Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
610 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

In the short term, upper level pattern shows a trough-ridge-trough
setup from west to east over the CONUS.  Currently, some areas of
fog have developed mainly within the river valleys of northeastern
Kansas.  With continued radiational cooling and calm winds, it is
expected that more widespread fog will form through daybreak.  It
should burn off into the mid morning hours leaving a pleasant day in
place with high temperatures reaching into the lower 50s for much of
the area.  No weather is expected today or tonight to impact
northeast or east central Kansas, but cloud cover will generally
increase into this evening as well as winds.  This is associated
with a developing Colorado Low.  This feature will quickly deepen as
the trough advances from the west.  Therefore, have winds continuing
to increase into the overnight periods of Monday into Tuesday
morning with low temps into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Heading into the day on Tuesday, as a strong upper level jet advects
over the region quickly developing the low and moving it off to the
northeast.  WAA continues to be strong with winds gusting into the
20-25kt range. This will help give high temps a boost into the mid
and upper 50s ahead of a cold front that will move through northeast
and east central Kansas by late afternoon.  Most of the
precipitation remains confined over very northern portions of the
forecast area as most models have continued to diminish possible
amounts.  So if much precip falls, it will likely be in the form of
rain to begin but could transition to snow quickly into Wednesday
morning.  Only light accumulations would be expected if any snow
does fall and once again most likely near the Kansas/Nebraska
border.  The rest of the week will be quiet weather wise with mainly
northwest flow aloft over the region with minimal moisture in place.
Have kept mention of further precipitation chances out of the
forecast for now as chances are too small and predictability too
low at this point for anything to occur near the end of the week.
With broad trough off to the east of the area, still expecting
temperatures to be more near normal with highs in the 40s and lows
generally in the 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

For the 12Z TAFs, calm and variable winds this morning along with
periods of reduced VIS as low as 1/4 to 1/2 SM mainly for
KTOP/KFOE terminals. Higher VIS expected near KMHK. Winds
generally increasing steadily throughout the day from the SSE
before becoming more steady this evening. Gradient from low
pressure to the west comes into play very late in the period which
should result in stronger winds from the south. LLWS may come into
play too near the end of the period, but have left mention out of
TAFs for now as directional shear change seems small and winds
more uniformly increase with height.




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