Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 261120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



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