Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 281733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Very mild and warm today with southerly winds and ridging aloft.
While there is quite a bit of cirrus, it will probably be thin
enough to allow plenty of sunshine, along with slightly warmer
850 mb temps than yesterday. Highs today should easily reach the
lower 80s, with near record warmth expected. Record maxes today
are 85 in Norfolk, NE in 1937, 84 in Omaha in 1927, and and 84 in
Lincoln in 1922. Currently have forecast highs about 1 degree shy
of this later this afternoon. It will also be a breezy day with
southerly winds at 15-30 mph. Wind gusts from the RAP/HRRR models
would even be slightly higher along/south of I80. not windy enough
for an advisory though.

A cool front begins to settle into the forecast area tonight, then
through the area on Saturday. This will allow 60s to settle into
northern portions of the forecast area, but areas along/south of
I80 should still reach the upper 70s, well above normal. There
could also be a few showers mainly north of the area, but they
could brush the NE/SD border region.

Cool high pressure settles over the area for Sunday. Highs should
be in the lower 60s, just a degree or two above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Southerly flow quickly returns to the area Monday as the high
pressure shifts to the east. This allows for a very mild Halloween
with highs again reaching 75 to 80 degrees, which should make for
very happy trick or treaters. Another weak front moves in Monday
night which brings highs back into the 60s for the remainder of
the forecast.

There is a weak wave moving through the area which could bring a
few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to the region Tuesday
night as a reinforcing cool front moves in. There is some question
whether the front may still be in the area for Wednesday afternoon
and evening along/south of I80. New 00z GFS and ECMWF models now
suggest this wave would move far enough away from the area by
then, which could result in a much drier forecast for Wednesday
night and Thursday, thus May be able to remove Pops for those
periods with the next update if those trends hold true.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with scattered
to broken cirrus at 25kft and unrestricted visibility. Gusty
southwesterly winds this afternoon will decrease rapidly at
sunset, becoming light and variable overnight and into Saturday




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