Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW AND MOVE IN SOME AIR
THAT HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SPREADING ALL OVER FOR SAT. SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS WENT FAIRLY LATE EVEN THIS THU NIGHT...HAVE KEPT IN
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SAME ISOLATED COVERAGE. LATE NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIKELY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. BY SUN NIGHT...ONLY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER HAS A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR COMING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL STRONGLY BETWEEN
SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN AFTERNOON...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG F. ON THE
OTHER HAND...OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
KEEP THE LOWS FAIRLY MILD UNTIL THE WINDS CALM ON SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT. AFTER THE NEAR TERM
TROUGH EXITS...EXPECT A FEW DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS IN A ZONAL AND
DRY FLOW. WESTERLY WIND MEANS NO SEVERE WARM UP...AND IT WILL NOT
BE UNTIL WED THAT TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGLY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STRONG TILT MEANS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SHEARING
APART...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE BY THU. THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY THE WETTER
SOLUTION FOR THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR NOW. THE
MAIN THING DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
THE ID-MT BORDER REGION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTN IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY IN THE MTNS. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW
TODAY...SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO IDAHO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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