Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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589
FXUS61 KOKX 211104
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
604 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area this morning, then drifts
offshore this afternoon and evening. A weak cold dissipates as
it approaches tonight into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure
remains near the region Thursday and Friday. A frontal system
approaches Friday night and Saturday, followed by high pressure
for the end of the weekend and the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quiet weather is expected during the day as an upper ridge
slides across the area before shifting offshore tonight. Clear
skies and generally light winds have allowed temperatures to
fall into the 20s across outlying areas early this morning.
These should recover quickly after sunrise, rising to around 40
by mid morning.

At the same time, high clouds will begin to increase from west
to east across the region in advance of a frontal system
approaching from the Midwest. In addition, winds will shift to
the S-SE this afternoon. This will help keep highs in the mid to
upper 40s, several degrees colder than the past few days, but
still slightly above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds will lower and thicken tonight in advance of the approaching
warm front. With limited moisture and the best upper level support
remaining well north of the area, only light rain is expected with
the warm frontal passage overnight into early Wednesday
morning. The best chance for any precipitation continues to be
across the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of Connecticut.

Clouds will linger through Wednesday morning as the front is slow to
move away from the area before at least partially clearing Wednesday
afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures on Wednesday
should rise into the upper 50s from NYC north and west, with low
to mid 50s across Long Island and coastal Connecticut. A few 60
degree readings are possible across the immediate New York City
metro area. Given temperature trends over the past several days,
sided with the warmer temperature guidance throughout the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build back into the region Wednesday night with
dry conditions and temperatures well above normal as lows only fall
into the upper 30s and 40s.

The warm unseasonable temperatures continue into Thursday as
westerly flow continues to pump warm air into the region. Will
continue to trend warmer than MOS and model consensus blends which
will likely be too cool on Thursday. Highs for Thursday will likely
approach 70 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ and lower to middle
60s across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT. Coastal CT and
Long Island will struggle to get out of the 50s with a cooler flow
off the waters. See Climate section for record highs on Thursday
(Feb 23rd).

Unsettled weather, and cooler but still above normal temperatures
return Thursday night through Saturday as the next low pressure
system tracks through the Great Lakes region and its associated
frontal boundary move across our region. Forecast models seem to
differ on the timing of each frontal system, so do not think this
entire period will be wet. The best chance of precipitation occurs
Saturday into Saturday night with the main cold frontal passage.
Will follow previous forecast and collaboration with neighboring
offices and carry likely pops for this time frame.

Drier weather returns for Sunday and Monday as high pressure returns
to the region. This will also bring the return for more seasonable
temperatures as highs will only reach the 40s both days.

The next chance of precipitation will be on Tuesday as the next
upper level shortwave approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the region, moves off the northeast coast late in
the day. A weak cold front dissipated as it approaches the
region late tonight into Wednesday.

VFR through at least 06z. MVFR ceilings possible in light
rain...mainly across northern terminals late tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

Northeast flow less than 10 KT...light and variable outside of the
NYC metro terminals...veers to southeast during the mid to late
morning, then becomes s/se during the afternoon.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of winds veering from left to right of 130
magnetic may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. Winds expected to be less than
10kt.

KLGA TAF Comments: NE winds under 10 kt likely through morning push.
Timing of winds veering from left to right of 130 magnetic may be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Winds expected to be less than 10kt.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of winds veering from left to right of 130
magnetic may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. Winds expected to be less than
10kt.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of clouds.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday...MVFR possible early in the morning in light
rain...mainly across northern terminals. Otherwise...VFR.
.Thursday-Friday...MVFR, possibly lower, in stratus and fog.
.Saturday...MVFR likely with showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions are on tap through much of the period as high
pressure builds offshore this afternoon and evening. This will
result in winds generally 15 kt or less through at least
Wednesday.

A weak pressure gradient over the area waters Wednesday night
through Friday will result in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be Saturday as the next low
pressure and associated frontal system approaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the
upcoming week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for Thursday February 23,
2017

Central Park........70 (1985)
LaGuardia...........66 (1985)
Kennedy.............62 (1990)
Islip...............61 (2012)
Newark..............68 (1985)
Bridgeport..........60 (2012)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/BC
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...FEB/BC
HYDROLOGY...FEB/BC
CLIMATE...



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