Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 291647
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

                 VALID AUGUST 29 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 3

...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Two separate systems brought much needed to two different areas of
Texas which needed the precipitation.  The upper level trough pushing
in from the northwest has a cold front in Oklahoma and the panhandle
which fired off storms last night.  The gust front associated with
these storms pushed in forcing storms overnight from north central
Texas and continue to push through into eastern Texas.  This gust
front caused storms that produced as much as 3 inches of rainfall for
some areas with widespread rainfall from a quarter to a half an inch.
This front should continue to push eastward slowly losing momentum as
storm strength dissipates weakening the gust front.  Expect more
storms to develop off this towards the south with the more abundant
moisture, while light rain may continue in the north east Texas area.

The front itself is still pushing in from western Texas as the upper
level trough pushes north east and into a more zonal westerly
pattern.  This front may generate some additional storms and rainfall
for north central Texas and could continue and push towards the
metroplex and Waco area depending on moisture availability and if the
sun can peek out to generate some heating.  So expect scattered
showers for north central Texas through out the day with no flooding
expected from this system.  By tomorrow this disturbance should push
out of the area and zonal flow aloft should bring in dry air aloft
and limit the precipitation potential.

The other disturbance causing significant rainfall in south Texas is
the weak tropical system that has been floating around Brownsville.
This system should progressively work its way inland slowly
throughout the day, but the precipitation will persist through today
and into tomorrow.  This system has already generated areas with 5 to
6 inches of rainfall near the coast with more rainfall threatening
off shore.  The onshore flow is developing both isolated and
widespread rainfall patterns which will raise rainfall values along
most of the coast for the next 24 hours.  While river flooding is not
a concern as of yet, urban areas, small streams, and flash flooding
may be an issue from Houston to Corpus Christi.

The more extended outlook does see a dry zonal flow Monday into
Wednesday.  There is a possibility of another tropical wave
reaching the Bay of Campeche which could bring even more rainfall to
south Texas into next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 inch are forecasted for areas around the coast.  0.5
inches are forecasted for all parts along the coast as well as along
the front south of the metroplex.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 inch are
forecasted by WPC for eastern Texas Gulf coast with 0.5 inches
possible for the entire Gulf coast and eastern Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
forecasted for deep south Texas.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal
flows. Storm activity along the Texas coast is expected to remain
along the coastal basins. Some beneficial rainfall is also occurring
across north and east Texas today. However, no significant flooding
is forecast to occur through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$





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