Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 261332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 929 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA BUT WITH A
WEAK TROUGH FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOW/MID CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 931 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
LOOSE GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD



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