Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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611
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Aug 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was
observed this period.  Regions 2579 (N12W37, Axx/alpha) and 2580
(S18E09, Hsx/alpha) were in decay this period while Region 2581 (N12E22,
Dao/beta) exhibited minor growth.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares over the next three days (27-29 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,330 pfu observed at 26/1620 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
over the next three days (27-29 Aug) and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast
period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS this period.  Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from
initial values near 550 km/s to end-of-period values near 440 km/s.  Bt
was steady near 5 nT, Bz briefly reached -6 nT early in the period, and
the phi angle was steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector
orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at near-background levels
until late on day two (27-28 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day two
(28 Aug) through day three (29 Aug) due to the onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Wind speeds are expected to increase to around 600-650
km/s as the CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was unsettled early in the period followed by
quiet conditions due to waning CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through late on day two
(27-28 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime.  Unsettled conditions are
expected late on day two (28 Aug) due to a solar sector boundary
crossing followed by the initial onset of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR).  Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are
expected on day three (29 Aug) due to CIR and CH HSS influence.



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