Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 012104
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
704 AM CHST THU OCT 2 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MARIANAS. MONSOON TROUGH HEADS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM PHANFONE TO
LINK UP WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR
KOSRAE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONVERGING SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE WITH SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE IN KEEPING THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SCATTERED ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN
PHANFONE AND THE DISTURBANCE WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... THEN WEATHER DETERIORATES ONCE AGAIN AS THE KOSRAE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. MODELS GENERALLY TRACK THE DISTURBANCE
NORTH OF SAIPAN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ASSUME
THE DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND HAVE CAPPED WIND
SPEEDS DURING THE TIME OF PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE IN THE 20 TO
25-KNOT RANGE. IF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS...WIND GRIDS MAY HAVE TO BE BEEFED UP FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MARIANAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. PRIMARY SOUTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUE TO VERIFY IN THE VICINITY OF 6 FEET WITH A 10-SECOND
PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST
-FACING REEFS. STILL EXPECT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SURF TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FOR MAJURO...BETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER THE RALIK CHAIN CLOSER
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST EAST
OF KOSRAE...WHILE CALMER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ALONG THE RATAK
CHAIN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG-TERM
ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
GFS...IN PARTICULAR...PROGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO REACH THE
MARSHALLS FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...MOVING WEST ACROSS KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR KOSRAE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. THE JTWC HAS OPENED 90W INVEST ON THIS DISTURBANCE...
WHICH IS CENTERED EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 6N165E. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON KOSRAE.
THIS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON KOSRAE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 90W
TRACKS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. 12Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LIGHTER WINDS ARE SEEN WEST OF
THE CENTER ACROSS KOSRAE STATE. MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE RAINFALL...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AND GENERATING CHOPPIER
SEAS ACROSS THE STATE. 90W WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE POHNPEI FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 90W HAS ALREADY
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK LIES IN THE AREA OF FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN THE BROAD MONSOON
PATTERN SOUTH OF TYPHOON PHANFONE AND JTWC INVEST AREA 90W NEAR
KOSRAE. PLEASANT WEATHER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS THERE. MODELS TRACK 90W TOWARD THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 90W WOULD THEN PASS
NORTH OF CHUUK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE MONSOON STRENGTHENS ACROSS CHUUK STATE IN
RESPONSE TO 90W.

FOR KOROR AND YAP...A WET MONSOON PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS MORNING BUT IR
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP WEST OF YAP AND NORTH OF KOROR.
THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS MORNING
AFTER THE BRIEF OVERNIGHT LULL. THE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WELL SOUTH OF PHANFONE...BEING
REINVIGORATED LATER IN THE WEEKEND BY THE NEXT TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR KOSRAE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
JUST HOW EXACTLY 90W WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF 90W BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR KOROR AND YAP IS LOW.

ASCAT SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS YAP
STATE AND 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS PALAU. MODELS KEEP THESE WINDS
IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...MONSOON SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD. SWELL WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10
FEET TODAY ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. WAVE MODEL SHOWS
THIS SWELL SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND...BUT SURF WILL HOVER AT OR
JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEK. A BUILDING
NORTH SWELL WILL BE ARRIVING SUNDAY OR MONDAY FROM THE DISTANT
TYPHOON PHANFONE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT





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