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000
FXUS65 KPIH 251440
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
840 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE AXIS TRANSITIONING ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
THIS MORNING. TAIL OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
IDAHO THIS MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC AND SFC OBS PLACES ONGOING LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN IDAHO. TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP WEAK MENTION IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIFTEDS DROP BELOW
ZERO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHEAST CORNER AND SOUTH ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OVERALL MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAYS POP/WX/QPF GRIDS IN
LINE WITH LATEST NAM AND LOCAL WRF PROJECTIONS OTHERWISE KEPT
CHARACTER OF FCST THE SAME. MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVERALL ON SUNDAY AS DEEPER CONSOLIDATED TROUGH AXIS REACHES
PACIFIC COAST AND INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER EASTERN IDAHO. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING
TOWARD WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING INTO OUR
AREA TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE TAIL END OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FROM CITY OF ROCKS TO POCATELLO TO AROUND PALISADES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ABOUT THIS BUT IT`S ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 10
PERCENT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY APPEAR QUITE ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGS EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO. ONCE AGAIN THE
MODELS ARE STILL NOT AGREEING ON TIMING THIS THROUGH OUR PART OF
THE STATE...BUT GETTING CLOSER. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE OREGON BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...RANGING FROM
A DECENT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO AN ISOLATED STORM
AROUND BEAR LAKE. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AND
WITH THE SYSTEM ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...STRONGER
(NON-SEVERE) STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS TO LOOK OUT FOR
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40MPH...BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL. THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER ONCE
YOU GET AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE BELOW CLOUD BASE. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND TO
OUR NORTHEAST ON MEMORIAL DAY. WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR COME IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WE
CAN EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WIND ON MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ANY TYPE OF WIND IMPACT EVEN ON AREA LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MAY TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BUT COOLING DOWN AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ON MONDAY.

A SHOWERY AND COOL PATTERN IS STILL ON TAP FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK. NOT MUCH DETAIL CAN BE PULLED
OUT OF THE MODELS AT THIS POINT AS THIS SYSTEM IS SPLITTING AND
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES ARE HARD TO PICK OUT. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE DRIER WEATHER MOVE BACK IN BUT
IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE ENTIRE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.  KEYES

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TODAY WITH 10
TO 20 KNOT WINDS DURING DAYTIME HOURS.  DSH

FIRE WEATHER...HE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
BORDER.  AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER.  ON
SUNDAY A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AND MOVES INLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY MONDAY.  PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$