Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250520
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1020 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Currently...

Snow showers were increasing across most of the higher trrn at 2 pm.
This is in response to a weak short wave moving towards the region.
temps were quite cold over the region with reading in the 20s and
30s across the plains...20s in the valleys and temps in the single
digits at highest elevations.

Tonight...

Should see an enhanced area of snow showers over the Pikes Peak
region this evening as weak disturbance combines with upslope flow.
Nearly all guidance shows this activity. Interestingly, some of the
guidance shows best snows actually occurring over the COS area
proper vs monument hill region. It is not out of the question that
1 to locally 4" of snow will be possible. This looks realistic as
soundings how favored -10 to -20C area saturated over the Pikes Peak
region during the 00Z-06UTC time frame...so dendritic fluff not out
of the question.

OTher regions which may see some accum snow this evening will be
along the east slopes of the Wet mtns and the central mtns.

Most of all of the snow should end aoa midnight.

It will be cold tonight as lows are going to fall into the teens
across the plains, with single digits in a good part of El Paso
county. Temps for -10F to +10F will occur in the valleys with temps
below zero in the mtns.

Saturday...

Flat west-northwesterly mid lvl flow will prevail across the fcst
area tomorrow, with the primary jet still to our south. It will be
cool tomorrow and breezy at times, with westerly sfc winds of 10 to
20 mph. Stronger gusts will occur in the higher elevations.

With the jet south of us and cold air aloft, along with the westerly
flow, the central mtns should see some steady light snow...and 3-6
inches will be likely.

Saturday night into Sunday...

Snow will continue in the c mtns Sat nite with snow decreasing
across the c mtns Sunday morning. With another short wave moving
across the dropping south, the SW mtns may see some enhanced
snowfall activity during the day Sunday. The remainder of the region
should remain dry, although snow showers will be possible across all
of the remainder of the higher terrain.

Max temps Sunday will warm up a few degrees as compared to Saturday.
winds overall will also be lighter than Saturday so Sunday should be
the better of the two days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Primary longer term meteorological issues are temperatures, gusty
winds at times, primarily higher terrain pops and localized
elevated fire weather concerns at times.

Recent longer term forecast model soundings, PV analysis and
computer simulations indicate that zonal to northwesterly upper
flow will prevail over the forecast district during the longer
term with upper disturbance initially impacting primarily western
locations with unsettled conditions from Monday into Tuesday
morning with precipitation then impacting eastern locations from
later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

At the surface, increasing moist northeasterly to easterly flow
should be noted over eastern sections from Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

In addition, localized elevated fire weather concerns will be
possible Monday and Thursday.

Generally near to below seasonal temperatures are anticipated
over the majority of the forecast district from Monday into
Thursday with temperatures then expected to rebound to above
seasonal levels by next Friday.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from
Monday into Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1019 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions at times due to low clouds, light snow
showers and fog expected to continue in and near the vicinity of
KCOS into tonight with improving conditions anticipated after
10Z. Although lower cloud deck also anticipated at KPUB at times
tonight, generally VFR conditions should be noted at KPUB during
the balance of the next 24 hours. Finally, KALS should also
experience generally VFR conditions during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT


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