Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 162124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FAST
MOVING COOL FRONT MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO BACKED OFF POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AS SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS THURSDAY MAY REACH NEAR 80 IN THE
BASIN AND RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. THIS LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS MAIN EFFECT MAY BE TO BOOST THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE BUMPED THE WINDS UP...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY STILL DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR ERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ARE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO HOLD
ON TO SOME MOISTURE IN THE SRN CWA FRIDAY AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SHOWERS INTO LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE DRAWBACK COULD BE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY THAT
STIFLES DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LVL INSTABILITY. FOR NOW DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF DECREASING INSTABILITY TO PULL THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE ON ITS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTER DECREASING A FEW
DEGREES FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE FAR SRN CWA MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR COULD INCREASE TOO MUCH
FOR THESE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST...BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. 20

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL
DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE TAHOE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION BRINGING A COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 9-12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH PRECIP REACHING NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
TAHOE BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND NEAR 40
AT LAKE TAHOE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS OCCURRED. TRAVEL IMPACTS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST PASSES AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
STICKING GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
RECENT WARM SPELL.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
MYRICK
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MYRICK
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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