Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 152116

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
416 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Above Normal Flood Risk Through the Remainder of February...

Normal flood potential means at least some flooding is possible.
Above normal flood potential means more widespread flooding is
possible with some points possibly reaching moderate or major
flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture
and expected precipitation.

Little to no snowpack remained over the region.

Streamflow was generally near to above normal for area
tributaries, and above normal for the Ohio River.

There is minimal to no ice on area rivers.

Soil moisture per measurements from the Natural Resources
Conservations Service and modeled soil moisture for the region
was above normal for mid February.

Area reservoirs were operating very near optimum flood control
capacity, with lake levels just slightly above winter flood
control pool level.

Over the next 7 days, several rounds of rain will push through the
basin. With recent rainfall having elevated river levels, these
additional rounds of rain are likely to produce at least minor
flooding along some tributaries, with an elevated risk of minor
flooding along the Ohio River as well. There is at least some risk
of some locations reaching moderate flood elevations.

This trend of above normal precipitation will continue into week 2
of the outlook period, with the Climate Prediction Center 8 to
14 day outlook is projecting above normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation. So risk for minor flooding does remain
generally below normal for week 2 of the outlook period as of this

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio...Northern Kentucky
and Southeast Indiana can be found at


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