Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 180826
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure forming near the New Jersey coast will intensify
eastward, to the south of Cape Cod today. High pressure then
builds across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday. Weak low pressure
will pass through the region this weekend, and then a much larger
and stronger system will impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning...LSR`s posted for ice. light freezing rain
and drizzle persists at or above 1000 feet in northern Monroe and
northern Sussex counties and even down into the region above 1800
feet in Carbon County. Otherwise patches of showers drizzle and
fog will be occuring in our forecast area. An isolated tstm was
moving fm ne MD into n De around 0710z. North to northeast wind.

Today...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers through early afternoon
(drizzle north as well) as a sharp trough aloft passes southeast
through the mid Atlantic states. Cool north but becoming milder
south during the afternoon as skies brighten a bit toward sunset.
North winds near and northwest of I-78 while a northwest wind
becomes gusty 20-25 MPH during the afternoon s NJ and Philly area
southward through the Delmarva. Max temps 5 to 10F warmer than
normal north and around 10F warmer than normal south.

Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/18 NAM/GFS mos guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clearing far south though it may remain mostly cloudy elsewhere.
Temps 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Northwest wind.

Confidence on temps radiating a bit is below average and the lows
may be forecast too low.

Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/18 NAM/GFS mos guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our warm and wet pd continues into the extendd. Thu looks to psbly
be the nicest day of the pd, with more sun than clouds and temps
around or n of 50 degrees in many areas with dry conds under high
pres.

The high will move ewd Thu night into Fri and wk low pres will
bring a shot of shwrs thru by Fri aftn. This shud be a relatively
quick shot from aftn into erly eve.

Then wk high pres will move back in for later Fri into Sat
bringing a return to dry wx.

By Sun, a large area of low pres will move out of the srn plains
twd the sern states and mid-Atlc. There are still some timing
diffs wrt the onset of rain. The GFS is slower movg the precip in
than the ECMWF. THe GFS would keep most of SUn dry, not bringing
rain in until the aftn, while the EC would bring rain in durg the
mrng, especially over srn areas. The CMC is more supportive of the
slwoer soln, so for now will just keep some low pops erly and
trned pops upward durg the aftn, but this is a lower than average
confidence fcst and Saturday certainly looks to be the better of
the two weekend days.

The aforementioned low will move to our sw on Mon and Mon is
likely to be the wettest day. The guid differs on where the
heaviest and steadiest rain may set up, but Mon could end up being
a washout, at least for portions of the area. By Tue, the low
shoulf be pulling away. The ECMWF ends the precip sooner, while
the GFS lingers it somewhat thru the day. However, pops shud at
least be decreasing from s to n, if not completely over.

Temps look to be much abv nrnl thru the pd, about 10 to 15
degrees. With the exception of the highest elevations of the
Poconos Mon mrng, all precip that falls durg this pd shud be plain
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This morning through 12z...IFR conditions with patches of LIFR in
stratus/fog/drizzle and scattered showers. A passing isolated TSTM
vcnty KILG around 0715z. Light north - northeast wind.

Today...IFR conditions at sunrise will gradually improve to MVFR
cigs during midday with vsby improving to VFR as north to northwest
winds gradually increase with northwest gusts vcnty KACY, KPHL,
KMIV and KILG of 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Scattered morning
showers/drizzle will end early afternoon.

Tonight...Probably VFR bkn-ovc cigs aoa 3500 ft though it may
scatter out at KILG and KMIV? Light northwest wind.

OUTLOOK...
Thu through Fri mrng...VFR. High pres. High confidence.

Fri aftn thru Fri night...Sub-VFR conds psbl in -RA. Mdt
confidence.

Sat through Sun. Mainly VFR. High confidence VFR Sat. Lower
confidence VFR Sun, especially s as RA is psbl.


&&

.MARINE...
Short period of SCA northwest wind headline anticipated to be
issued 330 am Wednesday for the S NJ and De coasts.


OUTLOOK...
Thu through Sun...Sub-SCA conds expected.

Sun night through Mon night...Easterly flow 20-30 KT. SCA
conds likely, with gale force winds possible on Mon, mainly on
the ocean waters.

Tue...Wind shud subside below SCA conds, but seas will remain
elevated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ055.
NJ...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NJZ001.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ430-431-452>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Nierenberg



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