Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 130957
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE ISLANDS SUN-MON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ITS REPLACED BY A STRONGER
ONE. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE
USVI/WINDWARD AREAS OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PR AND STREAMERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE USVI.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND INDUCED SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AND NIGHT TIME TRADE WIND
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. THIS WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY. THIS WILL RETURN NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND
LIMITING THE LOCAL WEATHER TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR THRU THE END OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 17-
21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FADE TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  73  86  73 /  30  30  30  50
STT  84  73  85  73 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/13


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