Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

                   VALID AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 6

...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND. DRIER THIS COMING WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorm rainfall as high as 2 inches fell in portions
of northern and central Texas during the past 24 hours. More
widespread rainfall of up to 1 inch was observed in south Texas and
New Mexico, while the Texas Panhandle had widespread amounts of
1 to 2.5 inches. Late this Saturday morning, significant ongoing
rainfall is limited to far northwestern Texas in the vicinity of
Childress. Another round of thunderstorms is expected by afternoon
and continuing into the night over portions of New Mexico and western
Texas. There is a potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding, especially in New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

An upper level high pressure ridge is anchored over New Mexico and
the Four Corners Region and will continue to dominate the weather
over Texas and New Mexico into next week. This includes generally
hot weather, and a potential for daily shower and thunderstorm
activity, especially in New Mexico and northwestern Texas. Conditions
are expected to become less favorable for widespread rainfall by
Monday, due to a reduction in atmospheric moisture.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northwestern
Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are
forecast for western Texas, and the rest of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
the Texas Panhandle. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of
New Mexico, Colorado, and northwestern Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water
according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been
very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two
months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues
to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days
will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except over the
mountainous areas of New Mexico.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton
into flood stage for the forecast period.  This will be updated as
further release information is acquired from the Corps on their
projections over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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