Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 192318
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A TYPICAL CONFIGURATION OF
THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SEEING A BIT OF A
DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW
ARRIVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED ROUND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS KEPT OUR WEATHER RATHER
QUIET...WITH JUST ENOUGH SUPPRESSION / WARM AIR ALOFT / AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES TO KEEP OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM COVERAGE TO A NEAR
MINIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH THIS GENERALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD
DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SO FAR NONE HAVE LASTED VERY LONG WITH A
SHORT LIFE CYCLE (EVEN FOR PULSE STORMS). AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS WE HAVE ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL EVEN THESE CELLS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF TERRESTRIAL DIURNAL HEATING.

STORMS ARE MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT /TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE PROVIDING THE ADDED FOCUS FOR UPDRAFTS AND
MULTICELL COMPLEXES. THIS BOUNDARY / REGION OF FOCUS MAY DRIFT A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PER MANY NWP
MEMBERS...HOWEVER STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ENHANCED STORM ACTION
REACHING OUR ZONES...BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

AFTER AN UNEVENTFUL OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE
AFTER ANY EVENING STORMS ARE GONE...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE A RATHER HOT DAY THOUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105 IN SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE
JUST A BIT SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
RESPECTED BY THOSE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED STORM NEAR KFMY/KRSW SHOULD FADE QUICKLY BY 01Z AND LEAVE
THE AREA MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL STORM COVERAGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM WILL BE FOR
KPGD...KFMY/KRSW. WILL ADD VCTS AFTER 16Z FOR THESE THREE
SITES...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
APPEARS QUITE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  10  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  76  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  80  93  78  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA




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