Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 300034
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 30 0033 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued to be very low with only B-class flares
observed from all three spotted regions. Region 2644 (N12W09, Eso/beta)
decreased slightly in area and its intermediate spots dissipated. The
region spread further E to W and SDO/HMI-Intensitygrams indicated a
weakened magnetic gradient and absence of shear. Region 2645 (S10E29,
Dsi/beta) grew in area and gained intermediate spots with an overall
increase in penumbra coverage. Intensitygram imagery revealed a
tightened magnetic gradient, but the region remained in a simple bipolar
configuration with only minor shear present. Region 2646 (N06W83,
Axx/alpha) reemerged as a unipolar spot.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) all
three days (30 Mar-1 Apr). This forecast accounts for the weakening
trend of Region 2644 and growth and increased flare probability of
Region 2645.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly decreased to normal levels
early, before increasing to high levels most of the period. The maximum
flux reached was 29,502 pfu at 29/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels
all three days (30 Mar-1 Apr) with a chance for very high levels on days
two and three due to continuing CH HSS influences. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three
days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a continued CH HSS regime.
Total IMF strength held steady, primarily from 3 to 5 nT. The Bz
component became more directionally variable with a few periods of
prolonged southward orientation. Solar wind speed ranged from 675-750
km/s until about 29/0930 UTC, when it decreased slightly to around
600-625 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the
Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated, as the negative
polarity, southern polar CH HSS extension is anticipated to continue
connecting with Earth through day one (30 Mar). Recurrence data and
recent WSA-Enlil model runs suggest a re-connection with the southern
polar CH HSS on day two or three (31 Mar-1 Apr), which may elevate solar
wind speeds further.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly active, with a few quiet to unsettled
periods, as CH HSS influences continued.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to react with primarily unsettled to
active levels, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming likely on
day one (30 Mar), due to the continuing elevated solar wind speeds of
the CH HSS. The overall planetary response on days two and three (31
Mar-1 Apr) is expected to be unsettled to active, with a chance for G1
storm levels, as CH HSS influences continue.



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