Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 022208
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
308 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, then
thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday with a few
strong storms possible by Wednesday. More widespread rain and high
elevation snow, with possible thunderstorms may continue Thursday
and into the weekend as low pressure remains over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Unsettled weather pattern will remain over the region through the
rest of the week as low pressure drops into the Western U.S. A
few isolated showers will continue in the Sierra this evening,
maybe an isolated thunderstorm, but overall shower activity will
be weak.

A large area of low pressure will move into the California Coast
Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing instability and moisture.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday
and Wednesday. A strong 100kt jet will push into our area with
good upper level diffluence. This will increase thunderstorm
coverage on Tuesday and potentially some stronger, more organized
storms on Wednesday as the left exit region moves over the Sierra
and western NV. Heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the best chances being on Wednesday. There may be a limiting
of convection on Wednesday if we get too much cloud cover,
although with the dynamics of this jet/low pressure system we
should at least see isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Shower activity will continue Wednesday night into Thursday as low
pressure continues to send moisture into the region. A deformation
zone looks set up over the region on Thursday, with widespread
moderate rainfall and localized areas of heavier rainfall within
the convective/deformation bands. Heaviest precipitation looks to
be around the Reno-Carson City-Minden-Lake Tahoe areas, although
this may shift north or south as we get closer to the event.

Latest operational model runs and ensembles continue to be in
good agreement overall with high chances for rain, thunderstorms,
and high elevation snow. Forecaster confidence is fairly high
regarding these wet conditions into Thursday night, although
details on the location of heaviest precipitation is only medium
for now. Hoon

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

A slow moving upper low will remain across the region and provide
potential for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The
core of the low will dip south near Las Vegas leaving western Nevada
and the northern Sierra within a region of wrap around moisture and
precipitation. Instability should be sufficient to maintain
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with
diminishing chances Sunday into Monday.

Ensemble spreads and model consistency remain well behaved so
confidence remains good that we will remain in a wet and cool
pattern through the weekend. Snow levels Friday will begin around
7,000 feet Friday and will rise through the weekend as the low
begins to pull away. Nonetheless, heavier banded precipitation could
locally drag down snow levels and may still create snow
accumulations with travel impacts across higher Sierra passes this
weekend. Otherwise, mainly looking for rain showers with scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rain and abundant
small hail. Additional periods of heavy rainfall during this wet
period may also result in rises in some small creeks and streams.

Those with outdoor recreation plans this weekend should be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions in and near showers and storms.
Those on the lake waters and with other outdoor recreation plans
will be subject to lightning/small hail/heavy rain through Sunday.
The low should pull far enough east by Monday so most shower and
storm activity should come to close. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers will prevail through early evening but
precipitation should remain on the lighter side. Otherwise, light
winds and VFR conditions expected through 18z Tuesday with another
round of lighter showers and thunderstorms mainly for Sierra
terminals Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities on Tuesday for KTRK/TVL
will remain around 30%/10%.

An approaching low pressure system will increase the chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday with widespread activity
expected by Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that these
showers and storms will be better organized and stronger. These
storms will have the potential of producing gusty of outflow winds,
abundant small hail, lightning, and rapid reductions in visibility
in and near storms. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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