Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 041004
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE BASED ON OBS
AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN
THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE
OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD
KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON
FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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