Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHT. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY. WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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