Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued to be very low. Region 2638 (N18E49, Dso/beta)
underwent little change and produced several B-class flares. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for C-class
flares all three days (22-24 Feb).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with
a max flux of 1,109 pfu at 21/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be from normal to
high on day one (22 Feb) and decrease to normal to moderate levels on
days two and three (23-24 Feb) due to influences from CH HSS onset. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds were from 400-450
km/s. Total field strength ranged from 3 to 7 nT while the Bz component
was mostly variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT.
The phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced late on day
one and persist through day three (22-24 Feb) due to influences from a
positive polarity CH HSS. STEREO A data suggests solar wind speeds near
500-550 km/s associated with the CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to a period of sustained
southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active
periods late on day one (22 Feb) due to CH HSS onset. Day two (23 Feb)
is expected to respond at primarily unsettled to active levels, with an
early isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming likely. Weakening, but
still elevated, solar wind conditions are expected to result in quiet to
active levels on day three (24 Feb).


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