Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE



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