


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
347 FXUS66 KPQR 140925 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 225 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect sunny skies across the area with morning marine stratus/fog along the coast. Temperatures drop slightly on today, but still remain warm and dry. A Heat Advisory has been issued for some interior valley locations from Tuesday to Wednesday, as afternoon temperatures between 90 to 100 degrees and low temperatures between 65 and 70 degrees. Uncertainty increases late week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday Night...A brief break from the hot conditions today with closer to normal but still above average temperatures expected. The ridge over the northeast Pacific will shift slightly west, reducing it`s influence on the PacNW briefly as a short wave trough drops southeast from central British Columbia toward Washington and northern Idaho. The trough axis will extend southwest into Oregon, bringing westerly flow aloft and a drop in 850 mb temperatures into the 15-18 C range. This will translate to high temperatures this afternoon around 8-12 degrees cooler for most locations generally low to mid 80s around the Portland/Vancouver Metro to upper 80s in the southern Willamette Valley. Coastal temperatures drop a few degrees topping out in the low to mid 60s. North/northwest winds will again increase during the afternoon as surface high pressure offshore and low pressure east of the Cascades increases the pressure gradient. Expect wind gusts up to 15-20 mph through inland valleys, 25-35 mph through the Columbia River Gorge, and gusts up to 25 mph will be possible along the central Oregon coast. Conditions heat back up for Tuesday and Wednesday as the short wave trough moves east and 500 mb heights rebound. The high over the northeast Pacific will broaden, extending eastward back into the PacNW. 850 mb temperatures increase on Tuesday to around 18-20 C and on Wednesday to 20-23 C. This will lead to temps in the low to mid 90s inland on Tuesday and mid to upper 90s with a few triple digits possible on Wednesday. Temperatures along the coast expected to top out in the mid 60s to mid 70s both days. Probabilities for reaching 100 on Tuesday are minimal, topping out around 10% across the central and southern Willamette Valley. Probabilities are much higher on Wednesday at 30-70%. On top of the hot conditions during the day, overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are expected to remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70, giving little reprieve from the heat. Probabilities for inland locations to remain at 65 or above are 40-70%. Given the forecast temperatures and the potential for even warmer temperatures, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Portland/Vancouver Metro, Willamette Valley, Lower Columbia and Cowlitz Valleys, and the Columbia River Gorge from noon Tuesday through 10 pm Wednesday. -Batz .LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday...Model agreement remains poor as we enter the latter half of the week and into next weekend with a general trend back toward average temperatures, however, there is a good amount of uncertainty. Thursday is forecast to remain warm with highs in the low 90s throughout the inland valleys. However, there is a large spread between the 10-90th percentiles, generally mid 80s to upper 90s. If temperatures trend toward the warmer end, heat headlines may need to be extended through Thursday. Cluster analysis continues to lean towards a series of weak troughs traversing the area which would help keep temperatures at least closer to average foe mid July in the low 80s inland by the weekend. Moisture associated with these disturbances looks meager at best and the dry conditions are likely to persist. -Batz && .AVIATION...High pressure maintains VFR conditions with clear skies inland and LIFR/IFR marine stratus and fog along the coast. Between 14-17z Mon, guidance suggests a 15-30% chance for MVFR stratus developing around the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, including KPDX, KTTD, and KHIO. Any morning stratus inland should scatter out by 17-19z Mon as daytime heating progresses. VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies prevail inland through the rest of the TAF period. A shortwave trough will also move over the region Monday, allowing marine stratus along the coast to lift to more IFR/MVFR thresholds by 18-21z Mon, possibly clearing for a few hours before stratus settles back in. No precipitation is expected with this shortwave. Expect breezy northerly to northwesterly winds across the area with gusts up to 25-30 kt along the coast and 20-25 kt inland, strongest in the afternoon. PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. Guidance suggests a 15-30% chance for MVFR CIGs between 14-17z Mon. Stratus will be difficult to form given the overall drier air mass, so if it does form it would be short-lived. Light northwesterly winds under 10 kt increasing after 21z Monday with gusts up to 20 kt. -Alviz/HEC && .MARINE...Upwelling along the coastline is producing low cloud cover and fog in the inner waters and the Columbia River Bar. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through this morning. A broad area of high pressure over the Pacific will continue through the week. A weak disturbance will move over the region this afternoon and evening, which will briefly break down the persistent thermal trough inland. Will see cooler temperatures, decreasing northwesterly flow, and building seas. Winds remain elevated through early this morning before easing, and a fresh northwesterly swell moves in. Seas will rise to 7-10 ft at 9-10 seconds by this evening. The Small Craft Advisory currently in effect for winds will transition to a wave based advisory late today, lasting into early Tuesday. A thermal trough rebuilds inland Tuesday into midweek, which combined with the high pressure over the Pacific will bring the return of increased north winds. -HEC/Muessle && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ108>122. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ204>207-209-210. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210- 251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland