Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 101625
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 10 THROUGH FEBRUARY 15

...DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THRU WEEK INTO WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large high pressure system continues across the western
U.S. and is centered over southern California this morning.  Through
the remaining week, this ridge will persist and move slowly eastward
continuing the northwesterly upper level flow pattern across the
region.  This upper air flow regime may have minor upper air
disturbances rippling through it, but atmospheric moisture will be so
limited that no rain is expected keeping the WGRFC area dry through
Saturday.

By Saturday into early next week, this ridge will be along and just
west of the Rocky Mountains, but flattens considerably with the trek
of an upper level shortwave disturbance across the Pacific northwest
sweeping eastward out of the Rockies across the southern plains.
This will provide sufficient lift and instability with enough
moisture return for rain chances across northeast Texas late
Sunday into early Monday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches
are forecast across northeast Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas.

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat
drier due to the lack of significant precipitation lately and warmer
than normal temperatures.  As a result, it would take a bit more
rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas,
2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is
expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern.  Over New
Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly
confined to the western portions of the state.  No precipitation is
expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
CART2 on the Elm Fork is expected to remain in minor flood stage as
dam releases continue to lower their pool elevation. Dam release
changes are expected next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant precipitation is expected over the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCKEE


$$





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