Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KOKX 190007 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
707 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Low pressure continues to move farther offshore and gradually
strengthens through tonight. Meanwhile weak high pressure will
build from the west tonight into Thursday, and settle overhead
Thursday night into early Friday. A weakening frontal system will
approach Friday night into Saturday, and then dissipate.
Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest from
Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high builds
into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to approach
Monday night into Tuesday.


A northern stream shortwave will pass through tonight, with
sufficient forcing to cause some spotty light rain or drizzle
(freezing rain or drizzle where temps are at or below 32).
Confidence in freezing drizzle is too low at this point to issue
an SPS (not sure of timing of precipitation with temperatures
falling too/below freezing across the interior). However, best
forcing looks like it will miss NE NJ/NYC zones, so went with a
dry forecast there.

There should be some patchy fog across most of the area as well,
this also could freeze in areas falling to/below freezing.

Cloudy conditions and elevated winds on the backside of the
departing low will inhibit stronger radiational cooling, with low
temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s expected to be around
10-15 degrees above climatological normals.


With the low pressure moving farther offshore and high pressure
building in, flow will gradually turn more northwesterly advecting
drier air into the area and allowing the stratus to finally
erode. Sunny conditions are expected by late morning, with subtle
downslope flow aiding in temperatures rising into the mid 40s to
lower 50s, around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Apart
from any light drizzle in the morning, the remainder of the day
should be dry.


Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes
region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area
Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be
light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low
to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.

A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging
overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through
the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday
night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next
week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the
area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1
to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into
Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by
the middle of next week.

Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above


High pressure works in from the west.

The theme will be gradual improvement through tonight as widespread
MVFR cigs early this evening lift to VFR overnight. Fog possible
late tonight outside of the city terminals. N-NW winds under 10 kt

For Thursday, VFR with NW winds under 10 KT.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving
flight categories.

.Thursday night-Friday...VFR.
.Friday night...Chance of MVFR or lower in -RA.
.Saturday-Saturday night...VFR.
.Sunday...Chance of MVFR of lower in -RA, with best chance at
CT/Long Island Terminals.
.Monday...Chance of IFR with heavy rain and strong E-NE winds.


Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Increasing northerly-northwesterly flow between the departing
surface low and building high pressure will maintain 5+ ft seas on
the ocean waters through the night. Gusts to 25kt are expected
tonight, but will gradually decrease by morning with seas slowly
subsiding by Thursday evening.

Below small craft advisory conditions Friday through early Sunday.
Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the
approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean
Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday
night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up.


As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area
Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant
rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-


HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.