Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 052343
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH WILL RETURN NORTH TONIGHT.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TOUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENN VALLEY...WHILE
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER.
THESE COMBINE FEATURES HAVE CAUSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST
SUPPORT FOR LIFT. SOME OF THE OUTFLOWS FROM CENTRAL NC HAVE
DEVELOPED BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE MEANDERING SURFACE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
MOST OF THIS EVENING TO BE RAIN FREE...BUT DID CONTINUED WITH
30-40 POPS ALONG WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN CASE ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOWS BOUNDARIES. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS BOTH SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY EFFECT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER THOUGH LIFTS NORTH...HAVE KEPT 20-30 POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT...MOSTLY CLEAR/PT CLDY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LIKELY SPREADING IN
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPR 70S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO NE WITH
MORE SHRT WV ENERGY OVER ERN NC COMPARED TO SUN AFTN. ALL MODELS
INDICATE SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST 30-50
POPS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED...NEAR 90 INLAND TO MID-UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S OF 345 PM SUN... A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS INCREASE LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINLY WITH TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO RETROGRADE THE RIDGE AND BUILD IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS ON TO THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD. WPC PREFERS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN
THE SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE FOLLOWED A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
PEAK AROUND 1445M ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND.
THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS ON TO THE RIDGE...MAINTAINS SIMILAR
THICKNESSES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS BACK TO
AROUND 1425M WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. EITHER WAY IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 90S MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. FORECASTING SOUNDINGS
ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...BUT
AT THIS TIME HAVE INDICATED SCT007 FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES
(PGV/ISO) AND SCT010 FOR OUR COASTAL SITES. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE LEADING TO PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IT LOW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO START BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. S/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NRN WATERS WILL
RETURN N TONIGHT...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SW THERE. TYPICAL
OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN WILL PREVAIL REST OF AREA
TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS MONDAY...PRODUCING SW WINDS 10-15 KT AND
SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL
HEATING INLAND...WILL BE THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BRINGING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AND COULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SHIFTING TO
N/NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN AGREEMENT
KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...TEMPORARILY INCREASING UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM



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