Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 211914
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
313 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then
linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high
pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states for the
next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 313 PM Thursday...

A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift
slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the
broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New
England Coast. The most concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
clustered around Johnston, Wilson and Wayne counties is coincident
with the cold core low with H5 temps around -14C. Away from the
upper core, coverage will remain isolated to widely scattered.
Can`t rule out marginally severe hail ranging from dime to quarter size
along with the potential for one or two trees down from the
collapse of a core. Otherwise, convection will fade with loss of heating.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, with the potential for patchy
fog in areas that see any appreciable rainfall through the remainder of
the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM Thursday...

Sheared remnants of the weak upper level low will linger across eastern NC
as we begin to feel increasing influence of the strong mid-upper level ridge
centered from the southern Plains to the Great Lake region. Can`t rule out
an isolated shower/storm across the far SE zones. Otherwise, it will
be dry on Friday with persistence in temperatures ranging from mid 80s
NW to upper 80s SE. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

General troffing in the wake of Jose is pressed south as high
pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and drier air builds in
for the upcoming weekend. This high pressure looks to remain over
the area through the extended, pending any westward deviation in the
forecast track of Maria, which is still progged to remain well
offshore. Mid to high cloudiness will spread westward across the
area Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearing by Thursday as Maria
continues to recurve northeast. An airmass change is finally on the
horizon, but slightly beyond this extended package...stay tuned as
next weekend`s forecast comes into focus. In the meantime, highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 157 PM Thursday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms this afternoon, more clustered near KRDU, KRWI and KFAY.
A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any of
the stronger storm cells. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR
conditions this afternoon and evening. Any storms will quickly
diminish with loss of heating, leaving behind mostly clear skies
overnight along with light to calm winds. MVFR fog will be possible
area-wide, especially in areas that receive any substantial rainfall
this afternoon. As always, fog prone KRWI will see visibilities
fluctuate between IFR to MVFR between 06 to 12z.

Dry VFR conditions are expected on Friday.

Outlook: Aside from some patchy sub-VFR conditions from fog/stratus
during the pre-dawn hours each morning, expected dry VFR conditions
to persist through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL



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