Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 292035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
235 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers have spread across most of western
Montana and north central Idaho this afternoon. The expectation is that
these on-and-off showers will continue, with the added threat of
lightning strikes occurring with isolated storm cells. Those who
are outside, or who plan to be outside today, should prepare for
blustery winds, periodic thunderstorms, and rain showers through sunset
or slightly after.

Snow levels will begin to lower tonight into Monday as this system
exits east of the Divide. In doing so, showers will wrap back
around and along the spine of the Divide, bringing high elevation
snowfall to mountain peaks above 6500 feet. A few inches of
accumulation in the terrain around Glacier National Park should be
expected, as well as mountain chains that extend south through
the Bob Marshall Wilderness. By Tuesday, showers will be on their
way out of the region as the western half of the United States
begins the warm and dry spell.

Forecast models continue to be in really good agreement from
Wednesday through next weekend building and keeping a high
pressure ridge established across the western United States. Thus
forecast confidence in the extended is atypically high. Building
high pressure will quickly move temperatures from near normal
early this week to well above normal by the weekend. In some
cases, temperatures may eclipse the 90 degree mark for the first
time of the season! And while record breaking heat is not yet
anticipated, the affects of this seemingly rapid warm up on human
comfort may be further exacerbated by the prolonged period of
unseasonably cool conditions we have just experienced. So it might
be wise to start thinking about those things you might wish to
have accomplished to be ready for summertime temperatures!


.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers with embedded thunder have
begun to spread across most of western Montana and north central
Idaho. All terminals will have the chance at seeing an isolated
thunderstorm affect them, starting from 29/2000Z and lasting
through 30/0400Z. KBTM may last slightly longer, with storm
potential existing beyond sunset for a few additional hours. That
being said, lightning will be the most common threat to aviation
operations during this time for all areas, with gusty outflow
winds also likely. In addition, strong upper level winds (above
30KFT) will be present due to a strong jet crossing the Northern



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