Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES
BY NOON THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN ITS NORTHEAST TURN...NEARING
CAPE COD AT NOON TUESDAY AND THEN WEAKENING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AND PASS OVER
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MOISTURE/UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OCNL SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT 1 TO 2 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE. THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO THROW SOME SNOW INTO SERN AREAS TOWARD
00Z. AGAIN A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PCPN OVER THE SRN DELMARVA
OR EXTREME SE NJ MAY FALL/MIX WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE
FLAGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS GO INTO EFFECT AROUND NOON.
THE WATCHES WERE CHANGED TO WARNINGS (NORTH OF BERKS) AND ADVISORIES
(BERKS AND SOUTH). THE STARTING TIMES WERE LINED UP WITH THE OTHER
FLAGS FOR SIMPLICITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS IS MOVES FROM
OFF THE NC/VA COAST TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. STEADY/HVY SNOWS WILL
AFFECT MOSTLY THE ERN 2/3RD OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER SNOWS AND
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WRN/SWRN EDGES OF THE AREA. OUR SNOW TOTALS
ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE ONES ISSUED SUN AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
A FEW INCHES LOWER IF ANYTHING. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW MAY OR MAY
NOT  OCCUR ACROSS THE FARTHEST WESTERN WARNING AREAS(CARBON AND
LEHIGH)...BUT BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MAKE
THINGS LOOK WARNING-LIKE. PLENTY OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHEST TOTALS THRU 12Z NRN HALF OF NJ AND INTO EXTREME ERN
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***BLIZZARD COASTAL NEW JERSEY WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON***

500 MB: DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONIC CIRC NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUESDAY DEPARTS WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH
FORMS SEWD TO THE EAST COAST THU-FRI. THEREAFTER THE HUDSON BAY
VORTEX SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 MAV/MET FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
THE 00Z/26 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
05Z/26 WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS
WERE NOT USED FOR THE LONGER RANGE...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS HIGHER
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...BENT BACK MID LVL FRONT AT 700-600 MB WITH FGEN EXCESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES COASTAL CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ WILL BE WINDING
DOWN RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS BACKING TO NW. IDEAL
SNOW GROWTH REGION NEAR 650MB NNJ NEWD WITH 1-3"/HR EXPECTED EVEN
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. BUT...HOW FAR WEST
OF I 95 IS IT SNOWING TUESDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. USUALLY
WITH BANDING THERE ARE AREAS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN
WHAT YOU WOULD OTHERWISE CONSIDER A SNOWY ENVIRONMENT. THOSE AREAS
OF DRYING CAN SURPRISE. THIS MESO METEOROLOGY WE`RE NOT TOO GOOD
AT REALISTICALLY AND RELIABLY DETAILING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN
ADVANCE. LETS THINK OF LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA AND THE DELMARVA TUE MORNING THEN DRYING OUT. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW
OCCURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. ESTIMATING DRIFTS TO 4 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE IN EXPOSED REGIONS OF COASTAL NE NJ, WHERE SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS 18 INCHES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20 MPH. DRIFTING
SNOW CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NNJ

WEDNESDAY...MO/SUNNY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH.  DRIFTING SNOW
COASTAL NNJ.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
MAY BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR
NOW WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT ...MODEST AMOUNTS UNDER 2 INCHES
IN THIS CF SITUATION AND FOR NOW MAINLY N OF I 78.

LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED.

NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT MIGHT GET INTERESTING AGAIN?  IT DOES
NOT LOOK NECESSARILY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH THE SE EVOLUTION OF THE
POLAR VORTEX AND WHAT MIGHT DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING**

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE LATER
AS THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY GO VFR
FOR AWHILE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFID IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS IS LOW AND WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE NOR`EASTER WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE. WIDESPREAD LIFR WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COMMON. STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT AND INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MORNING SNOWFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
CONFINED MAINLY TO NJ FROM VCNTY KPHL-KACY LINE NORTHWARD AND THAT
SNOW WILL BE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMES VFR EVERYWHERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NW WIND GUSTS
25-30KT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR SCT OR BKN AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20 KT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WHEN CONDITIONS MAY LOWER
INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME. SW WIND THU AFTN SHIFT NW
FRI.


&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE FLAGS WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. STORM
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND GALES FOR DEL BAY AND
THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES. BEGINNING AND END TIMES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
OFF NEW JERSEY TO START THE DAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.  WINDS DMSHG IN THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER NW GALES DURING THE EVENING WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...AN SCA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BY LATE FRIDAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE NORTHEASTWARD
DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE CONVERTED TO
WARNINGS WITH THE 330 AM FCST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD MINOR WITH A
FEW AREAS OF LOW-END MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. THE TIDE
CYCLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO HAVE
FLOODING CONCERNS...THE GREATER THREAT BEING TONIGHTS MIDNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR PAZ060-101-102.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 349A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 349A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 349A
LONG TERM...DRAG 349A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 349A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 349A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...349A






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