Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
406 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF
DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT
DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY.
EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER
LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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