Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

                   VALID MARCH 27 THROUGH APRIL 1

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL EXPECTED MID-WEEK AND AGAIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A storm system is moving across Kansas this morning.  As this system
approached a dryline became active and brought showers and some
severe storms across north and central Texas.  Rain and snow also
fell over the higher elevations in the mountains of northern New
Mexico and Colorado. Up to 2.00 inches of rain occurred over extreme
north Texas near Sanger and Gordonville.

Now that the system is moving east, drier weather will be in store
for our region today.  But by Tuesday morning we will see the return
of Gulf moisture and the approach of a stronger storm system. A
closed low pressure system is forecast to form near the four corners
region and will begin to affect the western parts of the WGRFC area.
Rain and snow showers are forecast over northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado Tuesday. Further east, west Texas may see
significant convective storm activity from this system by Tuesday
afternoon, resulting in 1 to 1.50 inches of rainfall by Wednesday
morning. As the upper level system slowly slides eastward, widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday
across north and central Texas, and eventually into east Texas and
western Louisiana Wednesday evening. These areas could see 2 to 3
inches of rain by the time the system exits the area early Thursday.
Then as this low passes across Kansas Thursday there may be some
wrap-around rain over extreme north Texas, but otherwise dry weather
will return to the WGRFC area.

A quick break from the precipitation will continue for late Thursday
into early Friday.  But another storm system is forecast to develop
west of the four corners region by Friday evening.  This will begin
to spread rain and high elevation snows to southern Colorado by
Friday night into Saturday morning.  Then this storm system is
forecast to move over New Mexico and bring another round of showers
and thunderstorms to Texas beyond this five-day forecast period late
Saturday into Sunday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast from northwest
New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over extreme southeast
Texas into Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast over central and western Texas into northeast
New Mexico and most of Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of up to 1.50 inches, are forecast over central Texas near
San Angelo. Even heavier rain is forecast over Oklahoma north of our
region.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over most of the WGRFC area except for east Texas and Louisiana and
parts of far west Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast over the eastern third of Texas into Louisiana,
and from northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado into the
northern Texas panhandle.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of up
to 2 inches, are possible across east Texas near Lufkin.  Even
heavier rain is forecast over Louisiana east of our region.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of the
WGRFC area except for southwest Texas.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast across southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast from northern New Mexico into
Colorado, as well as over extreme southeast Texas into Louisiana.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions so far this March have caused
continued soil moisture loss. This is indicated in the current
U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas which showed the area considered
to be abnormally dry at 47%.  Also, 9% of Texas was experiencing
moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe drought. In New
Mexico the Drought monitor shows 56% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with around 7% in the moderate drought
category.  The rainfall forecast the next five days may generate
some minor runoff over east Texas and western Louisiana, but due to
the dry topsoils no significant runoff is expected elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rainfall is forecast across parts of Texas late
Tuesday/Wednesday and at the end of the 5 day forecast period.  WGRFC
is monitoring this situation.  But for now rivers are at or near
baseflow conditions.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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