Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 031049
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
649 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NW WITH SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WHILE SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND SEABREEZE. WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING THOUGH WILL CONTINUE SC
POP. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 70-75 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A BACKDOOR SFC FRONT PROPELLED BY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS/SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VIA ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN A MAINLY DIURNAL
DRIVEN PRECIP CYCLE BUT CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DROP BACK ON THE STRENGTHENING POST
FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS NC WILL BE
BETWEEN MULTILAYER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH/NE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE AND INVERTED SFC TROF OFF THE COAST.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRY TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
BROAD UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE SE STATES AND THE INVERTED TROF
SHARPENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES AND FILLS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS SHUD LEAD TO LESSENING PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA
FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCD
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...OVERALL BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS AROUND 2
FT. VARIABLE WINDS DIRECTIONS TODAY AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO
EASTERN NC...WINDS BECOMING N/E NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SW SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
TONIGHT...AND MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING. SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD 1-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...NW/NORTH WINDS EARLY FRIDAY BECOME NE AND
INCREASE AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. NE/E WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD


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