Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 230931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
331 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...The main changes to the near term forecast last
night were minor changes to the chance for rain over northwest
Montana. Satellite shows some mid and low level moisture in the
form of clouds over the area, winds will turn northwesterly, and
some light precipitation is expected. Rain or snow will be more
consistent in the mountains where upslope flow during the day will
enhance the necessary lift to generate precipitation.

Radar is also indicating a very small area of rain over the north
end of Flathead Lake this morning. This is mainly being driven by
the cooler air over the warmer lake water. Winds are light enough
to allow weak convection to from over the lake, and a small
shower is expected to wander around mainly the north end of the
lake through this morning.

A weak ridge then starts to build over the region tonight through
Monday, with a few brief disturbances slipping through ridge.
Overall the first part of the week should be very pleasant.

An upper level ridge will be positioned over central Washington
and Oregon by Wednesday. This pattern will keep us near seasonal
highs which are in the 60s. As this ridge shifts eastward,
afternoon temperatures will moderate into the 70s for some places
by next Friday which will make for a very beautiful end to the
week. There is indication that this nice pattern will not last
much into October


.AVIATION...The Northern Rockies will be influenced by an upper
level trough today which will result in a mixture of clouds and
sun with a few showers. The biggest impact to general aviation are
low clouds at KBTM which are expected to improve by 23/1700Z or
sooner. Fog has developed in a few valleys across central Idaho
but is expected to burn off 23/1800Z. With a weak pressure
gradient over the region, local afternoon and evening winds will
generally be light or less than 10 knots. High pressure continues
to bring stable conditions on Sunday.



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