Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 040523
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TURNING COOLER NEXT
WEEK...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER TODAY WITH SMALL
HAIL. MEASURED RAINFALL WAS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH. THE 00Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING INDICATED 478 J/K OF CAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF OVER 7 DEGREES C/KM. THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
AND IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A PATCH
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY.

THE RAIN IS OVER FOR A WHILE AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTPAC DRIFTS EAST OVER CA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MAY UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ACROSS BAJA IN A FAMILIAR
PATTERN THIS WINTER...HELPING TO INCREASE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTPAC. BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH SATURDAY...THE ONLY WEATHER THAT MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS WILL BE
THE OFFSHORE WINDS. NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 45-50 MPH BELOW THE SANTA
ANA MTS TOMORROW FOR A TIME. THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW
RETROGRADES ACROSS BAJA LATE IN THE WEEK...NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GET
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN BELOW ALL THE WIND-PRONE CANYONS AND
PASSES. AT THIS TIME...GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH LOOK LIKELY...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.

THE NE WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT ANY MARINE AIR AND LEAVE VERY LOW RH
EACH DAY. THE CLEAR NIGHTS AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS
AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL...ONLY TO RECOVER JUST AS FAST EACH DAY
AND RISE ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER THE WARM MARCH SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
040500Z...SKC-SCT030 WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FROM 10Z-23Z...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20-30KT GUSTS TO 40KT
OVER THE MTNS...STRONGEST OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KONT BETWN 10Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE... 900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE



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