Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 171535
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1035 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017

                 VALID OCTOBER 17 THROUGH OCTOBER 22

...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEAVING COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry conditions will continue through early Friday, as a
result of upper ridging across the Southeast US. Rivers will
continue to fall across the WGRFC region the remainder of this
week, with no additional rainfall expected through Friday.

The next chance of precipitation is expected Friday/Saturday,
as an upper level disturbance and strong cold front move across
the area. The forecast models show the approaching system being
very progressive, which will lower the chance of any additional
flooding across the state.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 13%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions (mainly over extreme
northeast Texas). In New Mexico, 8% of the state is experiencing
abnormally dry conditions. Very limited rainfall is forecast over
the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Rio Grande above the Rio Conchos confluence (PIOT2) is just
barely above flood stage and expected to remain high for a few days.

...Nueces Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Corpus Christi continues to release but volume has decreased.
Downstream points at Bluntzer (CBVT2) and Calallen (CAAT2) remain
above criteria for the time being, with CBVT2 above flood stage.
The lake is above its conservation pool of 94 feet and inflows from
upstream are slowly decreasing.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently
below criteria levels. No additional flooding is expected over the
next five days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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