Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 200910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESSING WEST
OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WEAK EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCED BY THE TUTT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ...WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THEM
REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT AND MAY PRODUCE ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SO FAR THE TUTT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
TO DAY WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT BY
SUNDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND
TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER
20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WILL
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL SEAS CONTINUED AT 4 FEET OR LESS WITH PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOR THE LATEST AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  87  78  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09




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