Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 210030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2171 (S10E53, Dao/beta) and
new Region 2172 (S09E75, Hrx/alpha) both produced C1 flares at 20/1254
UTC and 20/1714 UTC, respectively.  Slight growth was observed in both
regions during the period.  Region 2173 (S15E65, Hrx/alpha) was also
numbered during the period.  Other activity included an approximately 15
degree eruptive filament centered near N13W03 that could be seen lifting
off the visible disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 20/0515 UTC.
At this time, no definitive Earth-directed coronal mass ejection was
observed with this event.  Further analysis is ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-Minor)for the next three days (21-23 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (21-23 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (21-23 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions continued under the influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Total field continued
to decrease from 10 nT to 4 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-
7 nT.  Solar wind speed increased through the period from approximately
428 km/s to near 600 km/s.  Phi angle was mostly in a negative (towards)
sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to decrease through day one (21 Sep)
as CH HSS effects wane.  Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on
day two and through most of day three (22-23 Sep).  By late on day
three, a potential solar sector boundary crossing, observed during the
previous rotation as well as in STEREO B Mag and Plastic data, could
cause a slight enhancement of the magnetic field.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods observed at a few stations.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance
for active periods on day one (21 Sep) due to continued CH HSS effects.
A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on day two (22 Sep).  By
late on day three (23 Sep), a potential solar sector boundary crossing
is expected to cause quiet to unsettled conditions.



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