Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 May 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels.  Region 2659 (N13W70, Dao/beta)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 28/1928 UTC and a C1/Sf at 28/2313 UTC, along
with numerous B-class flares this period, but continued to show signs of
minor decay and consolidation.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (29-31 May).  There is a chance for additional isolated
C-class flare activity on days one and two (29-30 May) as Region 2659
approaches the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels this period in
response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity associated with the
arrival of the 23 May CME.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
over the next three days (29-31 May) in response to the enhanced
near-Earth solar wind environment associated with the passage of the 23
May CME.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background
levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected to continued, but weakening influence of
the 23 May CME.  Solar wind speed values slowly decreased throughout the
period from around 400 km/s to end-of-period values near 350 km/s.
Total field strength values decreased from a peak of 21 nT early in the
period to around 12 nT late in the day.  Bz rotated from a peak of -20
nT early in the period to +10 nT by the end of the period.  Solar wind
density hovered at around 10 particle/cubic cm this period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated, but continue a slow
decrease on day one (29 May) as CME effects wane.  Background solar wind
parameters are expected on days two and three (30-31 May) with the
return to a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm
levels through mid-period with quiet to active conditions observed
through the latter half of the period, all due to the weakening
influence of the 23 May CME.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through
midday on day one (29 May) due to continued CME effects.  Generally
quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of day one through day
three (29-31 May) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.


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