Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011721
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

                 VALID FEBRUARY 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 6

...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

 A strong upper disturbance is moving down across the plains in to
the Mississippi valley helping drive a cold front across the WGRFC
area. The front is drying out the majority of WGRFC while providing
the possibility of light rainfall from remaining moisture over the
next five days in southeast Texas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inches is forecast in east Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 is forecast
across southeast Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 is forecast
along the Texas coast.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state
is experiencingmoderate or worse drought (39%), and about 11% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly
two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. With
the exception of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers near
Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2), respectively.  However, flows
along these reaches are slowly falling.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains just above minor
flood level largely due to reservoir releases upstream. Flows will
fall below criteria late week as Toledo Bend shut off one power
generation unit last midnight, but will continue 1 unit until
further notice.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) continues slow fall into
early next week as Lake Livingston Dam releases continue to
incrementally decrease in passing reduced inflows.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Stream flows across the eastern half of WGRFC are near or above
seasonal averages and generally below normal across the western
half. Forecast rainfall today across eastern Texas and late week
across the Texas Gulf Coast could generate some runoff within the
lower Sabine and Neches, and coastal river basins where soils are
saturated, but no significant flooding is expected. Widespread
river flooding is not expected over the next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

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