Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 220815
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BUILD NWD /INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/ AND WWD /INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN/ THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DAMPEN THE NERN PORTION OF THIS UPPER HIGH WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST IMPINGES ON THE HIGH/S
SEWD EXTENT. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD TOWARDS THE
SRN BC/NRN WA COAST. ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER SE...ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL CA
NEWD INTO NWRN MT.

...EXTREME E-CNTRL CA...CNTRL/NE NV...FAR WRN UT...
DESPITE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S /AT
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AMIDST A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED
ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH /GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH/ AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...FAR N-CNTRL CA...CNTRL/NE ORE...FAR SE WA...CNTRL/SW ID...
TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE FROM FAR N-CNTRL CA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL MT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
TSTM ACTIVITY...FORCED MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL ORE. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET BUT
FAST STORM MOTIONS /OVER 25 KT/ AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY TSTMS. EVEN IF STORMS ARE WET...COVERAGE OF
WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOW AND LIGHTNING AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS
WILL POSE A RISK FOR LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT...SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
ROTATING TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR WIND AND
HAIL -- SEE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN ORE
AND CNTRL/SRN ID...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY WET TSTMS ARE
AGAIN ANTICIPATED BUT SOME DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING AMIDST
DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

..MOSIER.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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