Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 020933
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
333 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING
WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURES WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS
THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BUT STAYED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MODEL
SUGGEST. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAN TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER TREND
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH HAS SLOWED
ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION...AND THUS -TSRA IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KSUN...SO WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY THERE
FOR TODAY. ANY CIGS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE 03/12Z
ENDING PERIOD FOR THE NEW TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KBYI. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AS THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FARTHER EAST ON MON AFTERNOON AND THIS IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WIND...ABOVE 15KT...COULD DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF -TSRA ACTIVITY.

MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAY GENERATE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORM THERE.
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BECOMES SCATTERED FOR MON...AND NOT JUST THE
AFTERNOON BUT ALL DAY MON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUE AND WED
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NO LONGER HAVE
AN INFLUENCE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE UP SHARPLY FOR MON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY START AS DRY ON MON...BUT WILL BECOME A MIXTURE OF WET
AND DRY BY MON AFTERNOON. WIND WILL NOT GET GUSTY UNTIL AFTER THE
MOISTURE CHANGE OCCURS...SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MON...THE ONLY
CONCERN IS WILL COVERAGE REACH THE 25 PERCENT MARK PRIOR TO
NOON...SO THE EARLIER PART OF THE WATCH MAY NOT BE PART OF ANY
WARNING ISSUED LATER TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE
ONCOMING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO COORDINATE WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
ON CRITICAL FUEL AREAS AND ANY CHANGES...SO WILL LEAVE WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW.

MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$



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