Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 160711
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE SUPPLY AND DYNAMICS NOT THAT GREAT AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THIS AREA TODAY WITH THE REMAINDER DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTANCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
OAJ AND EWN WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4
FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD WILL REACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS
DEVELOPING ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.