Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
434 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Low surface dewpoint depressions are spotty and non-uniform so far
this morning with depressions of 1-10 degrees F or more. This range
will likely narrow later this morning as temps begin to cool and
dewpoints slowly rise which could in turn lead to patchy fog
development. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate by mid
morning as temps begin to warm again and winds pick up out of the
south/southwest to the 15-20 mph range as a lee trof deepens and
digs southward from the foothills of the Central Rockies. An upper
high will also build in overhead during the afternoon to help ensure
temps rise into the 80s once again. Overnight should be uneventful
with no expected threat of fog as winds will still be in the 10 mph
range out of the southwest.

Upper level high pressure center over Chihuahua will flatten along a
NE-SW axis on Saturday as a few disturbances pass to our north. In
general, southwesterly flow aloft will return for early next week
with minor shortwaves well NW of the region.  However, by late next
week, indications are that more substantive trough axis may dig into
the Sonoran desert.  Beyond Wednesday, guidance sharply diverges but
things appear as if a Gulf High will slide westward--a pattern much
more typical of the summertime.

Quiet and warm weather will persist through Tuesday as there are no
indications of a cold front making its way into the region though
one looks to come close on Sunday. Breezy conditions are anticipated
just about each afternoon as the lee trough strengthens to our west.
However, that will change late Wednesday. That is, for the NWRN part
of the CWFA as a cold front looks to stall out. Some convection may
fire along the front Wednesday evening.  Storm chances may continue
into Thursday though the blends look to be quite overzealous on
prospects given the absence of any respectable boundary.  Have
therefore brought POPs back into a more reasonable category given
the noted blend biases in the extended.




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