Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 190926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
226 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night.
Warnings and Advisories in mountains remain in effect today as
cold front moves through the state. Brunt of the snow should be in
the eastern highlands and central mountains with an additional 2
to 4 inches of snow mainly above 6500 feet. Snow levels will
gradually drop to around 5000 feet by this evening but
precipiation should be tapering off later this afternoon. AFter a
brief break another very wet Pacific system will affect southeast
Idaho Monday through Tuesday. Snow levels will start out Monday at
around 5000 feet then rise to around 7000 feet or above by Monday
night. 1 to 2 feet of snow are possible in the central mountains
mainly above 6500 feet once again with 6 to 12 inches in the
eastern highlands. Elevations below 6000 feet again should be in
mainly rain throughout the next storm system. Warnings and
advisories may be necessary with this storm as well. The cold
front with that system moves through Tuesday and snow levels drop
to valley floors Tuesday night after most precipiation has pushed
east. Breezy to windy conditions are possible throughout the short
term with the multiple systems affecting the region.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
appeared to move closer toward a compromise solution this morning as
a trough drops south along the Canadian coast Wednesday reinforcing
a trough across the NW states Thursday into Friday followed by a
drier and cooler northerly flow gradually settling over the region
late Saturday into Sunday. There are still some differences in the
details and thus have done nothing more than nudge the forecast a
little drier next weekend, otherwise a slight chance/chance mention
of precipitation can be found each day throughout the extended.

.AVIATION...A split upper trough was working through the WRN states
early this morning with SRN Idaho falling under the influence of the
NRN branch which was being invigorated by the influx of an ejecting
short-wave shearing ENE into/through Oregon. The interaction of this
upper wave and associated jet along with a deep moist southerly flow
was producing an enhanced band of precipitation across the Snake
River Plain. Numerical models show this enhanced band gradually
shifting east into the Wyoming border region by mid-morning with
scattered showers lingering across the region throughout the day
gradually tapering off through the night as the trough is replaced
by a flat moist upper ridge. Will likely see at least MVFR CIGS
under the enhanced precip band this morning with some improvement at
the Snake Plain/KSUN terminals this afternoon and KDIJ by late
afternoon. The models are showing a second disturbance sweeping
through the NW states late tonight which may bring lower CIGS to
KSUN late tonight. Huston



Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ018-

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ023-


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