Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300745
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL NC AND EASTERN SC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1 INCH EARLY WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL, BUT WILL CONTINUE SC SHOWERS INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S INLAND...AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH NE/E FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT COULD HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE DEEP INLAND AND UP TOWARDS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS, THOUGH
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WELL INLAND SUNDAY BEFORE
PIVOTING TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -4 TO -6...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCE CONTINUE IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES TUESDAY
AND THIS LEADS TO THE ECMWF BEING MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS...AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE INLAND LOW PRESSURE TRACK. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS AT 30-40 PCT LEVELS TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALONG WITH
CANADIAN SHOW ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NEAR OR JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A WETTER SCENARIO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MID-LEVEL LOW
CLOSING OFF AND DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS DEEP CYCLONGENESIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW. MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY THOUGH EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LATEST GDNC AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
RE-DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...THEN PERSIST AROUND 2500 TO 3500
FT DURING AFTN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3KFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
DEEP INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CEILINGS AGAIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THINK
MOST OF THE SUNDAY WILL BE VFR BUT CONDITIONS LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE WITH SEAS 3-5FT...AND E/SE WINDS 5-15KT WITH SEAS 2-3FT
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WATERS. NE/E FLOW 10-15KT
TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT BECOMING SLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF 6 FOOT
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT BECOME N/NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
5-15 KNOTS. PER LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 4-5 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD/CTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC


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