Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
FXUS66 KPQR 262143
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
243 PM PDT Thu May 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow with threat of light showers will continue
today into Sunday, with highest chance of showers being on Friday.
Appears may see a dry day on Monday, with temperatures close to
seasonable levels. Appears will see dry and warmer weather next week
as high pressure builds over the region.
.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday...Not a lot of change
in the overall pattern for next few days. A deep marine layer remains
entrenched across NW Oregon and SW Washington with plenty of clouds.
Still may see some areas of drizzle or light rain over the area
through this afternoon, but any accumulation will be negligible.
The next upper level low is currently over British Columbia and will
push south and tonight into northern Washington, remaining inland.
Then models have been persistent in sliding the system into the
northern Rockies Saturday and Sunday. This track will keep the
Pacific NW in a very similar pattern to today with plenty of clouds
and some chance for light rain. Dried out southern portions of the
local area for Friday and then began the drying trend on Saturday up
to about Salem. With the upper low staying north and then well east
of the area, POPs will favor very far NW Oregon and into Washington.
Flow flattens Saturday with only a shortwave to spark anything
Sunday, so lowered POPs then as well pretty much across the board.
Despite rain chances through the weekend, when it`s over the
perception will likely be that it was cloudy but mainly dry. Bowen
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridging begins to build
in Sunday night, making for dry and warming conditions starting
Monday. Memorial Day itself is currently looking lovely with clearing
skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and even some
mid to upper 60s along the coast. Tuesday should be similarly dry and
sunny, but warmer, with inland temperatures approaching the mid 80s
as flow turns offshore. Models disagree regarding when the ridge will
break down with the earlier models suggesting rain chances creeping
back into the forecast Wednesday while others hold off until Thursday
or even later. If the earlier models are right, an upper low to the
SW of the area could put us in a favorable pattern for thunder at
least in the Cascades starting Wednesday afternoon, but confidence at
this point is low. Bowen
.AVIATION...VFR conditions across the area this morning. Will
continue to see overcast skies with cigs around 4000-6000 ft this
afternoon. Seeing some occasional sprinkles or drizzle along the
Coast and isolated -ra Inland. With any sprinkles or light rain,
may see cigs drop down to around 2500 ft, mainly along the Coast.
Otherwise, cigs will start to drop this evening, down to around
3500 to 4000 ft Inland, and down to around 2500 to 3000 ft along
the Coast. May see some lower clouds inland Friday morning around
2000 to 2500 feet, particularly at southern terminals KEUG and
KSLE. Any MVFR cigs inland should lift to VFR by 18Z, and by 20Z
along the Coast. Still will see overcast skies tomorrow, but cigs
will lift to around 4000 to 6000 ft by mid-morning through the
PDX AND APPROACHES...Cigs currently around 5000 ft. Will see cigs
drop to around 3500 ft late this evening and hover around 3500 ft
overnight. Could see a few lower clouds around 2500 ft Friday
morning from 14Z-18Z, then cigs will lift back up to around 5000
ft for Friday afternoon. -McCoy
.MARINE...Winds generally around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
today. Strongest winds are generally west of 10 nm from the Coast.
As high pressure weakens over the waters on Friday, will see winds
become weaker and turn more westerly by Friday afternoon. Will see
a weak disturbance brush the north portion of our Coastal Waters
on Saturday, turning winds southerly and bringing a chance for
gusts to 20 to 25 kt on Saturday afternoon. Behind this system
we`ll see winds turn back northerly as high pressure builds back
over our waters. Return to the pattern of afternoon/evening gusty
winds near 20 kt for early next week.
Seas currently around 5 to 6 feet. May see seas in the outer
waters get up near 7 ft this evening, but then wave heights will
start to fall on Friday, dropping down to around 4 to 5 feet by
Saturday. Expecting seas to stay fairly benign through early next
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.