Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 261024
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO
MUCH OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE. SOME
FLURRIES CONTINUE ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, BUT WITH
MOISTURE SHALLOWING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH
BY SUNRISE.

WITH THE SHALLOWING MOISTURE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES FINALLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
BENEATH MODERATE INVERSIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT THEN BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE
A DRY FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BEHIND IT. WITH A STRONGER
SURFACE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, SOME MIXING IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY. THE FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A COLD PERIOD IS STILL ON TAP AS UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA-NV. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
THE GFS MOS WARMUP GOING INTO THURSDAY WAS TEMPERED AS WE WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL BE MADE TO FEEL COLDER,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, AS WINDS WILL BE BRISK NORTHEAST. ECMWF MOS
WAS EVEN COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS 00Z RUN, SHOWING HIGHS IN THE
20S EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW,
ESPECIALLY WED-THU. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WANTS TO ELONGATE
UPPER LOW INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND IS THUS SLOWER AND FURTHER
NORTH WITH UPPER LOW AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK BACK EASTWARD MID
WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE GFS
IS QUICKER AND DROPS UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
REPRESENTS AN OVERALL DRIER SOLUTION AS WELL AS STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE LATE TUE-WED. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN BOTH MODELS, BUT THE GFS MEAN 500MB
HEIGHT FIELDS WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO PUT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH WE EXPANDED THEM TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK,
SNOW CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED AS WELL AS EXTENDED INTO
WED AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH
AN EAST GRADIENT PERSISTING OVER THE SIERRA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. THUS FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF FREEZING
FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR KTRK. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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