Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 110851
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE WEST
COAST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND PLENTY OF
DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE STATE...WITH
OBSERVATIONS AREA-WIDE NOTING CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AND SEVERAL SITES ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST ARE AT FREEZING OR BELOW...AND THE FREEZE WARNING
SHOULD HOLD UP WELL.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DAY
FILLED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THAT
SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE
EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING US MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND IT SHOULD FEEL
RATHER NICE OUTSIDE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
FORECAST. PERIOD WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUND THE BASE
OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PROPEL A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
GULF THROUGH THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS VERY DRY...AND THE
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK. THEREFORE...WILL NOT HAVE ANY
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT RATHER JUST
A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS. WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM
W/NW TO NORTHERLY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE OVER
THE MARINE ZONES OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE MID/LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WE NEVER GET A GOOD
POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...AS IT REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THIS POSITION SHOULD PREVENT OR CERTAINLY SLOW THE
NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING PROCESS...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TO0 SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD 40S TO THE SOUTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...WITH MID/UPPER 30S FURTHER NORTH INTO LEVY COUNTY.
A BIT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF FROST WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT CURRENTLY WOULD APPEAR WINDS STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED OCCURRENCES IN THE
MOST PROTECTED AREAS.

SUNDAY BEGINS A MODERATING TREND AS THE SURFACE  RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOWS THE CAA TO END...AND OUR WINDS
TO COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL BEGIN A
SLOW TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE BACK OVER THE PENINSULA. WILL
GENERALLY BE LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE UP
CONSIDERABLY...WITH CURRENT FORECAST RANGING FROM THE MID 40S FAR
NORTH TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE NEXT AMPLIFICATION TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREE IN THIS AMPLIFICATION...THE AMPLITUDE AND
STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY ARRIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF...WITH THE CANADIAN AND FIM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PAINT SIMILAR CHANGEABLE SOLUTIONS.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT GET TOO DETAILED FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
WILL SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FAR TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT/TROUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
CURRENTLY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH GUIDANCE
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

THE FORECAST RETURNS TO DRY FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS COOL BUT NOT COLD...AND MODERATES QUICKLY.
THEREFORE... TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
BEGIN A CLIMB TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING TO BECOME ONSHORE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4 TO
5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINES UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NIGHTTIME EASTERLY SURGES TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER ERC NOR WIND CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET SO
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS FAR AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 AND AWAY FROM THE COAST
SHOULD STILL EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT.
LIKE TODAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  50  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  68  46  73  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  66  47  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  62  48  67  55 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  65  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  63  53  69  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
     INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA


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