Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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905
AGUS74 KFWR 191609
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 19 THROUGH AUGUST 24

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A high pressure ridge has developed across the southern U.S.,
including Texas. This high brought a drying trend to much of Texas,
but locally heavy rainfall was observed along the Rio Grande and
further southward in Mexico during the past 24 hours, and an area of
showers and thunderstorms also occurred west of the DFW Metroplex.

The main focus for rainfall this weekend will be along the western
edge of the WGRFC area of responsibility, including New Mexico,
southern Colorado, far western Texas, and northern Mexico. Some of
the rainfall, especially in southern New Mexico, could be heavy
enough for flash flooding. Other more isolated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each day nearly anywhere in the state
of Texas.

The west should remain in an active monsoon pattern during the
coming week, but the threat for heavy rainfall should be reduced
after Monday. The Gulf Coast of Texas is expected to become more
active starting Monday, and then by the middle of the week,
the chance for organized rainfall chances will be on increase in
northern and central Texas due to the passage of a cold front.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of central and
southern New Mexico, far western Texas, and northern Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for portions of southern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to
1 inch are forecast for much of the rest of New Mexico, for south
central and southwestern Colorado, and for far western Texas into
northern Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of New Mexico and northern Mexico. Lesser MAP
amounts are forecast for the rest of New Mexico, portions of
southern Colorado, and western and coastal Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northern,
western, and central Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 10%, and only 1% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions.  In New Mexico, only 1% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and that is in
the southwest portion. The rainfall forecast the next five days may
be heavy enough to produce runoff in southern New Mexico and
possibly along the Rio Grande in far western Texas. Otherwise, no
significant runoff is expected over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The headwaters of the Sabine are still experiencing minor flood
levels after continuing recent heavy rainfall. Lake Fork is over
its conservation stage and releasing enough water to cause minor
flooding downstream.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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