Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300707 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
507 PM CHST SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AND VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
ISLAND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER GUAM. SEAS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
AT THE RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG BUOYS...OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5 AND 7
FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY ADDING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS ON GUAM THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS NORTH
SWELL HAS AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF AROUND 14 SECONDS AND IS STILL
REACHING A HEIGHT OF OVER 6 FEET AT TIMES. SWELL SHOULD FINALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT BUOYS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
POHNPEI KOSRAE AND MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CIRCULATION
FORMING NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEY
MOVE THE FEATURE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL BRING THE FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO MAJURO BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR TO STAY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI STATES LATER ON MONDAY...ALBEIT TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.

SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A NOMINAL STATE BY MONDAY NIGHT
AS SOUTH AND NORTH SWELL SUBSIDE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CHUUK STATE. A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF
CHUUK WATERS IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. RIDGING WILL AID IN KEEPING A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
OVER CHUUK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MONSOON-RELATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK. CONVERGING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PALAU AND YAP THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT YAP THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHIFTING THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KOROR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS



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