Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 291043
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

MOST TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE AIR MASS WILL
BE DRY WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UNDER 0.2 INCH AND FORECAST K INDICES THROUGH THE DAY WELL NEGATIVE.
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH SOME THIN UPSTREAM CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BACK DURING THE DAY...WITH A FEW MODEST GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 1 AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER
AND THE TRIAD. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BELOW
GUIDANCE...BUT WITH GOOD SUN AND A BACKING WIND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
MOSTLY A BLEND OR LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV...FOR MAXES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THICKNESSES ARE LOWER...AND HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE A COUPLE OF UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES REGARDING THE
TIMING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BUT A REVIEW OF THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIES
FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 16Z OR SO. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT 300MB JET AND A 70KT 500MB JET
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IS PRESENT AS WELL BY
ABOUT 12Z MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY QUICK TROUGHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM QPF ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP ARW SUGGESTS A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NEAR OR AT
CATEGORICAL...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THOSE CHANCES FALLING QUICKLY AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 2KM
DOES NOT REGISTER WITH LIFTED INDICES ABOVE 0C. ALSO...PARTIAL
THICKNESSES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID...IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS.
ANTICIPATE ABOUT A TENTH-INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE STABILIZING
AND POSSIBLY RISING A TOUCH LATE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 35 PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT
WITH SOME INCREASING WIND AND DRY AIR NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY DURATION FOR ANY FROST...ESPECIALLY
WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER A
LITTLE LONGER. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THEN PROVIDED
DIMINISHING CLOUDS TAKE PLACE AS ANTICIPATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THAT WILL BE THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 37 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...THEN A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST-FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE LOW IMPACT SEASONABLE WEATHER BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS 65-70
AND LOWS 40-45.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WAA ENSUES. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THE WAA...WHILE THE GFS
WEAKENS THE WAVE AND IS DRIER. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE
FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASING...BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERES STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE TAKE-AWAY
SHOULD BE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME - HIGHS IN 70S BOTH DAYS AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR
LESS...WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
AND MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...A
BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE
BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PREDOMINANT CEILING TYPE WITH THE BAND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR...WITH ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

CEILINGS IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR AGAIN WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH A CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND A LITTLE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW.

    RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

GSO    20-1966

RDU    20-1966

FAY    24-1982

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH


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