Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS65 KREV 261004
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TODAY, BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SOME MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES THIS MORNING. WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY FOR A 5-10 DEGREE WARM UP OVER
WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES, WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEYS.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF INTO IDAHO AND EASTERN NEVADA
AS A TROUGH NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL INTENSIFY
THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS COOLER AIR INVADES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MEAN AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH FOR THE SIERRA FRONT (RENO-CARSON CITY AREA) AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXCEED DAILY RECORDS
FOR A NUMBER OF SITES FRIDAY, INCLUDING RENO.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE
AREA FOR COOLER, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODELS
HAVE REALLY ZEROED IN THIS SOLUTION IN THE PAST FEW RUNS SO CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH HIGHER FOR LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION (AND NO THUNDERSTORMS)
SATURDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
ADJUST WINDS TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER WAVES AND
RESULTANT SURFACE TROUGHS AFTER MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TODAY...BUT
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.

ECMWF IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA THAT IS NEVER COMPLETELY CUT OFF. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS LOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE TSTMS...BUT THESE WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE SO THEY
WERE NOT ADDED YET.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
THAN SUNDAY...BUT THEN FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST. ALL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE WAVE WEDNESDAY MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS LOW. OVERALL...THE ZONAL FLOW
MAY ACT TO JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND DROP TEMPS A BIT. THE EXTENT TO THIS DROP IN TEMPS IS HARD TO
QUANTIFY THIS FAR OUT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN
WITH A DIP. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THOUGHT FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP IN FOG
PRONE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. STILL
THINK WE COULD GET FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH MORE DRYING TODAY,
FOG MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AT
THE SURFACE EAST OF THE SIERRA. RIDGE WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE BUT FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF KSVE AND GERLACH
EARLY SATURDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.