Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 311542
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 31 THROUGH NOVEMBER 5

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC REGION
NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed overnight across
portions of North and Central Texas, and pushed southward over
the Hill Country and Deep South Texas early this morning.
Currently, this activity is moving quickly over Deep South
Texas...which is mainly affecting the Nueces river system right now.
Rainfall amounts have been averaging 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour,
with isolated higher amounts embedded within some of the stronger
storms. As a result, higher than normal rises were noted this
morning across some of the flashier river basins within the San
Antonio River system, however no significant rises (moderate or
greater), have been reported at this time. This system will continue
moving off towards the coast through late morning. No additional
rises are expected with this activity.

Elsewhere, an upper ridge continues to dominate Colorado and New
Mexico, which has allowed a northwesterly flow pattern to set up
across much of Texas. As a result, cool and dry conditions are
expected to continue through early next week.

Over the weekend through early next week, the upper ridge will
begin to flatten out and shift towards the east, as a stronger
upper level system strengthens over the Western US. As this
system moves eastward, it is expected to tap into abundant
moisture associated with Tropical Storm Vance. This has the
potential to bring some significant rainfall to the WGRFC region
late next week. The exact timing and location of possible impacts
are still in question, however we will have additional information
over the weekend and early next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 or less are forecast for portions of southern
Colorado and Deep South Texas

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southern Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches
are forecast for most of the WGRFC region, excluding portions of
New Mexico and Colorado.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is forecast
within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no runoff
is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall forecast over the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. It`s too early to
determine which basin will be the focus for the upcoming rain event
when the remains of Tropical Storm Vance move through the region
ahead of the next cold front on Tuesday. But, as we enter late fall,
river responses will be more likely as vegetation has started to die
off. Therefore, WGRFC will be keeping an eye on this event as it
unfolds.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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