Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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754
FXXX12 KWNP 190031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2687 (S09E18, Hrx/alpha) continued
to decay while Region 2688 (N11, L=238) returned to plage. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flaring throughout the forecast period (19-21 Nov).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 2,355 pfu at 18/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 19-21 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a
return to ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt)
remained below 5 nT while the Bz component was variable. Solar wind
speeds steadily declined from 450 km/s to near 390 km/s by the periods
end. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed over the next
three days (19-21 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. A CIR is expected ahead
of a positive polarity CH HSS on day one (19 Nov). Enhancements are
expected to persist over day two (20 Nov) and begin to wane by day three
(21 Nov).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to active levels on day
one (19 Nov) due to the onset of CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected to persist over days two and three (20-21 Nov)
as CH HSS effects persist.



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