Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 280057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS FROM RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS WERE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE AREAS OF CAPE OF 1500+
J/KG AND MAXIMUM OF THETAE/ADVECTION. AREAS FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND
WEST HAVE GREATLY STABILIZED DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... WHILE THE NE ZONES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WORKS OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING OR
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS. LOWS GENERALLY 65-
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA MAY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD.
ALSO...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THURSDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY)...
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS
(OR LESS). THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR
WEST...ALTHOUGH CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET FROM OUR TRIAD
ZONES. WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...AND TO OUR EAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES
THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH...CONSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF HWY 64...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE TO OUR EAST TO SEE HOW FAR ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH
INLAND.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLICATED PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
EVOLVING WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OR
GULF COAST REGION...AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA SUGGESTS AT LEAST CLIMO-POPS EACH DAY...DESPITE
LACK OF MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS.

TEMPS: LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE REPLACED BY HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER-MIDDLE 80S) EARLY-
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STILL A FEW ONGOING SHOWERS
NEAR KRDU AND KRWI. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING
OFF TO THE NNE... WHILE WEAKENING. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AFTER THIS FROM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS.
WRT SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... WILL RETAIN MENTION OF MVFR
STRATUS... BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH WE WILL SEE UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK IS QUITE LOW (WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING/MORPHING WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE MORNING)...
GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. THUS... HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF ANY SUB-VFR
CIGS UNTIL 12Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 15-16Z.
HOWEVER... HAVE ADDED SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRDU AND KRWI GIVEN THE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY OLD OUTFLOW...
SEABREEZE... AND ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THUS... WILL ADD A PROB30 GROUP TO ALL TAF SITES FOR TOMORROW
AS NO ONE AREAS IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/KRD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.