Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 021133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY. WITH WEAK 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND OPENING
500 HPA CUTOFF LOW STAYING WELL TO THE SE...SO NO FORCING
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...DRY FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. TO GET THERE THOUGH...NEED FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE
OF URBAN AREAS TO BURN OFF. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND 13Z.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT - WHICH HAVE AN SPS
OUT THROUGH 12Z TO ADDRESS THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG THERE.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMPS AROUND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND93 IN THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP/KGON WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN.

S WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT



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