Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
354 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A weak cold front will move through Eastern North Carolina today.
High pressure will build over the region Saturday with another
cold front crossing Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure
will rebuild over the area through the middle of next week.


As of 255 AM Fri...Latest sfc analysis shows 1017mb low over NJ
with attendant cold front draped through the mid-atlantic and
western NC. The cold front will continue to move eastward this
morning, and should push off the NC coast late morning into early
afternoon. Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers across the
Albemarle Sound with some additional activity over SE VA. Lowered
pops this morning, keeping sc across the northern tier for the
next few hours, and then sc along the immediate coast early this
morning. High pressure will build in from the west behind the
front today, bringing northerly winds across the area, though very
little change to the airmass. Low level thickness values and
northerly flow support highs ranging from 65-70 degrees for the
northeast counties and Outer Banks...and mid 70s across the
southwestern counties.


As of 255 AM Fri...High pressure will build over the region
tonight. Good radiational cooling expected overnight with mostly
clear skies and calm winds...with lows dropping into the mid to
upper 40s inland and low 50s along the coast.


As of 330 AM Friday...Dry regime expected to persist through
period with broad surface and upper ridge prevailing. Only
interruption will be a quick short wave trough and associated dry
cold front late Sunday night/early Monday. Temps expected to be
5-10 degrees above normal most of period.

Saturday-Sunday...Upper riding and winds becoming west-southwest
will lead to a warming trend over weekend. Increasing low level
thicknesses and downsloping winds will likely result in diurnal
temp rises near 30 degrees for inland sites Saturday with highs in
mid to upper 70s after lows in mid-upper 40s. Southwest winds will
keep temps in mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday night and push inland
highs into low-mid 80s Sunday.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Shearing short wave trough in W-NW flow
aloft will push a dry cold front through area late Sunday night
into early Monday. CAA will produce cooling trend but will be
offset by heights rebuilding quickly behind short wave, allowing
temps to remain above normal Monday-Tuesday with highs from mid
60s northern OBX to mid 70s inland.

Wednesday-Thursday...continued ridging surface and aloft will
produce warming trend for Wednesday with inland highs near 80
again. More vigorous short wave trough will approach from NW
Thursday with weak initial dry cold front passage indicated during
the day Thursday with only minor cooling of warm temps.


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1240 AM Fri...VFR conditions currently with sct/bkn mid
clouds over the area ahead of an approaching weak front. Expect
pred VFR conditions through the period, though there will be a
small window between 10-14z where we could see some MVFR fog and
stratus develop. Any sub VFR conditions should dissipate quickly
this morning as drier northerly flow develops in the wake of the
frontal passage.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 am Friday...VFR/dry weather forecast through the
period. High pressure across the southeast states will be the main
feature into Sunday. A dry cold front will pass through late
Sunday night, but little moisture associated with it so no rain is


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 255 AM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 10 to 20 KT with seas
3-4 ft ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradients will tighten
early this morning and expect 15-20 kt across the waters with
gusts around 25 kt across the coastal waters north of Cape
Hatteras with seas building to 3-5 ft. Will continue SCA north of
Hatteras through early this morning, though appears marginal at
this time based on latest obs. Could see some frequent gusts to 25
kt on the outer waters between Lookout and Hatteras through early
this morning. The front will push through the waters this morning
with winds becoming northerly 10-20 KT and seas around 2-4 ft
across the southern waters and 3-5 ft northern waters. High
pressure will build in behind the front late today and tonight.
N/NE winds 10-15 kt tonight will gradually diminish to 5-10 kt
late with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Surface high moving across waters from NW to
SE will result in light/variable winds Sat morning becoming W-SW
and increasing 10-15 KT Sat evening into Sunday. Dry cold front
will push through from NW-N late Sunday night with post-frontal
surge of N-NE winds around 15 KT moving across water Monday. NE
winds will gradually diminigh Mon night into Tuesday.

Wave guidance in general agreement of heights mainly 2-3 feet
Sat-Sun, building to 4-5 feet Monday and subsiding to 2-3 feet


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150-


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