Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 221534
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
834 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS. A
DRY SLOT PUSHING IN EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DECREASE BELOW THRESHOLDS ALLOWING FOR THESE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. WEISHAHN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5 MILES OR GREATER ACROSS THE SMOKE
ADVISORY AREA, WE WILL ADJUST THE VALID TIMES TO EXCLUDE MOST OF
THE MORNING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, AND EXCLUDE THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. VISIBILITY IS UNLIKELY TO
DROP OFF VERY MUCH THIS MORNING FROM SMOKE ALONE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND TRUCKEE WHERE FOG COULD BE MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR POOR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO THE SIERRA TODAY, ADDITIONAL SMOKE COULD RETURN BY LATE
MORNING IN THE TAHOE BASIN. FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA, THE
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS MOST LIKELY TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL SMOKE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT DROP ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO 1 MILE, WE DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE THE SMOKE ADVISORY SINCE
THE KING FIRE COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DUE TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST.

HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE
KING FIRE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BURN ACTIVELY. PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER, WHILE ZEPHYR
BREEZES INCREASE FOR WESTERN NV EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SMOKE AND HAZE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND
75-80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
REACH NORTHEAST CA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY THAT TIME. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS/EC CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER ALTHOUGH IT IS
SLOWING ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO UTAH. THE EC IS EVEN SLOWER THIS
MORNING NOT MOVING OUT THE UPPER LOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THE EC SEEMS
OVERLY SLOW NOW AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT FASTER AND SHOWING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH A POTENTIAL FASTER SPEED.

THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY (GFS)
OR FRIDAY (EC). TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST DAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS THE EC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME MODERATE PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO 8000-9000
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF
SNOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WIND TO WEAKEN A BIT AS SFC PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN WESTERN NV AND LOW 60S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS,
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VIS CONTINUES TO BE
VFR THIS MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS IN RENO-TAHOE EXCEPT FOR KTRK
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 3-5 MILES THIS MORNING. AFTER
18Z, EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THE SMOKE LIKELY
DROPPING VIS TO 1-3 MILES FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK WITH KTRK
SEEING THE LOWEST VIS. SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS AFTER 03Z AOA 3SM AGAIN. THE SAME IDEAS LOOK TO
REPEAT TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SW WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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