Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS21 KWNS 191524
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
A few areas of locally elevated fire weather conditions also appear
possible in portions of southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas.
Here, westerly surface winds will approach 20 mph (perhaps a few
higher gusts in terrain-favored areas) but RH values will generally
remain above critical thresholds (18-25 percent) for most of the
afternoon. An elevated fire weather delineation has been added to
address this threat.
Elsewhere, the remainder of the forecast is on track with no changes
needed. See the previous outlook below for more information.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/
A strong, low-latitude mid-level trough across northern Mexico and
the southwest United States will fracture on Sunday, with a lead
shortwave trough quickly lifting northeast into the central Plains
and a secondary trough closing off and slowly moving east-southeast
toward southern Texas. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur
during the afternoon across northeast Colorado or southeast Wyoming.
Southerly surface winds are expected to ramp up in response to the
aforementioned surface cyclogenesis across northeast Colorado or
southeast Wyoming. Minimum relative-humidity values should fall into
the 20-25% range, with isolated areas falling into the upper teens.
Despite relative-humidity values being slightly on the high side,
given temperatures in the upper-50s to mid-60s Fahrenheit and the
strength of the expected low-level wind fields, fine fuels should
cure enough to support an elevated fire-weather threat for a few
hours during the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...