Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 201650
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...PRECIPITATION...
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
TO  THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHAMPAIGN IL TO SIOUX FALLS SD TO
PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB.  MEASURABLE SNOW FELL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE NORTHEAST FOUR FIFTHS OF
WISCONSIN...AND MICHIGAN.  ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WERE
REPORTED TO THE AREAS WEST AND SOUTH.  MOST MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
WERE 0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR LESS...BUT IN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FAVORED AREAS AMOUNTS WERE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF LOWER MICHIGAN... THE NORTHWEST THUMB OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND AROUND SAULT STE MARIE MI/ON. UP
TO HALF AN INCH OF NEW WATER EQUIVALENT FELL AROUND GAYLORD MI.
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION REPORT ONCE AGAIN WENT TO BERGLAND MI
WHERE 0.81 INCHES WAS MELTED FROM 13.7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.  THEIR
CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IS 35 INCHES.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEW SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FAVORED AREAS OF MICHIGAN.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN WHERE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.  THE WEST COAST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  DURING THE
WEEKEND...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME
HEAVY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...TEMPERATURES...
THE NCRFC FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY...BUT WARM FRONTS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
ALLOW SATURDAY TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING NEARLY EVERYWHERE.  READINGS
WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
TO 35-40 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. ON SUNDAY THE WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL SURGE NORTHEAST
INTO THE REST OF ILLINOIS AND LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EXPECTED.  ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM
LESS THAN 15 DEGREES IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR 50 OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.  MOST LIKELY THE ENTIRE NCRFC FORECAST
AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AGAIN THE MORNING BEFORE THANKSGIVING.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE NCRFC AREA AT THE MOMENT...
HOWEVER...RAPID ICE FORMATION IN MANY LOCATIONS MAY EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN ERRATIC BEHAVIOR AND JAMMING. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE FLOODING FROM SUCH BEHAVIOR.


FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: RJW JMP DOH

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.

$$

...LNE/DAM...




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