Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292339

639 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Low topped subtropical convection, some supercells, has developed
in moderate instability along the eastern edge (and points east)
of an area of rain and thunderstorms ahead of an advancing
shortwave over eastern OK. Rotation seems to be maximized
along/just north of a w-e oriented front that extends from the
three state OK/AR/MO border into south central MO near KUNO. 0-3km
helicity is fairly good 150-200 m2/s2 while low level 0-1km is
weaker, but the boundary is likely helping to augment lower level
rotation a bit. Storm rotation has been more prominent/persistent
in mid levels and less so closer to the sfc. Will maintain a close
met-watch on storms over southern MO.

Rainfall is the next concern. Efficient rainfall has occurred in
the high PWAT environment and lift will be aided by the shortwave
moving through the region early tonight. Rainfall of an inch or two
over the next 6-10 hours will elevate the flood risk, especially
where locally heavy rain/cell training occurs.

The overall forecast trend is to move the heavier rain east of the
region more quickly and will taper off to rain/drizzle on Saturday
with cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The shortwave moves east of the area with broad upper level
ridging moving into the Plains early next week, then through our
area by Wed-Thu. Trend has been to hold back western troughing a
bit with upper level ridging remaining over the central CONUS.
Looks like a dry period for much of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Moist low level flow combined with
shortwave trough and surface boundary responsible for widespread
convection at the taf sites. Main thrust will be east of the KJLN
aerodrome but impacting the KSGF and KBBG taf sites through mid
evening. Ceilings and visibilities will be variable in the
convective elements with IFR likely at times. Once boundary slides
eastward pushing strongest convection with it winds will become more
northwesterly with stratus then building across the area behind the
front. IFR ceilings likely from later tonight into the first half of
Saturday before lifting into the MVFR category by late


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR MOZ066-068>070-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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