Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 270907
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
407 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOME ENHANCED RADAR RETURNS
PASSING NE ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT TEMP DEW
POINT TEMP DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE. THUS...LOOKS SAFE TO CARRY NO
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATER TODAY FOR MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL DOES REACH NE TN BY
21Z TO 00Z...BUT MOS POPS ARE VERY LOW FOR NE TN AND SW VA WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST.

THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY THICKEN TODAY...SO NE
AREAS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH AT LEAST A MOS BLEND. WRN AREAS
STARTING OUT QUITE MILD THIS MORNING...SO 55 TO 60 FOR MAXES LOOKS
REASONABLE. ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE 07Z TEMPS IN THE GRIDS BY 3 TO 7
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE PASSING CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP TO THE HIGHER GFS MOS POPS AND
ADDED SOME MODERATE RAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT. GFS MOS MINS WERE
FAVORED OVER THE NAM MINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STEADY RAIN SUNDAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ONLY EXPECT ABOUT A
10 DEGREE RISE FROM MORNING LOWS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH
ABOUT ONE INCH FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING MONDAY MORNING AT 12Z.
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS
COULD HAVE OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD WHICH COULD CAUSE
ISOLATED FLOODING. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM IS FASTER WITH ENDING PRECIPITATION BUT GFS
AND ECMWF KEEP SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. GFS HAS SECONDARY LOW MOVE NE ALONG FRONT MONDAY WHICH
SLOWS IT DOWN. POPS MONDAY HOWEVER WILL BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
MAINLY IN THE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DECREASING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY SHIFTS UPPER FLOW TO
NW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHER PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  46  57  46 /  40 100 100  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  44  57  44 /  20  90 100  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  44  54  43 /  20  90 100  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  40  55  42 /  10  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD



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