Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
FXUS65 KMSO 142033
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2014
...Active afternoon and evening with rain/snow/lightning/wind...
...Another snow producing weather system for Monday...
.DISCUSSION...Snow will continue to fall this afternoon over
mountain passes along the ID/MT border, as well for some lower
elevation areas in northwest Montana. Snow could become heavy at
times over Lookout and Lolo passes this evening as another slug of
moisture enters the region from the west. Local high resolution
models are indicating that a potential line of showers will develop
along the border and move southeast through west-central Montana
this evening. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow and rain
will accompany this line as well as gusty winds, and believe it
or not: a few lightning strikes are possible as well. This storm
system will be quick moving and should be out of the region by
tomorrow morning. Accumulating snow on mountain passes is expected
this evening, so winter weather advisories will remain in place.
High pressure will return for Saturday, but the next impacting
weather system will pass through the region from Sunday through
Tuesday morning. Precipitation will begin in northwest Montana on
Sunday. The rest of north central Idaho and western Montana will
have breezy winds and warmer temperatures ahead of the expected
weather system. This upcoming weather system has a good moisture
feed and has the potential for cooler air and lower snow levels.
Confidence is highest for mountains and mountain passes to
accumulate 6 to 10 inches of snow by late Monday. Valley and
lowers elevations (mainly below 3500 feet) are not as certain but
the ECMWF has had strong consistency with each model run to
increase the confidence of snow at lower elevations. This
particular weather model keeps precipitation falling longer than
other model solutions, so there is concern that widespread low
elevation snow will occur from midday Monday through Monday night.
Any potential amounts are still fairly uncertain, but best chances
for accumulations will be throughout the Butte/Blackfoot region.
Snow showers will linger through Tuesday but high pressure will then
return by late in the day. There is agreement that we are entering
into an active weather pattern with weather systems every few days.
The next storm in the line up will have low elevation rain/snow and
additional mountain snow accumulation. It is projected to arrive on
.AVIATION...Rain showers possibly mixed with some snow will
continue this afternoon for KGPI and KMSO. Local high resolution
models indicate that an enhanced line of showers will develop and
move through KGPI, creating gusty winds with moderate to heavy
rain/snow showers around 15/0100Z. This line is also anticipated to
impact KMSO as well around 15/0200Z. Winds could gust as high as
25 to 30 knots, with the possibility of an isolated lightning
strike or two as the line pushes through. Otherwise, occasional
lowering of ceilings and mountain obscurations can be expected
through the night.
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT Saturday for Lolo Pass IN
THE Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT Saturday for I-90 Lookout
Pass to Haugan IN THE Lower Clark Fork Region.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT Saturday for Marias Pass
IN THE West Glacier Region.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM PDT Saturday for Lolo Pass IN
THE Southern Clearwater Mountains.
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