Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 202048
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
648 AM CHST MON APR 21 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE MARIANAS. DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE MARIANAS THOUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW NEAR KOSRAE WILL MOVE WESTWARD. MODELS SHOW THIS
CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS NOT TOO HIGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL
THAT IS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COVERING MUCH OF KOSRAE
STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CONVERGING TRADE WINDS OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAJURO THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TUESDAY. A CIRCULATION ON THE
EASTERN END OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
KOSRAE NEAR 3N163E. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE BULK OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION NEAR
KOSRAE SHOULD NEAR POHNPEI TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE STATE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT POHNPEI AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS WERE
IMPLEMENTED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE VERY DRY DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED EXTREMELY WELL IN 00Z AND
12Z SOUNDINGS AT POHNPEI WILL MOVE OVER CHUUK TODAY. AS A
RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER WEST...TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 98W AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY FROM YAP STATE AND PALAU. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED
CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF 10N SO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AT
KOROR WILL BOOST ISLAND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE
FAIRLY DRY WEATHER OVER PALAU THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS





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