Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250229
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
929 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
tonight. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
the area Saturday evening. High pressure will build in Sunday
then slide offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will
cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure
will build in behind the front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 PM Fri...Weak low off the coast will cont to slowly
lift NE overnight. Rdr shows a few isold shra still approaching
srn OBX but given limited coverage and model trend of no
measurable precip will keep pops out. Skies mainly clear over
the region and temps are quickly approaching dewpts...still
looks good for area of fog and stratus to develop overnight.
Some dense fog likely but not confident enuf on coverage to
issue dense fog advisory. No change to lows with mostly low 50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Friday...Fog and low clouds should dissipate by
late morning with a window of strong insolation expected late
morning through early afternoon. This coupled with strengthening
southerly flow will help to produce record warm temperatures
with highs in the inland in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some mid
80s are possible in the normally warmer locations. Temperatures
along the Outer Banks/Crystal Coast are a little trickier.
Today the flow was out of the SE off the gulfstream and highs
reached the mid 70s. Saturday the flow is expected to become SW
off the cooler shelf waters which could mean lower highs. Went
with a blend of MOS to yield highs in the lower 70s.

SPC has extended the "Marginal" Severe threat into the counties
south of the Albemarle Sound. Although forcing is weaker across
the southern portion of the advancing cold front, the will be
favorable unidirectional deep layer shear and instability to
warrant a low end damaging wind gust threat after 20Z. Will
indicate higher PoPs north (30-40%) and extend the precipitation
risk a little further SE with this forecast issuance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri...A cold front moves through the area Saturday
evening bringing a short-lived cool down with temps near-normal
Sunday. A warming trend returns Monday through mid-week with
increased rain chances Monday night through early Thursday.
Another cold front will push through the region Wednesday night
or early Thursday with high pressure building in for the latter
half of the week bringing dry conditions and relatively cooler
temperatures, although they will still be above seasonable norms
for early March.

Saturday Night through Monday...Ongoing isol/sct tstms mentioned
in the short-term will quickly push offshore by mid-evening as
a cold front sweeps across the region. High pressure builds into
the region through Sunday bringing a cooler and dryer airmass
across the region, which then slides offshore Sunday night and
Monday with southerly return flow commencing a warming trend
Monday. Lows will drop into the 40s Sat night with gusty NW
winds developing after fropa. Highs will be near climo in the
50s Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning with
good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm
winds. Temps will rise into the 60s on Monday.

Monday Night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through
SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into
Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching
from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid-
week. 12z model suite coming into better agreement with a good
coverage of showers Mon night into the first half of Tue,
however models continues to diverge Tue night into Thu with the
GFS wetter and faster pushing the cold front through Wed
evening while the ECMWF has limited QPF until late Wed night and
doesn`t push the cold front trough the region until Thu
morning. Will keep slt chc of tstms Tue as models moderate
instab and shear across the region. A high shear/low CAPE
environment will be in place Wed/Wed evening ahead of the cold
front and continued slt chc of tstm mention this timeframe as
well. Guidance continues to indicate further warming through the
week as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once again
and yield high temps in the 70s most areas Tue and Wed. Cooler
temps Thu behind the front with highs in the low/mid 60s except
upper 50s OBX.

Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will build into the
area from the west late week bringing dry conditions and cooler
temps. Lows drop back into the 30s to lower 40s Thu night with
highs around 60 inland to mid 50s OBX Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through Saturday/...
As of 620 PM Friday...Expecting widespread IFR conditions to
develop again tonight in fog and low clouds after midnight as
good radiational cooling occurs allowing temps to reach dewpts.
The IFR conditions are forecast to end quickly Sat morn with
increasing SW flow. An approaching cold front is expected to
produce SW wind gusts 20 to 25 kt late morn thru the aftn. Wdly
sct TSRA poss along/ahead of front late in day but best coverage
mainly to the N so no mention in tafs yet.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM
Fri...Mainly VFR through Monday then increasing shower chances
mid week with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. Isol
showers/tstm chances quickly end early Sat evening with VFR
conditions and gusty NW winds developing by mid-evening. A much
drier/cooler air mass builds in Sunday into Monday, which should
limit overnight fog threat Sat night into early next week.
Moisture increases across the area Mon night through Wednesday
bringing a threat of showers/isol tstms with sub-VFR conditions
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 925 PM Friday...No changes with large ESE swells keeping
seas in the 6 to 8 foot range outer waters much of the
night.

Prev disc...Although winds are expected to remain light east
/15 kt or less/ through tonight, Small Craft Advisories will
remain in effect for the coastal waters due to 6 to 9 foot swell
associated with low pressure southeast of the waters. The swell
will begin to dissipate late tonight and early Saturday, but
then winds will become S/SW ahead of an approaching cold front
and increase to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. This will keep
seas elevated above 6 ft throughout the day.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Fri...SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt Sat
evening ahead of an approaching cold front which, combined with
lingering SE swell, will build seas back to 5-8 ft Sat night.
Winds will shift to NW 20-25 kt behind the cold front Sat night
and early Sunday with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt Sun
afternoon with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft by Sun afternoon.
Light winds are expected Sunday night, becoming southerly 10-15
kt Mon. Winds become SW and increase to 10-20 kt Tue/Tue night
and to 15-25 kt Wed ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas
build up to 4-7 ft Tue and to 5-9 ft Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temps for Sat 2/25

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...MHX



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