Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 311045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
344 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...Areas of fog persist this morning across portions of
northwest Montana and north central Idaho. Fog is expected to lift
sooner than yesterday however as a weak wave of energy passes
through the flow. Light snow is expected today, mainly along the
Continental Divide, which could cause some locally slick spots
over Marias Pass. Flurries are possible across much of the rest of
northwest Montana and even into north central Idaho, but
accumulations are not expected.

A more significant wave is expected beginning mid day Sunday and
lasting in to Monday. The best snow accumulations are expected in
the mountains and over the mountain passes, where amounts between
3 to 8 inches are possible, causing a period of slick roads for
travel. A push of warmer air is expected to accompany this system,
which will cause many valleys to transition from snow to rain
through the day Sunday. Valleys of northwest Montana will be the
last to realize this approaching warm air, and thus could see a
period of accumulating snow before transitioning over.

Monday and Tuesday...The passage of another weather system
continues to be on tap for this period. Mountain passes will see
the highest impact while valleys will experience rain or a mixture
of rain and snow. Colder air may push west across Marias Pass on
US-2 Tuesday which could cause any rain/snow mixture to freeze,
causing slick road surfaces.

Showers are expected Wednesday while a short amplitude ridge builds
on Thursday. Possible fog and black ice will be the main impacts
during this time period.

Southwest flow is expected to bring milder, wetter conditions and
higher snow levels by next weekend. Confidence is good as weather
models continue to show this solution.


.AVIATION...Fog and low stratus continues across much of northwest
Montana and north central Idaho this morning, including airfield
KGPI. Fog/stratus is expected to improve this morning however as
an approaching weather system and even some light northeast winds
(mainly across northwest Montana) improves mixing. Some light
snow is possible with this approaching wave, which will continue
to cause the higher terrain to be obscured through much of the day
today. The best chances for snow will exist along the Continental
Divide, although KGPI could see a period of flurries this



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