Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010232
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE
DUMPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MOST OF THIS RAIN WAS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW AREAS THAT ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND OVER
CHARLOTTE COUNTY. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE POCKETS DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z
SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT SO
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. I MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR COVERAGE...EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND UPDATED
ZONES WITH THOSE CHANGES SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR REGION WIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH THE
REST OF THE ZONES REMAINING BELOW HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  77  65  78 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




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