Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 280118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
818 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT. AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME OF
THE FOG BECOMING DENSE. SREF/NARRE AS WELL AS THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE AND IN-HOUSE FOG TOOLS ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

HAVE ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT
THESE DETERIORATING TRENDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES SHORTLY TO REFRESH WORDING. WITH ALL OF THE MODEL DATA
POINTING TOWARD A FOGGY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY BY LATER TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE FOG OVER THE LAND AREAS...INCREASING MOIST AIR
OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SOME SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...AND HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
SOME REPORTS OF SOME FOG 15NM OFFSHORE AS I WRITE. GIVEN THIS WILL
ADD PATCHY COVERAGE TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WHERE THE COOLEST SEA SURFACE TEMPS RESIDE...AS WELL AS OVER
THE TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR WATERS. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AFTER 02Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT KFMY AND KRSW AFTER 14Z...WHILE MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY OR CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT SEAS. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CREATE
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE WARMER AIR ON SOUTH WINDS OVERRIDES THE COOLER GULF WATERS.
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG COVERAGE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES AREA EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.