Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 292019
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM TUE...QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CONTINUE ISOLD -RA ALONG
THE COAST AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONT LIFTS
NE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE FLOW. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25. NO POPS FCST.
COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH MID 80S AND PTCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THURS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFFSHORE WITH
LIGHT NLY FLOW BRINGING UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
REGION. PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 80S OBX.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY LATE IN THE
WEEK WHILE THE OFFSHORE TROUGH MIGRATES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
JET WITH SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH AS
WELL AS PWATS INCREASING TO ABOVE 2". TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS HAVE GROWN IN RESPECT TO THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRENDING SLOWER...MOVING THE TROUGH INLAND
LATE FRI/FRI EVENING VERSUS THE ECMWF WHICH MOVES THE TROUGH IN
LATE THURS NIGHT. SIMILARLY...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
FLOW ALOFT DECIDED TO CAP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...WITH A FRONT OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...SOME CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER WINDS STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR AND POTENTIALLY CALM
CONDITIONS...FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES. BASED
ON COND PRESS DEF AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...OAJ/ISO LOOK TO BE
THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR DENSER FOG FORMATION. ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BURN OFF WITH BL MIXING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NE/E.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PUTTING E NC IN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WED WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY
BE NE TO E 5-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURS
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE EAST AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE
FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER...
BRING THE TROUGH INLAND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME SLY AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JAC/SK






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