Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271734
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM SAT...SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MAINLY CALM WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNSET AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS TRENDING
DRIER OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED MENTION OF POPS. CONTINUED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE LOWS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW. EXPECTING MID 40S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 50S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH ECMWF BEING
THE STRONGEST AND SLOWEST. OPTED TO BLEND ECMWF/GFS/PREV FCST FOR
THE FRONTAL FEATURE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TIL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
MONDAY. TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DROPPING THEM A
BIT ON SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY RAMPING UP TO LIKELY BY THE DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO
KEEP TUESDAY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK....KEEPING THE FCST DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS INTO FRIDAY...WARMING A BIT ON SATURDAY AS FLOW RETURNS
TO SOUTHERLY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUILDING BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BECOMES BETTER SATURATED UNDER SW FLOW. FOG WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
EWN/PGV MAY SEE SOME BRIEF FOG/LOW STRATUS. SO HAVE THAT IN THE
TAFS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM BOTH THE WEST AND SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ILLUSTRATING VSBYS
REDUCING TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS. HAVE KEPT THIS OUT FOR NOW. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO SUB-VFR BY MID-DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHOWERS BUT MOST LIKELY EARLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1222 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST. SPEED BELOW 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHIFTING ALL WINDS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS 10
KNOT OR LESS.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SAT...AS MENTIONED IN LONG TERM DISCUSSION THERE WERE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME ON MONDAY. BLENDED
ECMWF/SREF/GFS/PREV FCST FOR WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE. SW WINDS ON
SUN WON`T GET TOO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AROUND 15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT SEAS EXCEPT A FEW 5
FOOTERS IN THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
PEAKING AROUND 20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THIS
TIME AND HAVE SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 6 OR EVEN 7 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/LEP
MARINE...RSB/CGG





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