Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011706
1106 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015



                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Very light precipitation developed early this morning along the
southeast Texas coast. Amounts are averaging less than 0.10 inch
per hour, and this trend should continue the remainder of the day.
No additional significant precipitation is expected through the end
of the week.

Drier air should cover a good part of the WGRFC area, but some
additional light rainfall development can be expected from deep
south Texas into southeast Texas and Louisiana through tomorrow
as the dry air undercuts the lingering moisture. Also, an upper
air disturbance will develop and approach Texas from the northwest.
As this upper disturbance crosses Texas the rainfall will linger
along and near the Texas Gulf coast. After this disturbance moves
east of the WGRFC area on Thursday all the precipitation should
push east of our region. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to
approach our region from the west on Thursday, and this ridge will
move across Texas on Friday into Saturday morning.  As a result,
dry weather is forecast Thursday through Saturday morning.

By Sunday, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to return over the WGRFC region. An upper level disturbance is
forecast to move across the Central Plains early Sunday morning.
This may result in some showers and thunderstorms developing over
the northern portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. This event
is still several days away, however we will continue to monitor and
update accordingly of any changes in this pattern.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less is forecast for portions of the
southeast Texas coast.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Topsoil moisture is very high due to recent rainfall events, which
means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along
with the vegetation being dormant now that the growing season has
ended, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 7% of the state
is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is
abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast through the next five days
will not lead to any additional runoff in spite of the wet soil
moisture conditions and the cold season vegetation patterns.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The upper portion of the Trinity River system above Dallas (DALT2)
is recovering from the heavy rain event over the Thanksgiving
weekend. All points above and including Dallas are now below
moderate flood levels and falling. Flood control reservoirs are
still slowly rising and are very full at this time. Releases from
these reservoirs are expected to begin later this week as the
initial flood wave moves downstream opening room for additional

The main flood wave is now past Rosser (RSRT2) and has arrived at
Trinidad (TDDT2) which has again risen over major flood category.
Chambers Creek (RCET2) is recovering as well and will drop out of
moderate flood level today.  Richland Chambers reservoir has peaked
and should be able to reduce release later this week. All of this
water should push the Trinity River near Long Lake/Oakwood (LOLT2)
into moderate flood level by the weekend and Crockett(CRKT2) into
flood stage next week.

With all this water making its way down the mainstem, the Lake
Livingston area will see another round of high water starting
later this week, but because this rain event happened over many
of the flood control lakes in the DFW area, the forecast is for
the river to not rise as much as this last event.

...Brazos Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Significant rainfall has generated rises on the Brazos River basin.
At this time, moderate river flooding is occurring on the Leon
River at De Leon (DLLT2).  Minor river flooding is also forecast
to occur on the Navasota River near Easterly (EAST2) and on the Leon
River at Gatesville (GAST2). Continued higher flows are occurring
along parts of the mainstem Brazos River and tributaries.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The rain is over and is making its way down the mainstem. The main
wave is at Mineola now and will pour into Lake Fork who is pulling
back slightly on their releases seeing the end of the rain.
Downstream of Lake Fork the release wave during the rainfall will
keep or place sites in moderate flood at Quitman, Hawkins, and
Gladewater.  Toledo Bend will soak up most of the wave so little
impact is expected for the rest of the river.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread rainfall during the holiday weekend across the upper
Neches basins has generated minor flooding along the mainstem
from Lake Palestine and Neches (NCST2) to Diboll (DIBT2).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, river flows are normal to above normal for this time of
year.  No additional rainfall is expected during the next 5 days.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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