Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM WYOMING.
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM IDAHO FALLS. NAM
AND HRRR SUGGEST FURTHER RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER PRETTY HEAVILY WITH RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO COLORADO TONIGHT
AND INTO WYOMING TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE MAY
FINALLY SEE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING...A
TREND MORE FAVORED BY THE NAM THAN THE GFS...AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS A
WETTER PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY
NIGHT. NAM PRODUCES AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE WITH TO SHOW A RETURN TO WET
WEATHER WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING MAY FINALLY TAKE HOLD AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORKING THROUGH EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND UPPER
LOW INTO SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN AREAS COULD DRY
OUT EARLY BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TOWARD
SUNRISE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
KEEP EAST IDAHO UNDER THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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