Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 291431 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS SOME MORNING CONVECTION
MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL STAY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

WILL MONITOR FORECAST AS SITUATION PLAYS ITSELF OUT. FOR THE
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY WINDS WERE MADE ALONG WITH THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF LEE
COUNTY AROUND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DUE TO A
WILDFIRE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT RSW...WITH OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED THE MOST. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT THOSE NEAR THE COAST...PIE/TPA/SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO
SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES THEIR AREA.
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS COULD CREATE CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  73 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  50  40
GIF  90  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SRQ  89  71  90  73 /  30  20  40  40
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  20   0  50  30
SPG  88  72  90  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON


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