Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will extend into the region through
Friday. Meanwhile, a storm system will develop over the sub-tropical
Atlantic and drift toward the Southeast U.S. coast through the holiday


.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Tranquil weather pattern to persist through tonight.

While an area of high pressure at the surface will extend across
central NC tonight, a weak mid level s/w will pass to our north.
Little in the way of sensible weather will be affected by this
feature, though the mid layers of the atmosphere will become more
moist compared to today. This may result in patches of scattered-
broken stratocu later tonight, mainly across the northern Piedmont.

A modifying air mass will result in overnight temperatures a tad
warmer than the previous night. Min temps in the lower 60s.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday Night/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Summer like weather pattern will prevail across central NC Thursday
and Friday. Bermuda high pressure will extend across central NC,
maintaining a very warm and mostly dry forecast. The addition of mid
level moisture tonight, strong heating, and presence of a weak lee
side trough may be enough to trigger/support an isolated
thunderstorm during peak heating on Thursday. The convective threat
will mainly be confined to the Piedmont, as a modest mid level cap
will inhibit convective development over the rest of the forecast
area. Similar conditions probable Friday afternoon.

Low level thicknesses around 1415m (+/- 4m) will support afternoon
temperatures well above normal, with max temps in the 85-90 degree
range. Continue modification of the atmosphere will result in
relatively warm overnight temperatures in the low-mid 60s.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

The general overall pattern for the weekend and into early next week
will be characterized aloft by a ridge over the SE U.S. and a trough
over the Midwest. A low pressure system in the mid to upper levels
will develop off the FL coast beneath the ridge. At the surface, the
high that was ridging westward into the Carolinas will be pushed
northward and largely out of the region by the developing low
as it moves north-northwestward along the FL coast.

The aforementioned low pressure system will develop off the FL coast
Friday night into Saturday and could develop tropical or sub-
tropical characteristics as it moves northwestward. Though there are
still plenty of model differences on the evolution of this low,
there is fairly good model agreement and thus high confidence that
it will develop. The general track is expected to take it NW toward
the SE U.S. coast on Saturday resulting in an increase in moisture,
clouds, and chances for convection through the day and into the
overnight hours. Beyond Saturday, the low could remain near the
SC/GA coast through the remainder of the period. The exact coverage,
location, and timing of convection is dependent on how the low
evolves. However, the convection is expected to be largely diurnal
in nature, with the highest chances in the aft/eve and a lull
overnight. Rainfall amounts through the weekend and early next week
will depend on the path of the low and given the uncertainty of
that, will hold off speculation of totals for now.

Temperatures through the period: with the increasing clouds and
chances for rainfall, expect highs to decrease from the mid 80s on
Saturday, to upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Wednesday, with the
potential for some mid 80s to creep back into the SW by Tuesday.
Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Memorial Day/...
As of 110 PM Wednesday...

An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain VFR
conditions across central NC through Thursday night. The exception
will be a slight threat for isolated afternoon-early evening
convection on Thursday, mainly over the western Piedmont. Where the
isolated convection occurs, expect MVFR ceilings and visibility as
well as gusty sfc winds.

Aviation conditions varying between VFR and MVFR will occur Friday
and Saturday, mainly due to early morning fog and/or low stratus,
and isolated-scattered afternoon through early evening convection.

The probability for adverse aviation conditions will increase Sunday
and Memorial Day as an area of low pressure off the southeast U.S.
coast spreads deep moisture into our region resulting in sub_VFR
ceilings and an increasing threat for scattered convection.





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