Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 272145 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
545 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
545pm update...have removed pops from all locations except the
southern ridges. Activity continues to fire along the eastern
slopes, mainly over West Virginia and Western Maryland. The lack
of activity is due to an increase in subsidence under a strengthen
eastern ridge and also very warm air aloft, which is providing a
cap on the atmosphere. The activity over the eastern slopes looks
to be a localized effect, thanks to low level moisture
convergence. Observations to the west of the ridges are showing a
west-southwesterly wind, while observations to the east are
indicating a south-southeasterly flow. The combination of these
two are forcing air up the slopes, overcoming the overall
downward motion of the atmosphere.

Previous discussion...

Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s
and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower
levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy
fog looks minimal.

Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up
further over the forecast area. With no meaningful
shortwaves/triggers progged or foreseen, convective activity will
again be largely capped off. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any isolated showers/storms that do pop up should quickly
dissipate Saturday evening as conditions stabilize.

A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region
Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime
Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front should cross the
region Thursday into Friday, with models still differing on how
quickly the front will approach the area. Wednesday appears to be
the warmest day in the period, although the entire extended
forecast will continue to have above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist this afternoon, but an isolated
shower or storm is possible with a weak crossing disturbance. With
showers currently developing along the ridges, have included VCTS
for LBE and MGW considering their proximity. For overnight fog
potential, have decided to go with a persistence forecast from
last night, considering there is little change in the airmass. DUJ
is the only terminal that had any extended period of restrictions
early this morning, so have gone with a MVFR mention for fog there
overnight and VFR conditions elsewhere.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend. Conditions should be dry Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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