Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 291949
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK COULD BECOME ENHANCED FOR D7/THU AND D8/FRI
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
ANTECEDENT DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SFC WINDS YIELD CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL...PRECLUDING
PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS.

OTHERWISE...LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
MODEST OVER AREAS OF DRY SFC CONDITIONS RELEGATED TO THE SWRN
CONUS...FROM D3/SUN THROUGH D6/WED. THIS WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
AFFECT PARTS OF SWRN NM ON D3/SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING
SEGMENT OF A MID-LEVEL WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM...THOUGH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY.

..COHEN.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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