Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 261031
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
331 AM PDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Rain is spreading inland early this morning.
Precipitation at the coast range from around half an inch in Coos
County and around an inch in southern Curry County. Snow levels so
far are around 6000 feet and not quite as high as we had
anticipated. The occluded front will move inland early this
morning and will keep the snow levels around 5500-6000 feet. While
this is higher than the Siskiyou Pass, snow could accumulate on
Hwy 140 pass across the Cascades, and a winter weather advisory
was issued through 5 pm this afternoon for Oregon Zone 27 which is
the Cascades down to Crater Lake. Snow is expected across the
southern end of the Cascades as well but amounts are expected to
be less. Travels across Highway 66 and Dead Indian Memorial
Highway could also be impacted.

The front will also bring gusty west to southwest winds to areas
east of the Cascades from late morning today. H7 winds are
forecast to increase to 43 knots and a wind advisory has been
issued and will continue today. Of concern are winds at Kingsley
Field which could gust up to the mid 30s Early this afternoon.

Precipitation is expected to turn to showers late this afternoon
but NW flow aloft will keep upslope snow showers going in the
mountains. Additional inch is expected at Crater Lake and in the
Cascades down to around the California state line. Little to no
addition precipitation is expected in Siskiyou and Modoc Counties.

On Thursday a ridge will start to build into the eastern Pacific.
NW flow aloft is expected to weaken with precipitation confined
mainly to Coos and Douglas Counties, and in the Cascades down to
around Crater Lake. The upper level ridge will build into our area
Friday and Saturday. High temperatures are expected to return to
seasonal norms on Friday (which is around 65 for Medford) then
rise to around 70 next weekend. During this time the thermal
trough is expected to build northward to the coastal area with a
drying trend at the upper slopes and ridges.

The latest GFS/ECMWF show a weak front moving across WA and
northern OR Sunday. This will weaken the ridge slightly with
possible showers north of the Umpqua Divide. This scenario would
lead to slight cooling on Monday, down to near seasonal norms.
However we could be in for a period of drastic warming from next
Tuesday as both the GFS/ECMWF are now advertising a large area of
ridging from the eastern Pacific into the West Coast. Highs in the
upper 70s are not unreasonable for Medford around the middle of
next week. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF CYCLE...A cold front will move toward the
area tonight. Widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities will impact
coastal areas tonight into Wednesday morning with moderate rain and
local LIFR. Conditions there will begin to improve after 14z
Wednesday after the cold frontal passage, but a mix IFR and MVFR is
still expected through Wednesday afternoon. The coastal mountains
will remain obscured through late afternoon.

Inland, conditions will deteriorate to mostly MVFR with occasional
rain and higher terrain obscured overnight into Wednesday. Areas of
VFR are expected early in the night ahead of the front, and IFR is
possible with the front late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Precipitation will become more showery Wednesday afternoon with a
mix of MVFR and VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds will develop east
of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 kt are
expected at KLMT, which will likely lead to some bumpiness on
takeoffs and approaches. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 250 AM PDT Wednesday, 26 April 2017...
A steep fresh southwest swell will flatten early this morning.
Southwest winds will veer to northwest around sunrise as a front
moves through. Offshore high pressure is expected to build in from
the southwest on Thursday and then persist through the weekend.
Northerlies are expected to become gusty Friday and persist into
early next week with the strongest winds and steepest seas likely
to be south of Gold Beach during the afternoon and evening hours.
DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for ORZ030-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon ABOVE 5500
     FEET for for ORZ027.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW



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