Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 221321
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
921 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area through the weekend.
Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and
Bermuda early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 920 AM Friday...Weak high pressure continues to build
over the area today. Despite this the higher resolution models
indicate there could be isolated showers this afternoon as
residual moisture remains marginal. Confidence in this is low
plus coverage would be 10% or less so will leave out of the
forecast. Otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies are expected
with high temperatures again well into the 80s or about 5 to 7
degrees above normal. Not feeling much like the first day of
fall, which officially arrives at 402 PM this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Another clear sky and calm night expected
with patchy dense fog possible. Lows will drop back into the 60s
away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 am Fri...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will extend down across the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Maria. Eastern NC residents and
interested parties should continue to monitor the latest
official forecasts from NHC.

Friday night through Sunday...Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north through the
weekend, as the remnants of Jose meanders off the NE and mid-
Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level thickness
values support above normal temps with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s coastal plain to low
70s Outer Banks.

Sunday night through Thursday...Hurricane Maria is currently
forecast to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week.
Eventual track will be determined by several factors including
the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. It is
still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC,
which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast
it gets. Regardless of the exact track, rough surf and
dangerous rip currents are likely this weekend into next week,
as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds,
minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also
possible. Slight chance/low chance rain showers, mainly along
the coast, possible through Wed. An approaching front will bring
a chance of showers Thursday. Temps through the period, near to
slightly above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid
60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 730 AM Friday...IFR vsbys at KPGV, with brief MVFR vsbys
elsewhere in fog through 13Z, then VFR today. Just a few clouds
around 5,000 through late today. With calm conditions again
tonight, fog possible again especially toward KPGV. Most
confident in at least MVFR vsbys but IFR can`t be ruled out.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/...
As of 3 am Fri...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Sub-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers
Mon and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Fri/...
As of 920 AM Friday...Still getting a few 6 foot waves off
Oregon Inlet and Duck so the current small craft advisory is in
good shape north of Ocracoke Inlet. Later today Maria swell will
slowly build through afternoon putting most of our coastal
waters above 6 feet north of Ocracoke, otherwise, winds will be
less than 10 kts through tonight, starting out of the northwest
today and gradually backing toward the west to west- southwest
tonight.

Tonight, swell from Maria will continue to increase tonight and
this should be enough that we will start to see some 6 foot
waves south of Ocracoke to Surf City. Issued a small craft
advisory tonight to account for this.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/...
As of 3 am Fri...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will build down into the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and
next week, though models continue to slow it down and keep it
slightly further eastward. Mariners and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
NHC.

N/NE winds 5-15 kt Sat, 10-20 kt Sun then likely increasing to
15-25 kt Mon and Tue as Maria lifts northward. Long period
southeast swell will gradually build through the period, peaking
mid week. Small craft seas forecast through the entire period.
Have capped seas at 14 ft for the central waters mid next week.
Still too soon to determine specific impacts from Maria, but
dangerous seas expected and gusty N/NW winds will be possible.
Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/EH
NEAR TERM...JME/EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...EH/HSA
MARINE...JME/EH/HSA



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