Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 252008
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
The primary impetus for fire weather concerns will be a slow-moving
cut off low that will traverse the southern Rockies and adjacent
Plains through D6/Thu. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this
low will combine with areas of dry low-level conditions and dry
fuels for areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
(primarily in parts of New Mexico and west Texas) through D5/Wed.
Around the D7/Fri time frame, another mid-level disturbance will
spread very strong mid-level flow into the same regions, suggesting
another increase of fire weather potential although confidence at
this range is low due to model discrepancies at that time range.
...D3/Mon through D4/Tue - Portions of the Southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains...
Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely
in portions of the region - especially in southeastern New Mexico
and far west Texas on D4/Tue afternoon. These conditions will be
supported by a continued dry near-surface airmass and areas of
downslope in the lee of the higher terrain in conjunction with
vertical mixing of stronger flow aloft. Latest models have depicted
substantially higher surface RH values in much of the region,
however, which has necessitated some spatial refinement of the
ongoing 40% and 70% delineations.
...D5/Wed - West/Southwest Texas...
As the mid/upper cut off low migrates east across the region, a dry
airmass will develop eastward into more of southwest and central
Texas during D5/Wed afternoon. Although this would initially
suggest a heightened fire weather threat, models suggest that a
broad area of widespread wetting rainfall will occur on D4/Tue,
which lends considerable uncertainty regarding receptiveness of
fuels to fire spread. The 40%/elevated fire weather delineation has
been confined areas that are expected to remain relatively rainfree
in advance of the period of greatest fire weather concern.
...D7/Fri - Southern New Mexico, Far West Texas, and Southeastern
Although model spread at this timeframe is relatively high, guidance
does hint at higher-end fire weather potential in the region as very
strong flow aloft overspreads the region in conjunction with a dry,
warm low-level airmass. A 40%/elevated area has been added for this
outlook, and the region will likely be refined in later forecasts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...