Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2546 (S07W49, Hhx/alpha) was the
only spotted region and produced just a few B-class flares. The regions
magnetic gradient remained weak and no growth was observed.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares all three days (24-26 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 516 pfu at 23/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, over the next three
days (24-26 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind and IMF environment were indicative of waning positive
polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed began the period at about
550-600 km/s, before decreasing to end-of-period speeds between 425-450
km/s. Total field strength was between primarily 3 to 5 nT and the Bz
component had a minor southward orientation the first half of the
period, before becoming primarily northward after 23/1200 UTC. The phi
angle was in a positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to continue decreasing to near ambient
background conditions on day one (24 May) as the positive polarity CH
HSS rotates out of geoeffective position. A solar sector boundary change
(SSBC) into a negative (towards the Sun) sector is expected late on day
two (25 May), with a weak CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS to
disturb the IMF later on day three (26 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet on day
one (24 May), with an unsettled response expected later on day two (25
May) due to a slightly disturbed IMF associated with the expected SSBC.
Day three (26 May) is expected to elicit an isolated period of active
response late in the day due to effects from a CIR and subsequent CH
HSS.


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