Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011523
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUN...ISSUED NEW SET OF ZONES TO REMOVE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...AS OF 229 AM SUN...COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST.
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING
INTO DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVAPORATION CAUSING ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT BEST DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. BUT POSSIBLE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN LOCALIZED
SPOTS...AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IN AREAS WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS...WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERTURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE LIQUID. MAJORITY OF MOISTURE INITIALLY
EVIDENT IN CROSS SECTIONS AROUND 7H WITH DRY LAYER AROUND 8H. DRY
LAYER MOISTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON SO  EXPECT MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF TIL AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASES. MOISTURE LIMITED TO AREAS BELOW 7H SO PRECIP WILL BE LOW
TOPPED.

COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY TURNING WINDS TO
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN SECTIONS TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
WEST WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S.
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION FOR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 239 AM SUN...COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT EARLY DURING THE
EVENING WITH FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LOSE
MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL
HAVE DECREASING POPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
CONT CHC POPS MON MORNING MAINLY CST WITH RAIN ENDING BY AFTN.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS
THE FRONT STALL TO THE S AND HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N. HIGHS
MON MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH 30S MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHCS GRAD
INCREASING THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S/NEAR 50 N
TO MID/UPR 50S S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO
CONT LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S
INLAND. NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES
MUCH COOLER WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR IN TIMING OF FRONT NOW AND SHOW STRONG CAA DEVELOPING BY
12Z THU AND CONT THRU THE DAY. BASED ON THIS SIGNIF LOWERED TEMPS
LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. PRECIP WILL END LATE THU/THU EVENING
FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE
REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES
FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN
THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUN...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS. TEMPERATURE
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAY BE FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MID
MORNING FOR ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
START TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED PRECIP EARLY...MAINLY CST WITH POSS SOME LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS. BY MON AFTN DRIER AIR SPREADS IN WITH VFR EXPECTED
THAT WILL CONT INTO TUE MORN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS
WARM FRONT LATER TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH SCT RAIN. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT
AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME
SNOW INLAND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH
OF THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUN...NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
DURING THE MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW OVER THE WATERS TO TURN
AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...INCREASING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20...BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.

PREV DISC...AS OF 246 AM SUN...ALL FLAGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS SEAS AND WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LOOSENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. WILL
SEA SPEEDS PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATESR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MON. WNW
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EARLY WILL BECOME N DURING AFTN. SEAS MON
MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET WITH POSS OF SOME 6 FOOTER FAR OUTER WATERS.
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE N WITH SEAS CONT 4 TO 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS. WINDS BRIEFLY
DIMINISH TUE MORN THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4
FEET EARLY TUE THEN RAMP BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING
HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE
NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N
WINDS THU WITH BIG SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/RF
MARINE...HSA/CCG/RF



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