Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels this period due to C-class flare
activity. Region 2615 (S07W33, Dai/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at
05/0607 UTC. The region exhibited minor growth in its trailer and
intermediate spot areas. Region 2612 (N09W89, Hax/alpha) was stable
throughout the period. LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME off the NE limb
from a lifting prominence at 05/1400 UTC. Analysis suggests the CMEs
trajectory was well east of the Earth-Sun line and not expected to
impact Earth. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for C-class flares on day one (06 Dec). A chance
remains for C-class flares on days two and three (07-08 Dec) after the
departure of Region 2612 beyond the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 3,396 pfu observed at 05/1610 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
days one through three (06-08 Dec) due to elevated geomagnetic field
activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced following a solar sector
boundary crossing late yesterday. The phi angle has been predominately
in a positive orientation with some variation to the negative sector. An
increase to 8 nT in Bt was observed with a decrease in density values.
Wind speeds slowly increased through the remainder of the period from
near 290 km/s to 340 km/s.

.Forecast...
The near-Earth solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly
elevated on day one (06 Dec) due to continued weak influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on
days two and three (07-08 Dec) due to the anticipated onset of a
recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. STEREO-A data suggests that wind
speeds in excess of 700 km/s are possible during the onset of this
feature.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(06 Dec) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to
active conditions are forecast on day two (07 Dec) due to the onset of a
negative polarity CH HSS. Day three (08 Dec) is forecast to have as high
as minor (G1) geomagnetic storm levels as the CH HSS peaks.



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