Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 070530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 940 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Updated pops based on radar and model trends, which keeps the
main band of snow just north of the Pikes Peak region through the
rest of tonight, though will continue to see periods of light snow
fall across central mts and occasional light snow across northern
portions of the Pikes Peak region and the Palmer Dvd.

UPDATE Issued at 452 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Updated pops based on radar trends, though with dry air in place
in the lower atmosphere, will take time to see snow make it down
to the surface.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

A weather disturbance will move from ID into WY and CO tonight,
bringing increasing snow chances and an increase in winds to the
high country.  Snow can be expected over the mountain areas through
tonight, with the highest accumulations generally falling over the
central CO mountains. There are some slight model differences with
regards to what will happen over Teller and El Paso counties
tonight, but light snow should develop but accumulations should be
light. After midnight a front will drop south thru sern CO and will
bring gusty northerly winds.  The northerly upslope winds on the
Palmer Dvd and over northern Teller county could lead to snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches into Wed morning.  The combination of
snow, gusty winds and bitterly cold wind chills will create
hazardous conditions for those who need to be outdoor and there
could be poor driving conditions for the morning commute.  Low temps
tonight are expected to range from the single digits below zero to
the teens, but the wind will make it feel much colder in many

On Wed snow will decrease over the mountains of the Continental DVD,
but there will likely be some continued isold to scattered snow
chances thru the day, with only light accumulations in some areas.
The eastern mtns will also probably see some light snow chances thru
the day, but the Teller county and Pikes Peak area are expected to
have the best chances, but accumulations should be light.  It still
looks like much of the eastern plains will have little chance for
accumulating snow, however some isolated areas of light snow will
still be possible. Very cold temps will continue on Wed with highs
in the teens and 20s at the lower elevations and even colder in the

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

There is general agreement through the extended period with broad
northwesterly flow and embedded energy expected across Colorado.
There are minor differences between the operational solutions by
early next week, but the overall trend in pattern is similar.

Wednesday upper level disturbance will be shifting east
of Colorado into the Central Plains Wednesday night. Easterly
upslope flow in the lower levels will help generate light snowfall
over the Eastern Mountains, east into the I-25 corridor through
the evening hours. Snow accumulations will be minor with only and
inch or two possible for the mountain areas. Expect this snowfall
to come to an end by Thursday morning. Cold air will settle over
the region with lows approaching zero degrees to 5 above.

Thursday and Friday...broad northwest flow aloft will lead to
persistent light snowfall over the Central Mountains. Snow
accumulations will be minor with only an inch or two each day.
Elsewhere, expect dry conditions to prevail. Temperatures will be
cold on Thursday with 20s for highs. Increased mixing and
development of southwesterly flow in the lower levels will help
temperatures to warm quickly on Friday with 40s to lower 50s
across the Plains.

Saturday...the next upper disturbance in the flow is forecast to
move across Colorado on Saturday. This will bring increased snow
to the Continental Divide. Several inches, especially over the
Central Mountains, are possible on Saturday. In addition, a cold
front is forecast to move across the Plains. Model solutions are
developing light snow across the Palmer Divide Saturday evening,
and lifting it northeast overnight. The GFS brings this band a bit
further south than the ECMWF, with light snow possible as far
south as Highway 50. For now, just have snow confined to the
Palmer Divide. Mixing ahead of the front should help keep
temperatures warm across the Plains with 50s for highs.

Sunday and Monday...the upper disturbance will shift northeast of
the area by Sunday with continued northwest flow across Colorado.
Light snow will remain confined to the Continental Divide with the
Central Mountains remaining the favorable location. Again, one to
two inches a day are possible during this period. Temperatures
will be cooler with 40s for highs.

Tuesday...models are split on the next upper disturbance. The GFS
brings another front south with better chances for precipitation
across the plains, while the ECMWF keep the energy north and keeps
snow confined to the mountains. For now, have followed the ECMWF
solution with continued mountain snow, with dry conditions across
the plains.

Of note, winds may be an issue throughout the extended period.
Broad, but strong northwesterly flow aloft and mixing may allow
for periods of strong winds. Thursday through Saturday, and again
Sunday through Monday, may be the periods of most concern. Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the rest of
tonght, wtih main band of light snow expected to stay across the
central mountains into northern portions of the Pikes Peak region
and the Palmer Dvd. Another round of light snow showers could
develop tomorrow afternoon across the Pikes Peak region and
possible move south across the southern I-25 corridor tomorrow
evening. The develop and location of these snow showers remains in
question, and have only included VCSH aft 20z for COS and PUB for


Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Wednesday for COZ081-082-

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Wednesday for COZ058>060.



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