Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
633 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

A weak front will stall near or just north of the region
through Wednesday then drift offshore and dissipate Thursday.
Offshore high pressure will dominate this weekend. A stronger
cold front will approach from the west early next week.


As of 630 AM Tue...Small cluster on convection sliding off srn
coast currently with very isold activity further upstream. High
res models suggest once current batch is gone bulk of morn to
early aftn will be rain free then with heating and increasing
instab will see additional wdly sct to sct shra and tsra
redevelop this aftn. With sfc based capes expected to reach
close to 2000 and decent shear cant rule out a cpl strong to svr
storms later today into the early evening. Plenty of clouds
today however shld see enuf peaks of sun for highs ranging from
lower 80s cst to mid/upr 80s inland.


As of 245 AM Tue...Will cont with mainly low chc pops tonight
with weak bndry remaining near the area with poss weak impulses
crossing aloft to produce some forcing. Timing and cvrg in doubt
but with axis of higher precip wtr cont over area think will
have at least wdly sct cvrg. Will remain warm and muggy with
lows upr 60s to around 70 inland to lower 70s cst.


As of 330 AM Tue...What looked to be an unsettled pattern for
the long term is appearing now to be more on the dry side, at
least until Sunday and early next week when a more formidable
front approaches the area. It will continue warm and humid with
above normal temps continuing through the weekend.

Wednesday-Thursday...heights/thicknesses rise a bit this period
so only expected diurnally driven isolated storms along the sea
breeze front Wed into Thur. For Thur, the seabreeze will be
pinned to the coast as synoptic flow is weak northerly, so only
slight chances near the coast with interior sections dry. Temps
continue quite warm with 85-90 interior to near 80 beaches.

Friday...Perhaps a slightly better chance of precip arrives on
Fri as a subtle shortwave pivots through the Mid
Atlantic/Southeast. Have a bit higher pops on Fri with best
chances for storms interior where 30-40 percent advertised, with
only 20 pop coastal areas. Another hot day with highs around 90
inland to low 80s coast.

Saturday...Probably will be a mainly dry day as now hts/thicknesses
are trending higher on the more consistent ECMWF, which has
support from the CMC. GFS appears too wet per its synoptic
regime with Bermuda high pres in control. Did not want to drop
pops too fast, and therefore continued to advertise a 30 pop
interior to just 20 pop on the beaches. Warm and humid again
with highs 85-90 inland to low 80s coast.

Sunday-Monday...This period will bring a better chance of
organized precip as ensemble mean hts indicating stronger
shortwave diving SE across the Great Lakes which will drive a
cold front towards E NC. Have 30-40 pops for this period.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Tue...Outside of convection expecting mainly VFR
thru the period. When shra/storms cross will likely see brief
periods of sub VFR...this will be mainly during aftn and early
evening. Late tonight will again have light winds and cant rule
out patchy fog and stratus but confidence is low so not adding
to fcst.

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Mainly VFR through the period, though
occasional periods of sub-VFR in isolated afternoon and early
evening shower/storm each day. Surface winds will be less than
10 knots Wed and Thu, and 10-15 knots Fri and Sat.


Short Term /Today and tonight/...
As of 630 AM Tue...No signif changes planned. Convective outflow
leading to some changeable winds early but shld eventually see
pred SW flow central and S and variable to SE far N near bndry.

Prev disc...A weak front will linger near the northern waters
this period. Over central and srn wtrs expect pred SW flow 10 to
15 kts today that will diminish to 10 kt or less tonight. For
nrn wtrs will see light winds thru the period with dir tricky
with front near area. Seas mainly 2 to 3 feet all wtrs...may see
a 4 footer far outer central wtrs later today when SW winds

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Weak front will cont near or just N of nrn
wtrs Wed with light mainly SW winds northern waters to SW 10 to
20 kts central and S. Seas will cont 2 to 3 ft N with 2 to 4 ft
central and S. The front will push off the coast Thu then
dissipate with brief period of light NE to E winds in its wake
Thu morn to mid day with 2 to 3 foot seas. Sw flow of 10 to 15
kts returns Fri with high offshore and seas will build to 2 to 4
ft. SW winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts Sat as grdnt
tightens with trof developing inland. The increase in winds will
lead to seas reaching 3 to 5 ft Sat.




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