Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 111418
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE REDUCED THE ALREADY-LOW POPS FURTHER...
CONFINING CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH DRY (BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY) CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
CWA WITH VERY LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS TO ITS WEST. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
PERSISTS AND WITH THE LIGHT FLOW AND STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...
THIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISPERSE THIS MORNING DESPITE DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE. BLENDED TPW AND PW PROGS SHOW WELL THIS MUCH DRIER AIR... AND
THIS COMBINED WITH MINIMAL HEATING THIS MORNING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PRECIP TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY ONLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...
WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE
TENTATIVELY KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 RANGE... HOWEVER
BASED ON THE CONTINUED SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPS THUS FAR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA... THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWNWARD
FURTHER AND WILL RE-EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. -GIH

TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH
JUST A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...MAY SEE AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70 IN THE SANDHILL
AND COASTAL PLAIN. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING/DISSIPATING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WEAK-MODERATE W-NW FLOW
WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF
TRIGGERS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SE WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ALSO...ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY THREATEN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THIS
REGION LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MID LEVEL RIDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL HOLD ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY A DRY AND HOT DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH THE BEST
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM THREAT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTES
(FROM POSSIBLE CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN) AND MAYBE ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO
10 METERS HIGHER THAN ON SATURDAY. THUS... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
AND LACK OF ANY FORCING FEATURES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE COUNTRY... WITH A DEEP ANOMALOUS FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AS A DEEP VORTEX DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
HELP SUPPRESS THE RIDGING ALOFT WESTWARD... ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
SHOWN THIS FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE IS NOW HANGING THE FRONT UP ALONG EASTERN NC. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLY ACROSS (AT LEAST)
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE IN THE DEEP MID LEVEL FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGH... ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT WE COULD SEE MORE OF AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE EVENT... AS DEEP SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE MORE LIKE A SYSTEM IN
LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIATION WRT HOW THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
INTO THE 90S ON MONDAY... TO GENERALLY 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD (MAYBE A FEW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY). LOW
TEMPS TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AND DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL
TIMING OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY MORNING TO THE 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM FRIDAY...

A NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 14Z-
15Z.

AFTER 16Z...AS DRIER AIR BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT INTO A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES 3500-5000FT.
ELSEWHERE...POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS 2500-4000FT EXPECTED. IN ADDITION WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN THOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR TO THE EAST-SE OF
KFAY AND KRWI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES  FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN
EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS


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