Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
FXUS64 KMRX 270729
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
329 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
A weak cold front will move through the area today. There is very
limited moisture associated with this boundary, and models continue
to indicate only scattered showers across the forecast area. QPF
totals will be light, with most locations seeing a tenth of an inch
or less of rain. SPC`s day one outlook depicts the potential for
general thunderstorms over NE TN/SW VA, but with weak instability
and limited shower coverage, the potential seems low and have left
thunder out of the forecast for this afternoon. The front clears
the area this evening and winds will shift around to the WNW behind
the frontal passage. Despite cloudy skies today, high temperatures
will remain mild, climbing into the 70s in most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...
Building ridge of high pressure aloft on Friday and Saturday, will
flatten Sunday as a shortwave trough moves eastward out of the
Great Plains across northern Ohio and Pennsylvania. Ridge then
becomes re- established across the area on Monday through the end
of the fcst period. Result is main jet energy and associated storm
track that will remain well north of the area traversing the Great
Lakes and southern Canada.
At the surface, a summertime looking subtropical ridge...absent the
moist airmass...persists across the area. Trailing edge of a weak
cold front tries to reach into our area Sunday, however only result
is some increased clouds over the northern third of the area with no
accompanying precipitation. Surface ridge then strengthens across
the area Monday through the mid week.
Daytime highs over the next several days will be well above normal
for late October and early November. With temperatures reaching into
the lower 80s in spots, some locations...particularly over the
southern half of the area...may be on watch to break records as
forecasted high temperatures come to within 1-2 degrees of records.
This is not very good news for an already drought stricken region
where forecasted warm temperatures and low afternoon relative
humidities will continue to produce a fire weather danger.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 56 80 55 / 20 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 53 76 54 / 30 20 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 77 52 77 53 / 20 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 48 72 47 / 30 30 0 0