Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 040901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. NUMERICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SE IDAHO TODAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A DEEP CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION SPREADS INTO THE
SRN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS
SE IDAHO...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
ARIZONA BORDER REGION. TEMPS COOL SOME FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED CUT OFF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO LIE TO OUR SOUTH WITH A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
OCCASIONALLY SNEAKING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS EXPECTING
SOME ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN NORTHWARDS. SATURDAY IS ALSO THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
OVERALL WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1/4 INCH AT VALLEY FLOORS AND
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET ACROSS OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST AMOUNTS FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

SOME MODEL VARIATIONS COME INTO PLAY REGARDING TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WANTING TO BE COOLER. LOOKS
LIKE THE DIFFERENCE IS EUROPEAN MODEL WANTS TO KEEP FLOW MORE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE GFS MODEL SHIFTS WINDS MORE FROM THE
SOUTH...THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING CONDITIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS
GRADUALLY SHIFT THE LOW OUT OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL CREATES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED WITH ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA WITH
IDAHO IN A RIDGE IN BETWEEN. 00Z EUROPEAN RUN TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE
GFS MODEL IN REGARDS TO KEEPING THE LOW CLOSED BUT NOW HAS A STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...SO WILL
FAVOR THE GFS WARMER TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WHILE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
UPPER DYNAMICS OF THE ECMWF. NP/HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TODAY.
SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY TO CLEAR UP BY EARLY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
KSUN LATER THIS EVENING OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. NP/HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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