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FXXX12 KWNP 280030

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Oct 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2603 (N13W81, Dao/beta) underwent
some decay and was inactive. Two additional, weak spot groups appeared
during the period but we await additional ground-based observatory
reports and an adequate length of time to warrant region assignment. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (28-30 Oct) as Region 2603
remains the most likely source, but rotates beyond the limb by day two.
However, analysis of STEREO-A/EUV imagery indicted a possible active
region could rotate into Earth view along the NE limb by day three,
continuing the slight chance of C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels through the
period, with a max flux of 47,726 pfu at 27/1530 UTC, due to effects
associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high to very
high levels all three days (28-30 Oct) due to continuing CH HSS effects.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a continued CH HSS regime.
Solar wind began the period at speeds of about 650-700 km/s and
unsteadily decreased to end of period speeds between 550-600 km/s. Total
IMF strength was primarily between 4 to 5 nT. The Bz component was
variable, but predominantly negative, with a few prolonged periods of
southward direction. The phi angle was mainly positive (away from Sun).

Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated all three days (28-30
Oct) as the positive polarity, polar connected CH HSS rotates out of
geoeffective position, while another positive polarity, isolated CH HSS
rotates into an Earth-connected position. Solar wind speeds are
anticipated to continue a slow, unsteady decrease over the forecast
period, but remain elevated with speeds likely remaining greater than
450 km/s as CH HSS influences continue.


.24 hr Summary...
The overall planetary geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to
minor (G1-Minor) storming levels through the period due to effects from
the elevated solar wind speeds of the CH HSS, along with periods of
favorable IMF.

The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with primarily unsettled to
active levels, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming likely on
day one (28 Oct) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Days two and three
(29-30 Oct) are forecast to see a decreased level of response with quiet
to active levels expected, with a decreasing chance for G1 storming both
days under the weakening influence of the elevated, but slowly declining
solar wind speeds of the CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.