Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








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