Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FNUS28 KWNS 252115
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

UPPER PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE
A DEEP...NEGATIVELY-TITLED TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...RIDGING
ALONG THE ROCKIES...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SRN CA. UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD IN THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE
THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE CNTRL
PLAINS ON D4/WED. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH AHEAD
AND BEHIND A RESULTANT COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. RH
VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT SHOULD TEMPER ANY CORRESPONDING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST EARLY ON
D5/THU WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING CLOSELY IN ITS WAKE.

FARTHER W...ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA COAST AFTER D5/THU. WHILE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...ITS STRENGTH AND EWD PROGRESSION ARE
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY.
ADDITIONALLY...TODAYS MODEL RUNS DEVELOP AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CA THIS WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW PRECLUDES MUCH FORECAST CONFIDENCE AFTER D6/FRI.

OVERALL...FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

..MOSIER.. 01/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.