Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 250920
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
220 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with below average temperatures
are expected again today, while snow may produce occasional
travel impacts over higher passes. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will decrease from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend with
a gradual warming trend. For next week, dry conditions and above
average temperatures are likely to return.
The unsettled weather pattern will continue for one more day as
upper low completes its slow trek across southern CA and enters
Arizona this evening. Meanwhile, a secondary wave will drop
southward into northern NV today and help to fire up another round
of convection. Tuesday was primarily a day where a large number
of showers developed but only a few became thunderstorms. With
convective development again likely to begin before noon and cloud
cover becoming widespread again, we are expecting a similar
outcome today with many showers and a few thunderstorms popping
up across the region.
The most favored locations for thunderstorms this afternoon are
difficult to determine in this weather pattern. Short range
guidance suggests a slightly better potential for more activity
near the Sierra and into far western NV mainly south of Reno, and
also for portions of northwest NV north of Lovelock. By this
evening, this elevated potential shifts to areas near and south of
US-50. However, stronger cells with localized heavy rain or
accumulating small hail will not be limited to these more favored
locations. Temperatures edge upward a few degrees today, which
would limit the threat of snow to the highest Sierra passes,
mainly above 8500-9000 feet.
With the upper low finally departing later tonight and drier
northwest flow aloft prevailing Thursday through Friday, the
overall shower and thunderstorm potential will decrease. Residual
moisture and weak upper level disturbances along with increased
daytime heating may generate some late day convection near the
Sierra and far western NV on Thursday. By Friday, this potential
for isolated thunder shifts farther south to Mono and Mineral
counties. Elsewhere, a more stable air mass should inhibit
thunderstorm formation. MJD
.LONG TERM...Memorial Day weekend into early June...
The switch to summer may arrive rather quickly as the end of the
cool and wet pattern appears to be in sight. Latest simulations
continue to keep the core of the last Gulf of Alaska low over the
Pacific Northwest for the holiday weekend. Made a few adjustments
to decrease the chance of showers and thunderstorms and to
increase afternoon highs.
Based on the latest simulations the threat for showers and storms
will be limited to along and just east of the Sierra Crest south of
I-80 on Saturday, then south of US-50 for Sunday. By Monday most of
the moisture should be gone for a dry and warm Memorial Day. Overall
temperatures should climb well into the 60s and 70s, with a few
low 80s possible on Memorial Day. Gusty winds remain possible for
Sunday afternoon and evening.
For the start of June models are in good agreement in allowing a
ridge over the eastern Pacific to drift over the west coast. This
would start a dry period, and could allow afternoon highs to soar
into the 80s for the valleys with 70s to near 80 in the Sierra.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible again today. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms diminishes over the holiday weekend.
A few showers will linger this morning east of KSVE-KRNO-KMMH, with
stronger convection developing after 17-18z. Main storm threats are
moderate to heavy rain, small hail and outflow winds of 30-35 kts.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...