Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 271939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
539 AM ChST Tue Mar 28 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...A rather quiet weather regime is in store
over the Marianas with most of the rainfall and thunder remaining
to the south. There are plenty of high and some mid level clouds,
but mainly dry weather is expected for the next couple of days.


All of the guidance is in agreement with dry air aloft over the
Marianas, so any moisture is at the lowest levels and fairly
limited. The more abundant moisture is further south, where there
are showers and even a few thunderstorms.

A shear line will approach on Wednesday and wind and seas will
increase and cloud cover will be on the uptick as well. However,
precip chances will remain low. An isolated shower is possible
but not much more.


Wind will increase to around 25 kt with the approach of a shear
line Wednesday into Thursday. Seas will increase to 7 to 10 feet.
A Small Craft Advisory looks likely, and a High Surf Advisory is
possible. Wind and seas will decrease by Friday.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough is beginning to pull away from Pohnpei, however
scattered showers will linger in the area through tonight. An area
of converging trade winds has moved south of Majuro, but still
lies over Kosrae. While the weather will dry out a bit for Pohnpei
on Wednesday, there will not be much change in the forecast period
for Kosrae and Majuro.

Trade-wind waves and swell will maintain hazardous surf along east
facing reefs of Kosrae for at least the next few days. While the
surf is below high surf advisory criteria at Majuro, both Kosrae
and Majuro could see some minor inundation on east facing shores
as the surf will combine with king tides through Wednesday
afternoon at Majuro and and through Thursday at Kosrae.


.Western Micronesia...
The trade-wind disturbance departing Pohnpei is heading toward
Chuuk. Within the next few hours scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will begin there and could last through Wednesday
night, then a drying trend will commence. This disturbance should
largely pass south of Yap, with perhaps a few stray thunderstorms,
however it will affect Koror mainly on Thursday and Friday.

Little change in sea heights is expected at Chuuk the next 5 days.
Seas will rise 1 or 2 feet at Koror and Yap as the disturbance
approaches. They should then likewise fall 1 or 2 feet as it


Marianas Waters...None.



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