITHIN THIS TAF SET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SUMMER-
TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700
MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALIGNED
CLOSELY TO THE EXPECTED NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS.
WE WILL TRIM MENTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL THOUGH STILL
HUGGING OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS THIS MORNING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY MIX ENOUGH FOR MODEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ANYWAY JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT ON TRACK FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH A DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPELL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. A
MEANDERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...IMPACTING FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE 30 KNOT
BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THURSDAY BEFORE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND ROBUST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKE SHAPE...FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COME INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES FOLLOWED BY LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY.

WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEES AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY BRING SOME OF THIS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. FURTHER AIDING LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT MAKES
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE PARENT DISTURBANCE
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  66  89  63 /   0  20  30  40
TULIA         92  67  89  66 /   0  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     91  66  89  67 /   0  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     92  67  91  67 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       92  69  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   91  65  92  65 /   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    92  67  92  66 /   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  72 /   0  10  20  30
SPUR          92  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     94  73  95  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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