Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 241752
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1052 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Little updates needed this morning. Cold front has pushed through
the region with precipitation diminishing behind it. Lowered the
PoPs across the southwest to account for this timing. Precip may
still linger across the Rocky Mountain Front today in moist
westerly flow...with snow levels around 4000 feet. This could also
cause some increased cloud cover downstream. Winds will also not
be as high today...although some areas could be breezy. Similar
conditions will be found for Saturday. Sunday night into Monday
will be our next chance of precip. Anglin

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

It remains mild and mostly dry today through Sunday morning, as a
brisk westerly flow aloft develops over the region. Sunday
afternoon, an upper level disturbance will move across Southwest
MT, producing rain or snow showers and bringing in cooler
temperatures for early next week.

&&


.AVIATION...
Updated 1800Z.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.
Some sites may see breezy winds continue...however...gusts will
not be as high as recent days. A mid to high level cloud deck is
also possible throughout the forecast period. KEKS could see some
lower clouds and perhaps patchy fog build in overnight tonight
into early Saturday morning. Confidence is low to moderate...and have
placed some brief IFR to MVFR clouds to account for this
potential. With continued fast flow aloft...some mountain wave
turbulence is also possible through the forecast period. Anglin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 415 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017/

Today through Sunday...

A pair of upper-level disturbances, one moving across northern
Montana and the second skirting far southern Montana, will exit
the region today. This will allow strong winds and most shower
activity to diminish across north-central and southwest Montana,
leaving mostly dry and mild conditions across the region today
through Saturday early afternoon as low-amplitude anticyclonic
flow continues in the upper levels over the region. A Pacific warm
front skirts mainly western Montana late Saturday afternoon into
the evening and will bring a brief chance of some light rain
showers or mountain snow to primarily higher elevations. A better
push of moisture Sunday as a large-scale upper level system enters
the PacNW will mean more clouds and a greater chance of showers,
though there is still a large degree of uncertainty currently.
Winds are expected to increase in the typical windy areas along
and just downwind of the interface between the mountains and
plains Sunday. CC

Sunday Night through Friday...
Temperatures look to be seasonably mild with occasionally breezy
conditions continuing as a progressive pattern takes shape next
week, with the potential for unsettled weather continuing into at
least the first part of Monday before upper ridging moves
overhead. The next weak system looks to move through quickly
Tuesday night into Wednesday before broad upper ridging builds
just to our south late Wednesday through Thursday. Models begin to
diverge toward the end of next week, with some models depicting
increasing moisture ahead of a low pressure system just off the
PacNW coast. CC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  33  49  40 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  46  30  46  32 /  10   0   0  10
HLN  46  25  45  31 /  10   0   0  10
BZN  47  21  44  30 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  41  22  37  27 /  40  10  10  20
DLN  48  23  46  33 /  20   0   0  10
HVR  52  28  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  47  29  49  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.