Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KTOP 071710
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE 850
MB TROUGH AXIS. 700 MB TROUGH AXIS WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SINCE 06Z
OVER EASTERN KANSAS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL JET BACKS TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASES FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE SOUTH WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 ASSIGNED
THE HIGHEST POPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FACT THAT WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING WILL
BE LOCATED. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS AS IT HAS THE BETTER LIFT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL KEEP THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED OVER MISSOURI AND,
THUS ONLY FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE CLIPPED BY PRECIPITATION.
HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THIS LATTER SOLUTION AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED, THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S. THE CWA LOOKS TO BE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS
THE WAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, HELPING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS WARM FRONT AND
WHERE THE BEST ZONE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE, THEY ALL
SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION SO HAVE
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT WARM-AIR
ADVECTION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING BACK INTO THE 90S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE POTENTIAL MVFR POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCT CU DEVELOPING AROUND 2KFT SHOULD
LIFT SOME DURING HEATING...BUT LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO ADVECT UP
FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...67


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.