Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.