Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND SKY COVER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE.

STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND THEN
SCATTER...LEADING TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH THE NAM
MOS TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GFS MOS. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF SUN...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE. MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS WITH DRIZZLE WORDING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY. THIS RISK COULD BECOME HIGH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD GET INTO THE LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT REGION. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SUN COULD COME OUT FOR A
PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND IF THE LOW
REMAINS FURTHER EAST.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SO EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...WHILE A WEAK COASTAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE/S AND GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BACK E/ESE
TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR THIS MORNING AND
BECOME SCT-BKN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROB OF BKN CIGS IN
AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS.

MVFR CONDS LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN REDUCING VSBY TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO ADD VSBY RESTRICTION AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN MORNING...IMPROVE TO VFR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW PROB OF TSTM.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY AS SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT.

WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO BUILD. SEAS WILL
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...AND REACH SCA
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUESDAY.

INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC






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