Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230828
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)...
Low pressure surface and aloft over the Florida peninsula
will gradually push east today and tonight exiting east of
the region. High pressure will build over west central and
southwest Florida on Friday in the wake of the low pressure
system.

High risk of rip currents today at area beaches from
Pinellas county south through Sarasota county.  Mostly
cloudy skies across the region this morning with scattered
light showers mainly over the interior. Areas of early
morning fog which may be locally dense will lift by mid
morning. A chance of light showers today with the best
chance over the interior. Decreasing cloudiness this
afternoon and this evening with skies becoming partly
cloudy. High temperatures today 75 to 80. Patchy fog will
develop tonight which may become locally dense around
sunrise.

Partly cloudy skies with continued mild temperatures on
Friday. High temperatures in the upper 70s near the coast to
the lower 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Thursday)...
 A fairly progressive pattern will take shape during the
medium and long range period, allowing several frontal
systems to move across the region. Despite the possibility
for a couple of frontal passages, rather meager deep layer
moisture will be present, and the potential for soaking rain
looks rather low. Instead, we will likely see a couple of
brief smatterings of showers and perhaps a storm or two in
the mix.

 The first cold front will arrive late Saturday and
Saturday night. This front looks to be mostly dry, bringing
only a low chance of showers to the Florida panhandle and
far northern Florida. This front will shift southward as an
upper level cyclone intensifies across New England, bringing
slightly cooler and drier conditions for Sunday.

 For the first half of next week, strong surface ridging
will build in behind the cold front, with stable and dry
conditions much of the week. Abundant sunshine and easterly
flow will generally allow for little in the way of a sea
breeze. This combined with weak upper ridging will yield
afternoon temperatures on the order of 10 to 15 degrees
above normal, with widespread highs in the mid 80s. A few
areas may even approach the 90 degree mark across southern
interior sections of the peninsula heading toward mid week.

 Another cold front looks to approach the region Thursday
into Friday of next week. By this time, sufficient moisture
may return to allow for a band of showers and a few storms
to sweep across the peninsula as the front progresses
southeastward. This timeframe looks to hold the next best
potential for more widespread rainfall, though amounts look
quite unimpressive at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys this morning vcnty all terminals
with LCL IFR cigs/vsbys over the interior vcnty LAL and
possibly PGD. Cigs/vsbys will improve this morning with
VFR conditions expected this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds over the northern and central waters at exercise
caution levels this morning, but the gradient will weaken
this afternoon allowing winds to subside. High pressure will
hold over the waters Friday and Saturday. A cold front will
move across the waters Saturday night, and winds may
approach advisory levels for several hours in the wake of
the front. High pressure will push east of the area early
next week with winds veering southeast over the waters and
gradient tightening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards expected. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels today and Friday.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  63  80  64 /  20  10   0   0
FMY  80  62  82  64 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  78  63  83  62 /  40  10  10  10
SRQ  79  63  82  63 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  80  60  83  57 /  30  10   0  10
SPG  78  64  79  65 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through
     late tonight for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
UPPER AIR...99
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin



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