Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
121 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will
prevail through the week ahead. A weak cool front will approach
from the north Thursday, then remain stalled over the mid-
Atlantic region through Sunday.


As of 115 AM Monday...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for this update, just tweaked grids to reflect current
trends. Another warm and muggy night expected with Bermuda high-
type pattern. Mostly clear skies prevailing with just some thin
cirrus overnight. Min temps similar to last night...73-75 inland
and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.


As of 330 PM Sunday...only change for Monday from today is models
are indicating low level thickness values a few meters lower which
results in max temps a degree or so cooler. Max temp forecast will
reflect this but will still see several hours of Heat Indices 105
to 109 for all but Ocracoke, and posted another Heat Advisory
accordingly. MAV and MET MOS dew point guidance continues to be
underdone for inland sections with forecast afternoon readings in
lower 70s. Both guidance products have been indicating this for
past 2 days and KPGV and KOCW dew points have remained around 75
both Saturday and Sunday. Went with persistence forecast.

Models continue to indicate no convective development again Monday
with subsidence inversion likely keeping area capped.


As of 330 PM Sunday...No significant changes were noted in the
24/12Z model suite which continues trend of long duration heat
wave through the extended with minimal precip chances. Will
highlight the dangerous heat indices through next weekend in the
HWO. An east- west oriented upper ridge with above climo
hts/thicknesses will be responsible for the above normal heat and
humidity for most of the eastern CONUS through late week and into
the weekend.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...A strong upper level ridge
will build east from the southern Plains across the SE/Mid
Atlantic regions producing hot temperatures into the mid 90s and
afternoon heat index values aoa 105 degrees. Strong subsidence and
minimal short wave activity will preclude any convective activity
through Monday night. Weak short wave energy moving across just to
the north Tuesday along with increase in deep layer moisture with
PW values building to around 2 inches, would support a very low
chance for a shower or thunderstorm for the northern tier
generally north of hwy 264 Tue afternoon through evening.

Wednesday through Thursday...Med/long range model suite continue
in good agreement with upper ridge axis shifting slightly south
with some troughing developing into the Ohio valley and NE U.S.
This will allow the base of the westerlies and the track of mid
level shortwaves to brush NC for the mid week period, which will
lead to slightly better chances for diurnal showers and
thunderstorms for mainly interior zones and continued low chance
pops for the sct activity. Continued hot temps with dewpoints
well into the 70s will continue heat indices aoa 105 which is in
line with WPC values between 105-110 each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Long range model suite diverges somewhat
on evolution of the heat ridge this period, with the ECMWF/CMC
camp rebuilding the ridge across the southeast/mid atlantic and
the GFS slightly more suppressed. Have favored the former soln due
to more support from ensemble mean. This soln favors continued hot
and humid, and in fact the ECMWF suggests even hotter temps for
the Friday/Saturday period which will continue the long duration
heat wave with heat indices nearing 110 degrees by Friday. Precip
wise, have lowered pops to just slght chc each afternoon as
capping inversion will limit even diurnal convection. Temps will
continue mid to perhaps upper 90s for highs with very warm
overnight lows mid 70s interior to low 80s beaches. Sunday may
finally bring some relief in the oppressive heat/humidity if short
wave across the great lakes region can push a cool front towards E
NC which would bring a better chance of showers/storms to the


Short term /Through Monday/...
As of 115 AM Monday...Good aviation conditions expected through
the period with mostly VFR conditions expected. Continued to trend
with persistence given little/no change to airmass. Some patchy
sub-VFR fog will be possible overnight with mostly clear skies and
light winds, with best chances at OAJ, similar to yesterday
morning. Sct diurnal cu expected to develop again Monday with
light SW winds.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as strong mid level ridging persists across the
region with only minimal convective activity expected mainly
during the afternoon/evening for Wed/Thur. With any storm,
conditions will tempo drop to sub VFR. May see patchy BR each
night as humidity vals will be high and winds light.


Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 115 AM Monday...No changes needed with this update. Latest
obs continue to show S/SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts to near 20
knots across the outer central and northern waters and seas 1-3
feet. Persistence forecast during period with little change in
surface pressure pattern indicated. Southwest winds will continue
cycle of speeds around 15 KT this evening, lowering to around 10
KT overnight into Monday morning, then increasing again Monday
afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet through Monday morning, increasing to 2-3
feet Monday afternoon.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...The models continue to indicate typical
Bermuda high/inland thermal trough pattern through the period,
resulting in persistent SW flow around 15 KT across the waters.
Winds may pick up to up to 20 KT during the late afternoon and
evening hours as the thermal land/sea gradient maximizes. A weak
cold front may approach the northern waters late Wed into Thur
which will decrease the winds. The front will quickly weaken
though with SW winds 15 KT re-developing by Friday as the thermal
gradient increases again. Seas will be 2-3 feet through the period
with some 4 ft sets across outer waters for late afternoon/evening
period Tue coinciding with the gustier SW winds.


NC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.


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