Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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212
FXUS63 KSGF 230731
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

An upper level low was essentially parked over SC Missouri and NC
Arkansas this morning. A very sharp clearing line near US Highway
65 will slowly move east this morning as the upper low begins its
slow departure. As slow as this low is moving it may take much of
the morning to clear out in the Eastern Ozarks. A few showers
will continue to be possible as well across the Eastern Ozarks
early this morning but should diminish as we go later into the
morning. Winds will begin to increase and veer to the west and
southwest Today ahead of an approaching cold front. The dry cold
front looks to come through during the afternoon. Wind gusts of
30-35mph will be possible behind the front. High`s will generally
be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will stay up tonight with lows
in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The overall synoptic pattern the rest of the week into the weekend
is a dry northwest flow with upper level troughs moving through
every few days. Tuesday will be windy as gusty northwest winds
will persist. GFS forecast soundings show the potential for 35-40kts
downward momentum transfers if we were to completely mix out
during the afternoon. Currently it looks just shy of Wind Advisory
criteria but will need to be monitored for Tuesday afternoon. It
will feel rather brisk with highs only in the 50s Tuesday.

Depending on how much winds can relax late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will make the difference on frost potential.
Temps Wednesday morning will be in the low to mid 30s. Surface
high will be over Texas and winds look to remain around 5-10kts.
Sheltered areas will likely see some frost Wednesday morning and
trends will need to be monitored for a potential Frost Advisory
for Wednesday morning.

Another dry front looks to come through Thursday however highs
will reach the low 70s before that occurs. This will likely be the
warmest day for a while as 850mb temps crash into the -5 to -10C
range Friday through the Weekend as a strong upper level low moves
out of Canada and into the Great Lakes. High temps will struggle
to get out of the 40s Friday through Sunday. With a strong
surface high overhead both Saturday and Sunday mornings, there
will be the potential for a frost/freeze as lows fall in the
28-32F range. No widespread precipitation is expected Tuesday
through Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Pilots can expect a gradual improvement in flight conditions
tonight as an upper level storm system tracks to the east. Expect
a clearing sky from the west as the night progresses. A dry cold
front will sweep across the region Monday bringing increasing
northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Foster



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