Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
000
FXUS65 KREV 282254
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
354 PM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend will be the story
Wednesday before the next storm arrives early Thursday morning.
The Thursday storm will push a strong cold front through the area
with strong winds and rain/snow/pellet showers through the day.
Thursday afternoon and Friday will be much cooler behind this
storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

High pressure will provide dry conditions and mild temperatures
through Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will reach into
the upper 60s to near 70 for western Nevada valleys with upper 50s
to lower 60s for Sierra valleys. Conditions will change on
Thursday as our next spring storm is set to send a strong cold
front through the Sierra and western Nevada. This will be a very
fast moving front that will provide strong and gusty winds along
with a mix of rain/snow/pellet showers through the day.

Winds will become gusty across the ridgetops Wednesday night with
a very strong surface gradient developing as the strong cold front
quickly drops into northern California. The wind impact with this
storm will be more with the sustained winds and not so much on the
gusts as we typically see. As such have issued Wind Advisories for
Thursday and also posted a High Wind Watch for Mono and Mineral
counties where the strongest sustained winds can be expected. The
gustiest portion of winds will occur with the passage of the cold
front reach should quickly reach the Hwy 50 corridor roughly
early to mid-morning. Behind the front, a strong surface gradient
may produce sustained winds in the 30-40 mph range across Mono-
Mineral through Thursday evening. Travel restrictions for high
profile vehicles can be expected along with hazardous boating on
areas lakes, and areas of aviation turbulence/shear.

The front will also usher in moisture, instability, and forcing so
widespread rain/snow/pellet showers can be expected during the
day. Precipitation onset will largely follow the progression of
the front with northeast California seeing showers by early
Thursday morning and spreading south to the Hwy 50 corridor by
mid-morning. Snow levels will be high Thursday morning (above
8,500`) and will quickly drop behind the front between
6,000-6,500`. It will be possible to see snow levels temporarily
plummet as the front moves through due to the convective nature of
the system. As such, areas below 6,000` may see accumulating snow
pellet showers and even some chances for thunder/lightning.
Behind the front, snow levels will stabilize and showers activity
will continue but thunderstorm chances will diminish as forcing
from the front departs. Showers will diminish by Friday morning.
Fuentes


.Long Term...Saturday through next week...

By Saturday short wave ridging will build over the region as the
departing low pressure moves into the Rockies. Temperatures peak
over the weekend 5-10 degrees above average with western Nevada
reaching the upper 60`s and the Sierra in the upper 50`s.

Sunday into early next week the region will see northwest flow with
a few embedded shortwaves. Currently most model simulations only
brush these shortwaves into western Nevada bringing slight chances
of precipitation. Timing and intensity of these shortwaves will
continue to be a challenge in the forecast for the next couple
days.

By the middle of next week a pattern change is beginning to emerge
as we turn from the typical spring pattern of the last couple weeks
back to the potential for stronger storms along the west coast.
Anomalous low pressure begins to deepen in the eastern Pacific
during the second half of next week. Atmospheric river landfall
tools are also showing increased chances for a return of more
substantial moisture moving into the west coast the second half of
next week. How far south the jet stream and associated moisture
makes it. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...

Ridge over the area today will begin to break down Wednesday as a
fast moving storm moves through the region Thursday. The fast moving
front will bring rain and snow pellet showers to region, but the
bigger impact in western Nevada may be be from strong gradient winds
along the front. Quick drops in CIG/VIS will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday afternoon right along the front. Winds could be
gusting to 30-40 kts with gusts in excess of 50 kts possible in Mono
and Mineral counties Thursday. -Zach

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday NVZ004-005.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     NVZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ003.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday CAZ070.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     CAZ073.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.