Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 081634
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1033 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
VALID DECEMBER 8 THROUGH DECEMBER 13
...WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FEW
After a low pressure system brought unusual cold producing freezing
rain and sleet to portions of west and north Texas, a second trough
of low pressure is moving across the Rockies. Well ahead of this
storm, precipitation is again forecast to develop Sunday evening
with the best chances over southeastern Texas and Louisiana. More
snow is also forecast to fall over the mountains of northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado. The precipitation is forecast to
linger over southeast Texas and Louisiana into Monday morning as the
weakening upper low moves through Colorado.
Another upper air disturbance is forecast to move over the Colorado
Rockies again on Monday and will progress southeastward into Texas
Monday evening and Tuesday. Unlike the previous disturbances, the
moisture will be limited with this storm and widespread
precipitation is not expected.
Meanwhile, a closed low is forecast to develop off the southern
California coast and slowly drift eastward into Arizona. Shortwave
disturbances ahead of this system will interact with Gulf moisture
drawn into southern Texas by the low pressure system in the Gulf and
an upper level air flow drawing moisture from the Pacific across
northern Mexico into far west Texas. This system is modeled to
bring precipitation into the Big Bend region moving northeast into
central Texas Thursday evening. As the system eventually spreads out
over the eastern half of Texas and along the coast, light to
moderate totals of precipitation are expected. This system will
exit the WGRFC eastern portions next weekend.
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 f an inch are
forecast along the Texas coast with the heaviest amounts focused
For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for the southern tip of Texas.
For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast for the southeastern half of Texas including Del Rio, San
Antonio and northeast through Killgore and all points south of that
line including the coast.
The drought situation in Texas continues to improve with less than
6% of the state in extreme drought in some isolated areas. New
Mexico is improving as well with only 4% of that state in extreme
drought, however all of New Mexico still remains in some level of
Residual flood conditions exist in the Neches basin on the Neches
River near Neches (NCST2) where the river continues to fall.
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Sabine River at Dewyville is just above bankfull and continues to
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC area rivers are below bank full. No significant
flooding is expected in the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment: