Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 061651
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1151 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

                    VALID JULY 6 THROUGH JULY 11

...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
NORTH TEXAS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that is pulling the frontal boundary south is
currently pushing through the upper northern plains.  The front that
extends over the majority of the central part of the United States
is locally located in the panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas.
Over the next 12 to 18 hours as it pushes south and east storms
should generate along the boundary.  These storms will have
sufficient moisture from air that has been streaming in from the
south all weekend pulling Gulf air into northern Texas and Oklahoma.
The slow progression of this front will keep the rain in the area
for 24 to 36 hours as some models have the front stalling slightly
Tuesday evening.  Rain chances in northern Texas will remain
prevalent well into Wednesday before the front finally pushes far
enough east to not be an impact to the WGRFC area.

The primary threat area is forecasted to stay to the north of the
river systems covered by the WGRFC.  However, slight shifts to the
forecast are possible and significant rainfall may slip into some
areas that are still draining water from the heavy rainfall
from May.  However, the probability of significant widespread
rainfall over the northern Trinity River is low at this time as
Oklahoma and the Red River seem to be in for the majority of the
heavy rainfall.  Additionally, this does not appear to be the
beginning of a rainfall pattern, as the ridge of high pressure will
settle back into place after the front pushes out Wednesday bringing
back dry and warm conditions for the northern portion of Texas.

During this time, monsoonal rainfall over the New Mexico area should
continue and possibly even be slightly enhanced, while the rest of
the WGRFC will have just a slight chance of an isolated shower,
particularly near the Gulf Coast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. A wave of minor
flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad
(TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor
flood levels and falling. Several north Texas lakes are making
changes to releases to return to desired conservation pool levels.

Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor flood stage.
Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs outflow for several
days, but an increase is possible this next week due to increasing
inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty
(LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power generation today.  This
will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and  Bon
Wier this week,

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Guadalupe Basin...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Bloomington
(DUPT2) has fallen below criteria.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash
flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective
activity. Elsewhere, flows tend to be near seasonal with exceptions
noted in specific basins.

Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$





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