Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 171821
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
121 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
Fairly flat upper ridging from the W Gulf extends over the FL
Peninsula into Saturday as first in a series of upper troughs swings
into the Mississippi River Valley. Atlantic seaboard surface high
pressure moves into the W Atlantic Saturday with NE low level flow
slowing veering S. Dry sensible weather with some patchy fog
possible overnight especially in fog prone areas while comfortable
seasonal temps continue.

.MID-LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Thursday)...
Upper longwave trough moving from the Great Lakes into the Deep
South Sunday pushing surface cold front over the area from early
Sunday morning Nature Coast then through West Central and Southwest
Florida during the day Sunday. Only expect narrow band of showers
ahead of and along front in the 30-50% POP range N of I-4 corridor
and 20-30% POP low QPF range S of I-4 corridor. NW flow aloft to
quickly filter cool Canadian high pressure area into the region for
breezy, cool and dry air Sunday Night and Monday while temps drop
slightly below average.

Upper trough and next storm system to develop in W Gulf Tuesday with
series of upper systems remaining in the region through
Thanksgiving. Atmosphere to quickly moderate with increasing rain
chances Tue through mid week while some model uncertainty continue
but still expect unsettled pattern through the holiday with temps
near seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to continue this afternoon, tonight into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure and relaxed gradient for light winds and slight
seas through Saturday. A cold front will quickly move through the E
Gulf Sunday with increasing NW winds and seas as a strong Canadian
high pressure area builds into the region producing SCEC to SCA
conditions late Sunday, Sunday Night and into Monday. That high
pressure area quickly moves into the W Atlantic into Tuesday ahead
of next week`s Gulf storm system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  61  78  65  77 /   0   0  10  30
FMY  61  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  57  80  60  78 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  60  76  64  76 /   0   0   0  30
BKV  53  79  60  76 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  62  78  65  76 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM...25/Davis



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