Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 231354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH
BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED
WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO
THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/RAB


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