Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 281924
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
324 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
The warm and dry pattern will persist as mid/upper level ridging
and weak surface pressure remain across the region. Low level flow
will remain light allowing a decent sea breeze to develop in the
afternoon and move well inland. Moisture will remain limited so no
precipitation is expected just some more scattered to broken
stratocumulus/altocumulus with daytime heating. Temperatures will
remain above normal with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s
inland Nature Coast to the mid to upper 60s along the coast from
around Tampa Bay southward. Highs on Wednesday will climb into the
middle and upper 80s away from the coast, possibly near 90 in a
few spots, but should remain just below the record highs for the
date. Along the coast temperatures will climb into the middle and
upper 70s then drop back a few degrees as the sea breeze develops.
.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Wednesday night-Tuesday)...
Mid/upper-level ridging over the state on Wednesday night will be
shunted eastward through Thursday night as a closed low/trough
swings into the southeast. At the surface, weak high pressure over
the region for mid-week will weaken as a surface low moves up toward
the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday, with a trailing
cold front moving into the southeast. A fairly light flow with an
afternoon sea breeze for Thursday will give way to a more southerly
flow Thursday night ahead of the front. Global models are fairly in-
line regarding timing of the rain, which looks to be more Friday
afternoon and evening. The front will clear the area by early
Saturday morning, as the upper trough moves quickly off the east
coast into the Atlantic.
Ridging will quickly build back in aloft for the weekend as another
trough or closed low shifts into Texas on Sunday. The overall
weather for both Saturday and Sunday over our area will be quiet,
with not much expected in the way of rain chances. Temperatures will
remain on the warm side, and could even approach 90 degrees in some
spots over the interior on Sunday with the building ridge.
The forecast for Monday and Tuesday of next week remains rather
uncertain, as global models continue to show different solutions
regarding timing and strength of the next trough and surface low.
Given this, will stick with a persistence forecast given that we are
still a week out with this system.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with the
possibility of some MVFR visibilities at LAL and PGD late tonight.
Otherwise, the light flow will persist with a shift to westerly
for coastal terminals this afternoon and again during midday and
early afternoon Wednesday as the sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Winds at PIE may briefly shift to northeast/variable
around midday Wednesday with the initial bay breeze before the
Gulf sea breeze arrives and turns winds westerly.
The rather light east to southeast winds overnight and during the
morning hours will shift to onshore with the sea breeze near the
coast each afternoon through Thursday. A cold front will approach
Thursday night into Friday bringing an increase in southerly winds
to cautionary, possibly advisory levels, and a potential round of
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds
will shift to west and northwest and diminish behind the boundary
Friday night and Saturday.
Warm and dry weather will continue through Thursday with a wind
shift to westerly each afternoon with the development of the sea
breeze. Relative humidity will briefly approach 35% away from the
coast the next couple of afternoons, but extended durations of low
relative humidity are not anticipated and winds will be generally
light, preventing red flag conditions from occurring.
Fog potential...Patchy fog will develop away from the coast late
each night into the early morning for the next few days, but
widespread or dense fog is not expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 67 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 5
FMY 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 63 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 63 81 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 56 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 69 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle