Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 280739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND
CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU OUT TOWARD READING
AND THE DC AREA WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THRU. THIS MAY BRIEFLY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL
START TO THE DAY...JUST LIKE IT HAS BEEN EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

LEFTOVER HI-BASED STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE MID MORNING IN CONCERT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS OF
A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS OWING TO STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. THE STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE LATE
AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND NWLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
TONIGHT MAY WIND UP BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT PROBABLY
ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR FORECASTING MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT AS WAS DONE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT, WHICH HAS WORKED
OUT WELL: GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
POCONOS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN PHILA AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD...BY IN LARGE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SMALL
CHC FOR AN TSTM MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN MOST PART OF THE CWA. CONFID
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND
90 ACROSS THE METRO AREAS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS A MENTION OF A SHOWER OR TSTM EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A UPPER VORT MAX WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS PA AND THEN NJ/DE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE METRO
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE
    IN RURAL AREAS. WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. S-SELY WINDS
WILL ENSUE ONCE A SEA-BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



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