Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 011134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ESSENTIALLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION AS THE BASE
OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM
MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE
AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS WERE CARRIED
ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPIC SUPPORT WITH SLIGHT
NUMBERS UNDER THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO.

WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY
DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...DIURNALLY
SUPPORTED PRECIP CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON FRIDAY. HAVE THUS RAISED POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTING...ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT DRY AND
WARM WEATHER UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MOST SITES AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND
KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WIND WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
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