Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010813
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TODAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN TO KENANSVILLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS IN THE EVENING...THEN LIMITED POPS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70
COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY WITH
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSHOWERS.

SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY TREND FOR SUNDAY AND
HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY 20 POPS FOR THE AREA WITH JUST AN ISO
THUNDERSHOWER AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS COULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
80S COAST. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
INLAND THOUGH MAINTAINED SMALL POPS COASTAL AREAS WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPS RISE SOMEWHAT. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE AS HIGH AS THE MID
90S INLAND...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADV CRITERIA
TO BE MET WITH GENERALLY LOW 100S EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AS TD`S
WILL BE IN THE 60S WHERE HOTTEST TEMPS OCCUR. MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES...ISO TO SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL POOL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEREFORE KEPT 20-30 POPS COASTAL AREAS FOR THE THREAT OF ELEVATED
THUNDER EACH NIGHT. 01-00Z ECM/CMC BRING SFC FRONT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY 20 POPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECM ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEAN BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST CONUS. ECMWF IS A DAY FASTER THAN THE
GFS...SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ECMWF DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED THREAT FOR STORMS WITH
25-30 KT OF DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE...THOUGH AT THIS LONG RANGE AND
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR SEVERE IN HWO
QUITE YET. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT MORE TOLERABLE WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AT TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...DRY FORECAST FOR PGV AND ISO. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OTHERWISE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS
MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISO STORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST BL
AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS AT 3-5 FEET
OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT AND 2-4 FEET ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS 10-20KT LATE SUN. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 6
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL


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