Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 280410
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
910 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.Synopsis...
Dry and milder weather expected for NorCal through most of
Wednesday. Another system will brush the region late Wednesday
through Thursday with a few showers.

&&

.Discussion...
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the area for the
next day. Some high clouds will spill over the ridge tonight and
Tuesday but for the most part skies will be mostly clear.
Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 40s overnight in the
valley to the 20s and 30s for mountain valleys.

A light northwest wind will persists overnight in the valley
before increasing during the day to between 10 and 20 mph with
some gusts up to around 25 mph. Temperatures will be warming up
into the low to mid 70s for the valley to the 50s for the
mountains.
.Previous Discussion (Today through Thursday)...

Model analysis and water vapor imagery shows the trough base with
this weekend`s system is now beyond northern California and an
upper level high pressure system now gains influence over the
region. Mostly clear skies with a few passing high level clouds
were over the area.

Model forecasts are in good agreement to having the upper level
ridge of high pressure remaining as the dominant weather force for
the next few days until Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually
warm up between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. The next quick
moving trough will slide along the west coast and into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring some light rain
for the valley and snow for the Sierra. A majority of locations
above 4000 feet may see 1 to 2 inches, with 3 to 4 inches for some
of the higher mountains. Some traffic slow downs are possible, but
major impacts are not expected with this storm system.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Models continue to show an "inside slider" pattern Friday which
means interior NorCal will likely have breezy north winds with
very light Sierra precipitation possible.

High pressure builds across California next weekend, bringing a
strong warming trend on Saturday. The extended forecast for Sunday
into Monday varies with the longer range models. The GFS has
a trough moving into NorCal with a chance of precipitation while
the ECMWF maintains the ridge and dry conditions. In coordination
with our neighbors, we have introduced a slight chance of
precipitation late Sunday into Monday for higher elevations of our
mountain areas.
JBB


&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions over the interior the next 24 hours. North winds
10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts aft 17z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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