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FNUS28 KWNS 262011
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SUPPRESSED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ERN STATES WILL BUILD WWD
AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS FROM D3/SUN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
CA INTO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES AROUND D5/TUE
INTO D6/WED. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD OVERLIE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM D5/TUE THROUGH AT LEAST D7/THU.

...D5/TUE - D7/THU: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS
NRN CA AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES
BEGINNING ON D5/TUE. AN ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS APPEARS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WRN/NRN GREAT BASIN AND THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS...AS MODEL GUIDANCE PRIOR TO CURRENT 12Z
RUNS HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. REGARDLESS...IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...40
PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS SOME
PORTION OF THIS REGION FOR D5/TUE. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY ALSO BE A
VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON D5/TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN SIERRAS INTO THE SRN CASCADES AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN BOTH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION AND A
SUFFICIENTLY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A 10
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

FOR D6/WED AND D7/THU...CONFIDENCE IN WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS GENERALLY LOW...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE CONCERNING THE AMPLITUDE AND LOCATION OF WRN CONUS UPPER
TROUGHING. REGARDLESS...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER
AT LEAST PART OF THIS REGION...AND A NARROW SPATIAL/TEMPORAL OVERLAP
OF LOWERED RH VALUES...DRY FUELS...AND STRONG/GUSTY SFC WINDS MAY
DEVELOP BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOONS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OVERLAP OCCURRING IN THIS EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME...WILL DEFER
INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO A LATER OUTLOOK.

..GLEASON.. 08/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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