Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 291007

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
407 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Deep closed low will remain in place over the Ohio Valley region
with upper ridging ongoing over the central CONUS as the next
upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the
surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great
Plains and deepening low pressure over the west will produce
breezy to windy southerly low level flow over the forecast area
this afternoon. Positive theta-e advection will support weak
instability late this afternoon into this evening over parts of
northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota with a few
showers and thunderstorms possible. Most places will remain dry
with bulk of forcing remaining well of to the west. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the Black Hills again on
Friday. High temperatures today and Friday will be similar, mainly
in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Strong upper ridge axis will cross the cntrl CONUS Sat bringing
continued warm weather and generally dry weather except for
isolated aftn storms over the BH. A west coast low pressure system
will begin to approach the region early next week. Models are
having better agreements on how this system will cross the nrn
Plains...however there could still be shifts in the solution over
the next few days. At this time it looks like this storm could
bring much precipitation to the region...which may include the CWA
depending on where the dry slot develops. Wrap around precip
toward the middle of next week may bring snow to higher elevations
of the BH.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 407 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Breezy SW winds are expected today across the ne WY and wrn SD
plains. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
The only possible exception are near any isolated showers or
storms that may develop tonight across the area.




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