Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 091357
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
857 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

...A wet and cool December morning for much of the area with
temperatures from 46 to 62 degrees across the area...

Current forecast is on track so only minor tweaks.

.UPDATE...
Rain accumulations of 0.01-0.06 inches with 0.14 inches from
Crystal River to The Villages. The rain developed from mid
level over running.

Dry air below 10 KFT last evening has moistened up considerably
due to virga and light rain falling through the layer. The morning
Ruskin sounding showed a frontal inversion at about 1500 feet with
1.5 inches of precipitable water while further north the the
Tallahassee sounding showed 4500 feet with 0.50 inches. The light
rain was beginning to end in Levy and will end from north to south
throughout the afternoon.

High temperatures this afternoon to approach record lowest highs
for this date. Cold tempeatures of 45 to 50 north of Tampa will
warm into the upper 50s when the sun comes out. Temperatures in
southwest Florida will remain in the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

The record coldest high temperatures for today are below:
  - Tampa 50 in 1917
  - Saint Petersburg 60 in 2010
  - Lakeland 61 in 2010
  - Ruskin 62 in 2010
  - Sarasota-Bradenton 61 in 2010
  - Winter Have 62 in 2010
  - Punta Gorda 62 in 2010
  - Fort Myers 59 in 2010

.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
A cold front continues to slide southward across the region.
Moisture riding up over the front will continue to generate broken
VFR mid level ceilings, and occasional showers. Winds will remain
gusty for terminals near the coast. By 00z Sunday, drier
conditions are expected with a continuation of broken mid and
upper level clouds.

MARINE...
Winds over the Gulf waters will run around 20-25 knots through
Saturday afternoon with seas of up to 8 feet. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect. Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor are in
a Small Craft Exercise Caution. Winds and seas will gradually
subside Saturday afternoon into the early next week, although
periods of continued cautionary or advisory level conditions will
be possible through Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Levy and Citrus Counties will be just below Red Flag criteria this
afternoon. They meet the humidity and ERC criteria but afternoon
sustained winds will be below 15 mph. Moisture will gradually
increase during the weekend, with no further fire weather concerns
expected during the next several days.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach
     to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/Noah
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVERS...74/Wynn



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