Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 292347
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE SLOWLY MODIFIES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL
FRONT RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...VINCENT



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