Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 300926
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
526 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SHALLOW FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH NORTHWEST AS FAR SOUTH AS SARASOTA WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FOR TODAY THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION ALLOWING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. FURTHER NORTH SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE
DAY WITH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY EAST
ACROSS POLK COUNTY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. TONIGHT THE SHALLOW FRONT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY WASH OUT OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND DOWN...BUT
COULD STILL SEE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THAT COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID
90S INLAND WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NATURE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD.

.MID TERM (THURSDAY-FRIDAY)...
WE WILL GET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE
DRY AIR HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM LEE COUNTY
NORTHEAST ACROSS HIGHLANDS COUNTY...BUT STILL THINKING MAINLY
SCATTERED STORMS.

I KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUT A BAND OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF...BUT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BRING THEM BACK TO THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST
TO BE OVER 2 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO KICK
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WHICH FOCUSES AFTERNOON STORMS ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT ALLOWING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE AREA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT. TIMING IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SO
KEEPING THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME A BIT DRIER WITH A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD..FMY AND RSW TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME
BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME RATHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE
AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY LEADING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  76  92  77 /  10   5  10  10
FMY  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  40  10
GIF  94  74  95  75 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  74  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  94  67  94  69 /   5   0  10  10
SPG  92  79  90  80 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



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