590
FXUS62 KTBW 112328
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Much drier air has begun to infiltrate the state behind the frontal
boundary. From Tampa Bay northward, dew points have fallen into the
50s and 60s. Locations in SWFL are still seeing dew points in the
70s. The dry air will continue to make its way south overnight and
during the day tomorrow, nearly everyone across the Sunshine State
will experience RHs in the 30-40% range. Heat will remain across the
state, but hopefully the drier air will make it more tolerable.
Quiet weather pattern overall with no adjustments to the forecast
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Winds will diminish and turn more
northerly during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning. During
the afternoon hours, winds will become westerly with the sea
breeze.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Drier air continues to advect into the area in the wake of the
frontal boundary from this morning, but lingering moisture may
be enough to spark a few storms across far southern interior
areas, though this chance is rather low as better sea breeze
convergence is expected to occur on the eastern side of the
peninsula. Other than the low PoPs for far southern interior
areas, the rest of the day will be dry for the remainder of the
region with a decreasing trend in dewpoints through this evening.
While the post-frontal airmass will not offer too much in the way
of relief regarding the warm temperatures for Mother`s Day
tomorrow as highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s
with ridging building aloft, the lower humidity values should
remain in place through the end of the weekend which before the
more humid conditions make a comeback by next week. It should also
be a mostly rain-free day tomorrow with upper level ridging in
place but models show increasing mid/upper level moisture will
yield an increase in cloud cover in the northwest flow aloft so
can`t rule out a few light showers/sprinkles across southern
interior areas if enough moisture can return during peak heating
hours, though PoPs are generally less than 20%.

The new week will begin with ridging aloft quickly shifting off to
the east ahead of a shortwave trough swinging across the mid
Mississippi Valley. As surface high pressure shifts out into the
Atlantic, low level south-southeast flow will bring a return of
deeper moisture and an opportunity for scattered showers and
storms on Monday, mainly driven by sea breeze activity.
Precipitation coverage will increase further by Tuesday,
particularly for the northern half of the forecast area, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough pushes into the TN valley and the
associated cold front sweeps across the Gulf Coast states. While
there remains uncertainty in the evolution of convective activity
with this system, it looks like there is a possibility for at
least one or several waves of convection on Tuesday that could move
across the northern portions of Florida where the better dynamics
are expected to be. Strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out
with this activity as models show that plenty of shear and good
instability is expected to be in place, but specifics in details
will be hard to resolve at this time. Rain chances should
gradually increase southward into Wednesday as the frontal
boundary drops into the central peninsula and stalls into late
week around the northern portions of the state. As the frontal
boundary lifts back north of the area, weak ridging appears to
move back in and this should yield lower rain chances late week,
though there will still be more than enough moisture in place to
support at least some rain chances with greatest coverage expected
to occur during peak diurnal heating. While the weak ridging late
week may support a brief period of lower precipitation coverage,
models show a southern stream disturbance approaching the region
by next weekend, which is reflected in the ongoing forecast as
PoPs will be on an increasing trend by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  90  75  92 /   0  10   0  30
FMY  71  92  72  94 /   0  10   0  20
GIF  67  92  72  95 /   0  10   0  40
SRQ  70  91  72  93 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  62  91  67  95 /   0  10   0  30
SPG  75  90  77  90 /   0  10   0  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn