Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 281613

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Valid 281700Z - 291200Z


No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Gleason.. 05/28/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

A deep-layer cyclone is expected to move slowly eastward into the
northern Great Lakes today, as an embedded surface low over the
Midwest moves northeastward and eventually becomes absorbed into the
larger circulation. Meanwhile, an upper ridge is expected to remain
in place across much of the West. Cooler and less windy conditions
are expected across portions of the Southwest and southern High
Plains in the wake of a cold front, as a surface ridge becomes
established across the area.

...Central/eastern Montana and adjacent northern High Plains
Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are
expected across portions of central into eastern MT this afternoon,
within a dry and windy post-frontal regime. Sustained northwesterly
winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts are expected as the pressure
gradient between the low near the upper Great Lakes and a surface
ridge to the west increases during the day. Meanwhile, confidence
has increased in sufficient warming and mixing to result in
critically low RH across portions of eastern MT. A critical area has
been introduced where confidence is highest in the concurrence of
critical wind speeds and RH. Elevated conditions will surround the
critical across portions of eastern MT and perhaps extending into
northeast WY and western SD.

...Please see for graphic product...

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