Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 240209
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
THE DELMARVA THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT RAIN MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE PIEDMONT
FROM THE NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
SOUTHSIDE HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO REACH
THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF DANVILLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF HALIFAX
AND POSSIBLY CHARLOTTE COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...COMBINED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A PEPPERING OF MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN STILL EXPECT
LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
SPOTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WORKING NNW ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT
AREA BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE BULLSEYE OF HIGHER QPF WILL BE EAST OF US
ACROSS THE RICHMOND-TIDEWATER. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE THE
MOISTURE STRETCH INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...BUT
TO LEAN TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE BLUE
RIDGE...DRY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LIKELY POPS EAST OF DANVILLE
AND LYNCHBURG.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS STUCK IN THE 60S OUT EAST TOMORROW
WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST TOWARD THE
RICHLANDS/CHILHOWIE REGION WITH MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SFC LOW OVER ERN NC WILL SHIFT NWD ALONG THE COAST INTO THE DELMARVA
BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT LEAVING BEHIND WEAK UPPER
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE RAIN THREAT TO STAY
GREATEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 IN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
LOWER THREAT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRE
UP ACROSS THE FAR SW MTNS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT. SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDIER IN THE
EAST WITH MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ELSEWHERE THURSDAY. LOOKING AT
MILDER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH SOME LINGERING 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WED NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO MODIFY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO WIN OUT THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE LOW OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST
FLOW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS NOT
STRAYING TOO FAR FROM LATE SEPT. CLIMATOLOGY WITH MAINLY L/M 50S
AT NIGHT AND L/M 70S IN THE DAY. BOTH GFS/EURO CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST OR LOWER MS
VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY AND TRYING TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT UPPER AIR BALLOON RELEASE BOTH INDICATE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND ANY
RAIN WHICH MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY SPRINKLES. GENERALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH KLWB HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF FALLING TO IFR DUE
TO RIVER FOG.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...REACHING THE OUTER BANKS BY 00Z THURSDAY. MOISTURE
RADIATING OUTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM KBCB EASTWARD.
EXPECT LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS TO BE IN PLACE AFTER 22Z
FOR KROA/KDAN/KLYH...WITH A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
PASS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE PINWHEELING OUT TO SEA AS IT RUNS INTO AN AREA OF
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...AND MAY SEE A RETURN OF LOW
STRATUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS MARINE AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO REESTABLISH ITSELF BY THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT FROM BEDFORD
EAST THROUGH CAMPBELL AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES BECOMING NOTICEABLE
WITH A 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES..LESS THAN 25
PERCENT OF NORMAL IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC


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