Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 260242
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A NICE CLEARING LINE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT THIS EVENING...BUT MORE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST
THAT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT THIS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT LIKELY OR GREATER POPS IN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN POPS...THOUGH THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND CAUSING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENT RISKS AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINS...THOUGH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY STARTING AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
THE SW AROUND TO THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
00Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING OVER
THE AREA FED BY A DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS
MARINE FOG HAS BEEN WELL MIXED WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO BE
1-3 DEGREES ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  BUOY036
REPORTED NORTH WIND AT 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS WITH 5.6 FOOT
WAVES AND INCREASING IN HEIGHT OVER THE PAST HOUR.  CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE/OGLESBY





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